Here’s a good description that drives why we should be obliterating the IRGC instead of a ceasefire. “From 2009 onwards, Ali Khamenei began to double down on the apocalyptic and militaristic doctrine of Mahdism, not least in the IRGC. In doing so, his goal was to nurture more radical generations both within the IRGC and the regime’s hard base, which forms the core recruitment pool for the Guard. Thereafter, the apocalyptic and militaristic doctrine of Mahdism became the focal point in the IRGC’s formal programme of indoctrination, making up more than half of training in the Guard. According to the apocalyptic and militaristic doctrine of Mahdism, the 12th divinely ordained Shia Imam, Mahdi, was withdrawn into a miraculous state of disappearance by God in AD 874. The doctrine claims that the Hidden Imam will one day return to restore justice to the world before the End of Times and, in doing so, will wage an apocalyptic war that will end the lives of infidels and Jews everywhere. Historic Shia narrations, on which this doctrine is based, claim that there will be rivers of Jewish blood, after which justice will be restored globally and the world will be divided into 313 provinces—representing the number of Mahdi’s so-called special commanders. From 2010 onwards, the IRGC’s indoctrinators began to assert that there were barriers to the return of the Hidden Imam and that the IRGC was the “militaristic vehicle” to remove those barriers and speed up his return. According to this doctrine, crafted by some of the regime’s most extremist Islamist clerics—not least the late Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who supervised the Mojtaba Khamenei’s clerical studies—the biggest barrier is the existence of the state of Israel. This is the lens through which the IRGC and the regime’s hard base viewed and communicated the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel. In fact, the operational name given to the IRGC’s strikes on Israel—Operation True Promise—refers to the promise made by the sixth divinely ordained Shia Imam, Imam Sadegh, that the Jewish population would be annihilated at the hands of the holy people of Qom. “Operation True Promise” carries the same connotation as “Final Solution”. Likewise, according to this doctrine, one of the signs of the nearing of Mahdi’s arrival is the apocalyptic destruction of the world, not least Iran. This is precisely why members of the IRGC, Basij and the regime’s hard base constituency have perversely been ideologically stimulated and energised despite the regime suffering serious losses in the ongoing war. The doctrine also claims that, prior to Mahdi’s arrival, there will be a global war against the system of Jahiliyya—an Islamic term referring to a state of ignorance or barbarism, which the regime uses to describe the U.S.-led liberal order. The IRGC has not only framed its current war through this lens, but has also portrayed Putin’s war in Ukraine as part of the same struggle— hence its support for it. These efforts have been successful in nurturing a cult of Mahdism in the IRGC — not least amongst the younger third and fourth generations. Crucially, this is the constituency that is most loyal to Mojtaba Khamenei. Likewise, members of Mojtaba’s own close circle are the leading proponents of this apocalyptic and militaristic doctrine—they are leading figures in this cult. All of this is to say that this cult of Mahdism within the IRGC has been long in the making. Its adherents view the IRGC’s missile, nuclear, and proxy programmes as tools for accelerating Mahdi’s return. For years, Western policymakers dismissed the importance of this doctrine in shaping how the IRGC acts and behaves. Yet many of its actions today—which might otherwise appear irrational—can only be understood within the context of this doctrine. It is shaping the IRGC’s “rationality”: a rationality distinct from the material cost-benefit logic that dominates the secular Western worldview. Not only would it be unwise, but it would be dangerous to ignore this apocalyptic and militaristic doctrine of Mahdism within the IRGC.” - Kasra Aarabi
