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Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

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NDAA 2018 passed House of Reps (much like last year) with:
  SEC. 617. INCREASE IN MAXIMUM.    AMOUNT OF AVIATION BONUS FOR 12-   MONTH PERIOD OF OBLIGATED.  SERVICE.

 Section 334©(1)(B) of title 37, United  States Code, is amended by striking  “$35,000” and inserting “$50,000”.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/2810/text/pcs#toc-H9B96A0BBCDD9434EAE44E3AF62ABBA4B

 

Now...what is the Senate going to do?

 


Last I looked, the Senate version looks to have no raise, and will actually limit the amount for a given "tier" based on that tiers manning level and prior year take rate.
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1 hour ago, ihtfp06 said:


Last I looked, the Senate version looks to have no raise, and will actually limit the amount for a given "tier" based on that tiers manning level and prior year take rate.

 Checks.... both chambers passed their version in early July. 

 

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9 hours ago, ihtfp06 said:


Last I looked, the Senate version looks to have no raise, and will actually limit the amount for a given "tier" based on that tiers manning level and prior year take rate.

 

7 hours ago, osulax05 said:

 Checks.... both chambers passed their version in early July. 

 

Where do you both see that?

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Where do you both see that?

From what I can see, nothing has been passed in the senate yet. You can read the SASC version that's been put to the Senate floor if you google 2018 Senate NDAA. Search the PDF for aviation and you'll find the tier info.

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I hear FY17 take rate is under 40%. Can anyone confirm?

You can get the numbers on RAW through AFPC secure. The numbers are indeed pretty bad (as of 5 sep). Tier 1 (11F) was below 40%, and Tier 2 (11B, 11M, 11S) was barely above. Keep in mind these numbers include the 1 and 2 year takers.

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On 9/10/2017 at 7:37 AM, ihtfp06 said:


You can get the numbers on RAW through AFPC secure. The numbers are indeed pretty bad (as of 5 sep). Tier 1 (11F) was below 40%, and Tier 2 (11B, 11M, 11S) was barely above. Keep in mind these numbers include the 1 and 2 year takers.

The take rate listed on RAW is only for long-term (3+ yr) contracts. The overall long-term take (short term take rate doesn't much matter) is right around 40%.

If short term contracts were included, the overall rate would be a little over 50%. Still not good news.

It's noteworthy that for Tier 2, the 11Bs & 11Ss are bringing up the average. 11Ms are still below 40%. Tanker and C-17 bubbas (the two largest MDS pilot communities) seem especially inclined to get out--they're at about 35% right now.

TT

 

Edited by TnkrToad
accuracy, grammar

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6 hours ago, TnkrToad said:

The take rate listed on RAW is only for long-term (3+ yr) contracts. The overall long-term take (short term take rate doesn't much matter) is right around 40%.

If short term contracts were included, the overall rate would be a little over 50%. Still not good news.

It's noteworthy that for Tier 2, the 11Bs & 11Ss are bringing up the average. 11Ms are still below 40%. Tanker and C-17 bubbas (the two largest MDS pilot communities) seem especially inclined to get out--they're at about 35% right now.

TT

 

Is there public data out there by airframe? I'd like to see a breakdown if it's there.

 

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1 hour ago, flyusaf83 said:

Is there public data out there by airframe? I'd like to see a breakdown if it's there.

 

I don't think it's public. All the data, down to each airframe, is posted on AFPC Secure, though. Go to AFPC Secure, then select RAW. In RAW, select Static Demographics. From the list of all the docs, you'll find one that says FY17 ACP Take Rates (or something like that--I'm not using a CAC-enabled computer right now). They break the data down in about 69 different ways--to include numbers of eligibles and takers (both short and long) for each individual MDS. 

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On 9/11/2017 at 8:38 PM, TnkrToad said:

I don't think it's public. All the data, down to each airframe, is posted on AFPC Secure, though. Go to AFPC Secure, then select RAW. In RAW, select Static Demographics. From the list of all the docs, you'll find one that says FY17 ACP Take Rates (or something like that--I'm not using a CAC-enabled computer right now). They break the data down in about 69 different ways--to include numbers of eligibles and takers (both short and long) for each individual MDS. 

That was an interesting read. 

The take rates are abysmal. Especially for the folks eligible for a second bonus. AF is not going to shore up their pilot numbers with that idea unless they start offering A LOT more money. 

 

Edited by Hunter Rose

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1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

only thing thatll save the AF is a bear economy for a few years...which historically will happen within the next 5-10 years

Even if there is an economic downturn, airline hiring will likely continue at a fairly brisk pace just to cover retirements.  Pilot retention will be a challenge for the foreseeable future.

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36 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Even if there is an economic downturn, airline hiring will likely continue at a fairly brisk pace just to cover retirements.  Pilot retention will be a challenge for the foreseeable future.

I hope so!

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Senate passed the house version with amendments. I didn't see any amendment striking the House's 50k bonus, so hopefully that made it though. Hopefully a full text of what the Senate passed with amendments will be published soon.

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HR2810 did pass by the senate but the passed amendment 1032 sec 617 says bonus is to remain at 35k. So house and senate bills disagree, we'll see what actually gets signed by the POTUS 

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So a conference committee will be formed to resolve differences between the house and senate bills. Then voted by both senate and house before the POTUS signs....I don't know how everyone else feels but, I don't think it will get bumped up this year. Maybe next year after they see their "talks about changes" aren't having an effect on the retention numbers...

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7 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

It won't get bumped until McCain dies or retires.

I may never understand his contempt for compensating the volunteer force sts. 

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1 hour ago, SurelySerious said:

I may never understand his contempt for compensating the volunteer force sts. 

Because you're supposed to cheat on your first wife and then shack up with a millionaire heiress to make your money.

Edited by LookieRookie
Grammar

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Just checked the ACP take rates, and thought I'd note a couple things:

The overall take rate for initial bonus eligibles is still pretty abysmal--barely over 40%. The initial take rates for 11Fs & 11Rs are especially poor--both less than 40%.

A glimmer of hope is that take rates for 11Ss & 11Hs are high (both over 55%). Their take rates have historically always been high, though, so this is hardly cause for celebration.

If one factors in the old guy (NC & CE) bonus takers, though, things change a bit.

More 11Fs have taken the old guy bonus than have initial eligibles; even though the 11F community is undermanned, at least its old farts are willing to hang around. This provides at least some hope that the 11F community might eventually get healthy.

The 11H & 11S communities likewise had healthy old guy bonus take rates. Even though (last I checked) they're chronically undermanned, they will have substantially more stability than they would have otherwise without the old guy bonus.

The 11R & 11M communities are screwed. Not only do they have low initial eligible take rates, but their old guy bonus take rates are abysmal, too. If neither the mid-career guys nor the grey beard O-5 types want to stay in, then all that'll be left in the squadrons will be high career-potential CCs & DOs leading a bunch of O-1s to O-3s who're merely biding their time until they reach the ends of their respective SUPT commitments and can get out. Not a recipe for success, in the near or long term. It'll be especially interesting when AMC starts picking its O-6s and above, not based on quality, but rather on simply who is left and can fog a mirror.

Based on the stats, I presume the same is or will be true in the 11R community--leadership selection by virtue of one's mirror-fogging ability--but as an 11M, I'll just stay in my lane and hope for the best for the C2ISR types.

TT

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