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jice

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jice last won the day on October 20 2018

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About jice

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  1. Golf clap USAF for doing the math on this one. Things to note: 1) The data is based on aviators who entered service from 1990-2000. Those were different times WRT ops tempo and airline hiring was at essentially zero for those folks after completing their commitment. I’d like to see how/if this was addressed in the model. Avoiding cynicism; PMs appreciated from anybody in the know. 2) The conclusion is limited to end strength with no qualitative comparison of pilots. The study mentions a break even number: training a pilot must not cost more than $5.33M in order to realize savings by using retention initiatives.... what does one MC upgrade cost? I’m absolutely certain my training has exceeded that, and I’m literally not qualified to do anything. That to say: more math/data required before we buy the great power competition Air Force based on end strength alone.
  2. Nope, not at all. Your military status is explicitly protected under the law in every state. The spouse’s status is not in any. (Not a lawyer; happy to be wrong.) As far as the spouse’s employer is concerned WRT letting an employee go: being rude or unable to show up on time and being married to a military member are the same. Mods: Sorry, massive derail.
  3. You’re 100% right about the responsibility, but to scoff it has major consequences on retention and quality of those retained. The numbers favor the civilian spouse pretty quickly (year 3-5 of a career) if they are a professional who is even moderately successful. Those slightly above average performing spouses probably didn’t marry slackers, and probably went to slightly above average schools (along with their husbands). Scoffing that means that we leave it up to the numbers, and the numbers almost always win over a “quality of service” offsetting value. So I agree with you Bashi. Instead of giving $500 for certification benefits to offset hundreds of thousands in in opportunity cost (nice try but laughable), let’s just be honest and say that if you want a spouse’s career that’s worth a shit, unless you’re a doctor, nurse, teacher, or unskilled, you’ll have to sacrifice living together, a family, or both. No big deal if you and your spouse are driven to succeed. Plus, you can always get a new family.
  4. True that words are cheap, but they’re also important. I do all the right husbandly things: don’t carouse, take care of things around the house, make it home within 24 hours of when I say I’ll be there after a night out, and almost never accidentally end up drunk, lost, and sans passport in a foreign country more than twice a quarter. She still wants to hear: “I love you.” That and “sure, put it on my Amex, you’ll look great in it.”
  5. Looks more like an abyssinian ground hornbill to me, but Fat Abby isn’t a very tacticool name.
  6. Managing a relationship with a difficult ally isn’t doing their homework; it’s doing the hard work of diplomacy. An approach that includes exclusion to punish would have to be gradual and the intent explicit. Applying pressure using the F-35 program is a great place to start, but a path to improved relations and should be spelled out and actively broadcast to the Turkish people (with or without the participation of their government). Don’t forget that Erdogan’s rise is the result of a not unpopular movement looking to course correct from the reforms of Ataturk. IMO: Drastic action that results in a sudden loss of economic and physical security cedes to Erdogan control of the internal messaging and is likely to look more like a rise in anti-American sentiment, autocracy, and wheelbarrows of money than a trend towards stability.
  7. Seems like Erdogan’s prudent play in a withdrawal of support scenario would be exactly the alignment with Russia (& Iran?) and/or a “Turkey First” approach that includes genocide in the south and a domestic nuclear program. To quote Willy Wonka: “what happened to the man who got everything he ever wanted?” Dead Kurds and a war on Cyprus with a side of nuclear proliferation.
  8. That sounds like an unfortunate deformity. I mean... damn. I feel like we should start a go-fund-‘em
  9. Sportbitching: That’s fine. We won’t need aviators after the 69th iteration. By then the United States Personnel and Base Agency Support Force will be in the capable hands of those who finally got us out of the frivolous business of air power. A moment of thought: This isn’t a college application process where failure to be selected carries forfeiture of a $50 application fee; here it’s a life’s work and associated compensation. Decreasing opportunity for people to effect the organization in which they are considering spending their lives will result in less investment across the board. Opportunity cost vs. relative value. I’d expect that effect to be true in particular amongst those driven to have a meaningful impact with their life’s work. Promotion for quality isn’t simply picking your best folks; it’s convincing your nascent best folks 5 years before the board that if they work hard they’ll be rewarded. Smart people don’t stick around to get f*cked. Delta, state government, the FAA, McDonald’s, and the Church all need fantastic leaders too. Those jobs don’t come with such a narrow temporal window of opportunity, but earlier is generally better. TLDR; Do we value experience in our service’s mission here or not? If so, let’s get the incentives straight. Related: got to fly a fkn fighter jet today. The job in itself is awesome.
  10. FDU guidance doesn’t let me walk around wearing a g-suit, parachute, helmet, survival vest, or full-scale airplane backpack. Taking off or putting on a belt after flight isn’t really an issue. We’re better than getting hung up on that. That said, it would be a shame to lose the bag to an equally or less functional garment. A distinctive flying uniform has its value in an organization that Americans count on to fly, fight, and win.
  11. Turns out there is a user for a 26 century long PED cycle.
  12. You mean they’re adopting a model that captures the value of previously funded training? Crazy talk. They’d be much better off pulling folks off the street and pushing them through a too good to be true training program. Shareholders and passengers would agree.
  13. Totally agree... but! if there’s going to be any hope of actually using pay to help solve the problem, we can’t frame it as an admission of guilt or failure on the part of the AF. “Acknowledging market forces beyond our control and taking the most fiscally and strategically responsible actions as recommended by numerous panels of independent experts” is far less likely to be met with Capt Closedfortraining’s “that’s not fair” or Sue Neverservedaday’s “you joined the military” or Sen Goodolboy’s “what’s wrong with your culture?” This is as much about avoiding/defusing irrational arguments against a pay increase as it is endorsing the rational action of making one. Plagiarism-ish: “Subordinates and peers respond to complainers-in-chief; all else see whining.”
  14. Get a feel for a few schools and chat with a couple instructors at those schools. You’re purchasing a product, and you want to find a structure that works for you and primary instructor who is genuinely interested in your success. After chatting with a few CFIs, I’d be surprised if you don’t find somebody who offers some instruction off the clock (let them offer; it is not the norm or expectation). Remember that the school’s incentives may or may not align with your goals. Talk to other student pilots about their experience and who the best instructors are. Pick somebody with whom you find it easy to communicate. Ask a technical question about airplanes. Ask them a question about aviation history or regulations. Ask them a question about an aviation career. If you don’t actually feel more educated than when the conversation started, try again with somewhere/somebody else. Finally, there are a lot of douchebag CFIs out there who will unashamedly lie to you or make ridiculous claims of their abilities. Don’t feed them. The really great ones won’t have to tell you about how great they are.
  15. Re: production vs retention. We must think we’ve really found out how to replace experience with something else. I hope we don’t find ourselves looking back and trying to figure out why the job became more dangerous in training. Worse yet, I hope we don’t find ourselves with any reason to wonder about the value of experience, in hindsight, after a full up global conflict.
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