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Swizzle

Supreme User
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Swizzle last won the day on July 30 2012

Swizzle had the most liked content!

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About Swizzle

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    Flight Lead

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    TDY En-route
  • Interests
    Fishing, Investing

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  1. Swizzle

    Commanders are dropping like flies this year

    The F-16 demo team was recently TDY to California training within the last 2 weeks...its in their Twitter feed
  2. Swizzle

    The new airline thread

    Damn, right now it seems the AD guy that...
  3. Swizzle

    UPT Next

    This is the reality and perspective of a seasoned pilot and based in experiential-reality, what you're arguing against is leaders who are making an on-paper argument for new toys, technology refresh, and better performance (MX & Ops). How leaders from desks perceive and justify things is and will always be slightly, or majorly, disconnected from reality (because Execs/Aides dont fly as long or far as a turkey). However Execs/Aides can be good people...they just have a different admin-fight
  4. Swizzle

    Promotion and PRF Information

    I predict in three or four years O5 promotions rates will be extremely high, and many passed-over O4s will get picked up. This because O4 rates were effectively like 99% with most of the passed over O3s, like ~300, promoted (one 8 yrs APZ I personally know). "Second string" or APZ personnel are being called up and largely depleted meaning little to no competition to IPZ/APZ O5 in the future, just like O4 for next ~5 years, and passed over people will be picked up to fill the manning bathtub the exodus created. Put another way, the "bubble" will rise in this manning system. VRRAD and VPLAD aren't enough to normalize the manning pyramid again. They cut too deep and scared away too many. If this macro trend continues, the exodus that is, O5 will be 100% "opportunity" around 2022 *all #'s grossly mentally calculated Cheers, up or out! Or IN because, regretfully (tongue in cheek), we need you!!
  5. Everyone get scared of flying, get a doctors note, SATO books and you ride Amtrak as a family until you can board the Queen Elizabeth 2 with throwback cast member Lidnsay Lohan, then enjoy the slow boat ride. Bring luxury suit, party.
  6. Swizzle

    AF Light Air Support Aircraft

    https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1738529/goldfein-gets-up-close-view-of-new-t-x-trainer/ ...."convinced Goldfein that the plane has the potential to deliver what future pilots and warfighters need."
  7. Two categories got a bump in tiers which equated to max $ per NDAA and more flexible length options. Renewal and "late-taker" options are flexing with tier. Lower tier # = more $ and more flexibility. $0.02...as always this policy is years lagging the trend/chasing the trend and crawling, not even taking baby-steps. It won't be enough, will have to change [i.e. increase in value] again this year (value increases can be options-based like timing front/back/choice or $ qty)
  8. USAF (# 15/17) is better than TSA (DHS # 17/17)...barely... https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/overall/large It's science...must be true, and it's a strat!!!...the USAF understands those. This one is bottom third, aka monitor for Command!! https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/detail/AF00
  9. Swizzle

    School Alternate

    At Maxwell this year there was a gal picked 3 days before class started. She PCA'd across the street.
  10. Swizzle

    School Alternate

    I know a guy. He didn't hear anything his alternate year; got picked up next year as primary. No CFM contact, unless it's to load a RIP offering a school spot. Maybe the CFM is your bro gouges you up', probably not. CFMs exists to support needs of the AF, Senior leaders create that need. He did learn a DEDB Master OOM exists, but will never be disclosed. It ranks DEDB candidates, selects and alternates. It's used when an alternate is activated. Sometimes alternates are activated by rank order, other times skipping order until a prerequisite of slot is achieved. Sometimes political MAJCOM shenanigans fight and achieve skipping the next qualified alternate, perhaps that's after cold-calling an alternate to determine their desire or even maybe for (or to manufacture) an operational deferment. All kinds of politically inspired admin games are played. Just wait, be patient, realize Senior Leadership (DT & WG/CC) will be watching and call upon you if they desire.
  11. Swizzle

    Promotion and PRF Information

    The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation. Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress... Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"
  12. Swizzle

    CLASSIC: De Motivational Poster Contest!

    Being here myself since 2007...I see you just don't understand. May you be enlightened. There is always a point to BaseOps forums, it's why they exist. It's also why I check them often; Fresh perspective. (Thank you all over these years). May BaseOps live past my years... Hopefully soon we should we praise you for... Please understand:
  13. Swizzle

    Russian Dry Dock Sinks

    Newbie Investigating Officer: “Do boats like this sink very often?” Crusty ole' Skipper: “No, usually it’s only once.”
  14. Swizzle

    Promotion and PRF Information

    Link? I don't see it posted on www.afpc.af.mil Or do you mean on RAW?
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