They should promote the majority of actively flying O-4’s(pilots) solely based on a last ditch effort to retain some experience..... But they won’t. 

Edited October 24, 20196 yr by IDALPHA

1 hour ago, FltDoc said:

Given the way boards work, that seems far fetched.  What percentage of board evaluating ops category of LAF will be in ops?  If there are big differences in scoring, that drives split process.  

Don't mean to interrupt your rant, but seems like the issue is going to be more what percentages are applied to each category than identify of board members.

Perhaps. And yeah there’s some hyperbole in there, but I still remember the SOS exercise on promo boards when every non-pilot immediately tossed aside the pilot in favor of non-ops PRFs...simply because all the ops-related stuff on said PRF was foreign to them, thus they put more subjective weight on what they knew - volunteer stuff, CGO of the year award, etc. Granted it’s just captains, but people don’t change that much: case in point, the total lack of ops SA was very evident in a MSG type squadron/cc I had deployed once. As a “fast burning” O5 who probably some day would sit on a board, she had no more SA on the ops side of the AF than the Capt shoes in my SOS class. So, board composition is still a factor, albeit maybe not the #1 to be concerned about. 

2 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

Glut of FGOs in what communities? Our one O-5 (not CC or DO) is a reservist in sanctuary. Most of our O-4s are separating at the end of their commitment. Another squadron has one O-5 (the CC) and only a handful of O-4s.


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Our FTU had a solid dozen O-5s when I got there in 2013.  Now they only have one O-5 who isn't the commander or DO.

Given the way boards work, that seems far fetched.  What percentage of board evaluating ops category of LAF will be in ops?  If there are big differences in scoring, that drives split process.  

Don't mean to interrupt your rant, but seems like the issue is going to be more what percentages are applied to each category than identify of board members.

8/13 board members will be rated officers in the “large board” (Air Ops category) from the slides I saw today.

10 hours ago, K_O said:

I don’t mean anything. The slides say CGOs (pilots) and FGOs (pilots). We have way less CGOs than the AF wants and way more FGOs, at this very moment. I’m just relaying the data.

 

In all seriousness, that’s what the slide probably says, but we all know the data is misleading at best. Reference all the comments above. 

Edited October 24, 20196 yr by WheelsOff

Is there a way to look up the current manning of a squadron? I.e., if I wanna see how many open billets are in a squadron at a certain location? 

34 minutes ago, Bigred said:

Is there a way to look up the current manning of a squadron? I.e., if I wanna see how many open billets are in a squadron at a certain location? 

If there is a way, the numbers will already be “adjusted” in order to show the bottom of the excel spreadsheet green. 

Meanwhile, some CAF flying squadron commanders are now non O-5s ... no doubt qualified, likely with a line number to O-5, but it speaks to the straits we're entering. It used to be rare to see a Maj DO, then common... just saying it's setting a trendline

If there is a way, the numbers will already be “adjusted” in order to show the bottom of the excel spreadsheet green. 

Sure, just make sure you enable your Macros [emoji106]

Meanwhile, some CAF flying squadron commanders are now non O-5s ... no doubt qualified, likely with a line number to O-5, but it speaks to the straits we're entering. It used to be rare to see a Maj DO, then common... just saying it's setting a trendline

Wow.

I’m seeing the opposite in SOF. We brought in a bunch of O-5s and probably will have 5-7 non-command O-5s by the end of this year. And you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a major. There are something like 12-15 “ADOs” to make space for all of them. Granted most of the FGOs are 12S...most of the pilots are Palace Front/Chase as soon as their commitment ends.

8 hours ago, MechGov said:

Wow.

I’m seeing the opposite in SOF. We brought in a bunch of O-5s and probably will have 5-7 non-command O-5s by the end of this year. And you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a major. There are something like 12-15 “ADOs” to make space for all of them. Granted most of the FGOs are 12S...most of the pilots are Palace Front/Chase as soon as their commitment ends.

I envy you guys, hopefully that means a lot of mentorship for the young guys.  The best flying mentors I had were sunset Majors / Lieutenant Colonels with zero f$$$ to give.  In our corner of AMC, there are about 15 Majors in the OG with most at Group / Wing jobs.  

Last year, I met a Reserve Major that was the D.O. of an AD fighter squadron.  Might be more common than I think, but it struck me as odd. 

Wow.

I’m seeing the opposite in SOF. We brought in a bunch of O-5s and probably will have 5-7 non-command O-5s by the end of this year. And you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a major. There are something like 12-15 “ADOs” to make space for all of them. Granted most of the FGOs are 12S...most of the pilots are Palace Front/Chase as soon as their commitment ends.

This is not how the U-28s are looking. No O-5s in the sq except for DO and CC.


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4 hours ago, Skitzo said:

 

This is not how the U-28s are looking. No O-5s in the sq except for DO and CC.


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but rumor has it U-28 manning is the best of all the SOF MWSs and the 11S take-rate in general, while still abysmal, is “better” than the 11Ms... where have all the O-5s gone?

 

but rumor has it U-28 manning is the best of all the SOF MWSs and the 11S take-rate in general, while still abysmal, is “better” than the 11Ms... where have all the O-5s gone?
 

Yes manning is quite healthy on paper. Of course the reports don’t show the full truth. Ie: folks on long term DNID/DNIF or the amount of folks who are duties at in positions they won’t deploy for the unit.

Ample O-5s on staff... and I don’t disagree with having only two O-5s in the squadron.

Most all pilots who are O-4s are bailing for the airlines, those that aren’t are generally “on the path” or HPOS.


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1 hour ago, Skitzo said:

 

Yes manning is quite healthy on paper. Of course the reports don’t show the full truth. Ie: folks on long term DNID/DNIF or the amount of folks who are duties at in positions they won’t deploy for the unit.

Ample O-5s on staff... and I don’t disagree with having only two O-5s in the squadron.

Most all pilots who are O-4s are bailing for the airlines, those that aren’t are generally “on the path” or HPOS.


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I wonder how many of those O-5s making us "over manned" took something like VLPAD.  I know one O-5 who retired for a whole day to make himself eligible for the VLPAD program just so he could PCS.

Yes manning is quite healthy on paper. Of course the reports don’t show the full truth. Ie: folks on long term DNID/DNIF or the amount of folks who are duties at in positions they won’t deploy for the unit.

Ample O-5s on staff... and I don’t disagree with having only two O-5s in the squadron.

Most all pilots who are O-4s are bailing for the airlines, those that aren’t are generally “on the path” or HPOS.


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This.

I wonder how many of those O-5s making us "over manned" took something like VLPAD.  I know one O-5 who retired for a whole day to make himself eligible for the VLPAD program just so he could PCS.

Not sure but I know that at least on staff that VLPAD does not count against the 65% rated staff requirement.

Where did the guy you mention PCS to?


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3 hours ago, Skitzo said:

 

Not sure but I know that at least on staff that VLPAD does not count against the 65% rated staff requirement.

Where did the guy you mention PCS to?


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From Dyess to Eglin

It's about that time again...

1.  Over in the bonus thread, there have been rumors about making the promotion zone a 5-year window and eliminating BPZ instead of "one and done".  Love to see any official guidance on this.  It's not that I doubt y'all...but I've seen nothing from my base or AFGSC about these changes.

2.  What are you guys doing with the two-line PRF?  My boss used the top line as basically his push line, leaving the bottom for the WG/CC push line (#x/xx I/APZ, #x/xxx majors, command, SDE, blah blah).  Is your leadership trying to stick with the "normal" top line of all your best strats, flying hours, combat time, awards, etc?  Or are they using it as a narrative and counting on the record to speak for itself?

3.  What are you guys being told for timelines?  Even between B-1 bases there's confusion.  Ellsworth guys don't have the PSDM (and I haven't seen it either), but at Dyess the DS has the timeline, with the 150 accountability date being 4 Oct and PRFs due to NAF back on the 14th, with an MLR happening in early Jan (8th and 9th, IIRC...but obviously I'm not at work)

4.  More opinion than fact-based...do the illustrious members of forum believe that the 2-line PRF, shift to competitive categories, and this rumored 5-year window will help or hurt the flying community's promotion rates as a whole?

36 minutes ago, pawnman said:

It's about that time again...

1.  Over in the bonus thread, there have been rumors about making the promotion zone a 5-year window and eliminating BPZ instead of "one and done".  Love to see any official guidance on this.  It's not that I doubt y'all...but I've seen nothing from my base or AFGSC about these changes.

2.  What are you guys doing with the two-line PRF?  My boss used the top line as basically his push line, leaving the bottom for the WG/CC push line (#x/xx I/APZ, #x/xxx majors, command, SDE, blah blah).  Is your leadership trying to stick with the "normal" top line of all your best strats, flying hours, combat time, awards, etc?  Or are they using it as a narrative and counting on the record to speak for itself?

3.  What are you guys being told for timelines?  Even between B-1 bases there's confusion.  Ellsworth guys don't have the PSDM (and I haven't seen it either), but at Dyess the DS has the timeline, with the 150 accountability date being 4 Oct and PRFs due to NAF back on the 14th, with an MLR happening in early Jan (8th and 9th, IIRC...but obviously I'm not at work)

4.  More opinion than fact-based...do the illustrious members of forum believe that the 2-line PRF, shift to competitive categories, and this rumored 5-year window will help or hurt the flying community's promotion rates as a whole?

Help, and here is why:  The guidance on two line PRFs are that you can’t put bullets or data from what is already in your OPRs or TRs, meaning the board actually has to read your OPRs.  This helps those who hack the mission instead of planning the LGBTQ bake sale. This is of course assuming your OPRs are sound.  Further, competitive categories help since you’re solely being compared against your peers, apples to apples instead of comparing you to some FSS major who has already commanded.  From my understanding big Air Force decides cut lines for each category based on mission needs - can’t say whether promo rates go up for aviators or not but they definitely have a potential to.

As to the 5 year window? Won’t change much for your BPZ/HPOs, they’ll still get promoted early but maybe it will remove the stigma from APZ? And hopefully enable late bloomers.

 

3 hours ago, pawnman said:

It's about that time again...

1.  Over in the bonus thread, there have been rumors about making the promotion zone a 5-year window and eliminating BPZ instead of "one and done".  Love to see any official guidance on this.  It's not that I doubt y'all...but I've seen nothing from my base or AFGSC about these changes.

 

Gen Ray was in Minot a couple of weeks back and talked about this. Seems like the four stars are all on board with it. 

6 hours ago, pawnman said:

It's about that time again...

1.  Over in the bonus thread, there have been rumors about making the promotion zone a 5-year window and eliminating BPZ instead of "one and done".  Love to see any official guidance on this.  It's not that I doubt y'all...but I've seen nothing from my base or AFGSC about these changes.

2.  What are you guys doing with the two-line PRF?  My boss used the top line as basically his push line, leaving the bottom for the WG/CC push line (#x/xx I/APZ, #x/xxx majors, command, SDE, blah blah).  Is your leadership trying to stick with the "normal" top line of all your best strats, flying hours, combat time, awards, etc?  Or are they using it as a narrative and counting on the record to speak for itself?

3.  What are you guys being told for timelines?  Even between B-1 bases there's confusion.  Ellsworth guys don't have the PSDM (and I haven't seen it either), but at Dyess the DS has the timeline, with the 150 accountability date being 4 Oct and PRFs due to NAF back on the 14th, with an MLR happening in early Jan (8th and 9th, IIRC...but obviously I'm not at work)

4.  More opinion than fact-based...do the illustrious members of forum believe that the 2-line PRF, shift to competitive categories, and this rumored 5-year window will help or hurt the flying community's promotion rates as a whole?

The timeline is published by AFPC. No PSDM though so it’s not super helpful except to make everyone write their PRF. Luckily it’s only 2 lines so if some end up not on this board it’s not as much wasted time as it used to be.

As far as writing the 2 line PRF, no one really knows what right looks like yet, but you can’t use any info already in a PRF so it sounds like yours may get rewritten. What I’ve seen (which may or may not be normal) is top line a statement about why your experience makes you good to this point, and bottom line is your push line of strat or no strat and why you’ll be good in the future. Honestly though I’m sure everywhere is doing it slightly different based on their own interpretation.

On 10/23/2019 at 5:44 PM, daynightindicator said:

 

8/13 board members will be rated officers in the “large board” (Air Ops category) from the slides I saw today.

 

Might as well move the board location to Nellis.  

9 hours ago, dream big said:

As to the 5 year window? Won’t change much for your BPZ/HPOs, they’ll still get promoted early but maybe it will remove the stigma from APZ? And hopefully enable late bloomers.

Doing away with BPZ also does away with the limitations of only being able to promote a certain percentage of your shiny pennies "BPZ". I'd like to think it will iron out, but without the speed limit I have a feeling you will just see more HPOs promoted earlier, and using the extended promotion window to fix manning shortages once things settle down. I hope I'm wrong and there is less pressure to select our generals based off SOS performance.