The Next President is...

[filthy_liar]

5 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Agree. There are good people in both parties though, particularly at the grassroots level. We’re never all going to agree but you can participate at the local levels & seek out the good ones in whatever party you feel suits you better. I’ll do the same in my community. We should all also make an effort to consume less media and have more conversations. I really can’t stand Donald Trump. But I really like my Republican friends and have some great conversations with them. Extremist media is wrong to demonize swaths of this country because they vote a certain way. We need to agree as a nation to stop painting half the country with the same broad brush we use to identify & ridicule the most extreme elements of each party. We also need to recognize that people may vote for a candidate we find repugnant simply for lack of other options. I didn’t like Hillary but I wasn’t about to vote for trump. I imagine the feeling was mutual for many on the other side. 

Concur.  But does grassroots matter?  It certainly matters in the neighborhood, but does it matter at the national ballot?  I'm a conservative.  I live out in the sticks, don't consume a lot of media except when I show up to work every morning on an Army/NASA installation.  So I'm exposed to it.  There are no grassroots movements that matter at the ballot, hence, the two party system.  I don't see an end to it.

[Prozac]

1 hour ago, filthy_liar said:

Concur.  But does grassroots matter?  It certainly matters in the neighborhood, but does it matter at the national ballot?  I'm a conservative.  I live out in the sticks, don't consume a lot of media except when I show up to work every morning on an Army/NASA installation.  So I'm exposed to it.  There are no grassroots movements that matter at the ballot, hence, the two party system.  I don't see an end to it.

They matter at the local level which honestly probably affects most of us as much or more than national level politics. And it plants the seeds for the future. School board members might be empowered to run for state office & then national races later on. 

[filthy_liar]

9 minutes ago, Prozac said:

They matter at the local level which honestly probably affects most of us as much or more than national level politics. And it plants the seeds for the future. School board members might be empowered to run for state office & then national races later on.

Agree, but have you seen the train wreck at the school system?  Everyone says local this and local that, but our voice isn't being heard in the school system.  And before you call me a redneck hillbilly Prozac, not that you would, at the local level, no voices are being heard.  They call a vote, the ayes say aye and the nay say nay and afterwards the ayes and nays get together and say wtf?  That's not what we voted on.  And some rich strolls on stage and thanks everyone for coming out. That's the school system

[brabus]

Local level is where you get the most bang for your buck. The public school system is a disaster - but it’s a good example of something local that regular people need to step up and run for. We have to rid our local boards, councils, etc. of all the shitty people. If we don’t, we get exactly what we deserve. 

[uhhello]

34 minutes ago, brabus said:

Local level is where you get the most bang for your buck. The public school system is a disaster - but it’s a good example of something local that regular people need to step up and run for. We have to rid our local boards, councils, etc. of all the shitty people. If we don’t, we get exactly what we deserve. 

Finding state DOE is where the controls are though.  Most stuff is mandated by DOE at State.  You can decide to not do X but you'll lose X funding for not doing it.  It sucks.  

[GrndPndr]

Is Kamala loyal enough to her party to quit if asked by them?  Then Uncle Joe nominates someone to replace her - then he quits.

Then we really have someone running things, who no one voted for.

 

[El Duderino]

1 hour ago, GrndPndr said:

Is Kamala loyal enough to her party to quit if asked by them?  Then Uncle Joe nominates someone to replace her - then he quits.

Then we really have someone running things, who no one voted for.

 

It’s happened before, and not that long ago. Reference Gerald Ford. 

[HeloDude]

My final prediction:

GOP: 52 Senate seats, 241 seats in the House (that might be a little high).  For competitive Gov races, GOP wins KS, WI, NV, and AZ.  They “might” win OR, but I’d say no.  I think NY will be close, but GOP won’t win.

Assuming my predictions are correct, when will Biden/left say that democracy is over?  Since that’s what they told us if the Dems lose.

[Sua Sponte]

7 hours ago, HeloDude said:

My final prediction:

GOP: 52 Senate seats, 241 seats in the House (that might be a little high).  For competitive Gov races, GOP wins KS, WI, NV, and AZ.  They “might” win OR, but I’d say no.  I think NY will be close, but GOP won’t win.

Assuming my predictions are correct, when will Biden/left say that democracy is over?  Since that’s what they told us if the Dems lose.

This didn't age well.

[BashiChuni]

Very disappointing night for republicans. 
 

the message is clear: trump is done. It’s desantis in 2024. 

[dream big]

21 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

Very disappointing night for republicans. 
 

the message is clear: trump is done. It’s desantis in 2024. 

Wouldn’t say disappointing but not a red wave like many were predicting. Republicans will take the house, new Speaker will be a Republican.  Senate stays split. 
 

Furthermore, Florida, Ohio and Texas remain solidly red, three states Democrats have targeted for years. No one is winning the presidency without one of those states. Also, Beto and Stacey lose again! 
 

Now here’s to hoping Trump doesn’t come in with a wrecking ball and split the Republican Party which would surely cede the presidency to the left. 

[HeloDude]

41 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

This didn't age well.

Haha nope!  In 2016, 2018, and 2020, Larry Sabato (who I still kind of follow) got all his statewide races for his GOP favorites right, but when he was wrong, it was when he picked a Dem over a GOP.  He had 51 for the GOP and 237 for the House.  I figured based on what he gets right vs wrong, the GOP would fair slightly better than his prediction.  But it turns out this time, he overestimated the GOP.

[FourFans]

37 minutes ago, dream big said:

Now here’s to hoping Trump doesn’t come in with a wrecking ball and split the Republican Party which would surely cede the presidency to the left. 

Quoted for posterity.  

[HeloDude]

53 minutes ago, dream big said:

Furthermore, Florida, Ohio and Texas remain solidly red, three states Democrats have targeted for years. No one is winning the presidency without one of those states.

Biden won while losing all 3 of those states.

[FourFans]

[BashiChuni]

7 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

Desantis/Tulsi would crush them.

 

hell desantis vs. anyone would be a easy GOP win. but knowing the GOP they'll do political dumb shit to shoot themselves in the foot again

[ClearedHot]

10 hours ago, dream big said:

Wouldn’t say disappointing but not a red wave like many were predicting. Republicans will take the house, new Speaker will be a Republican.  Senate stays split. 
 

Furthermore, Florida, Ohio and Texas remain solidly red, three states Democrats have targeted for years. No one is winning the presidency without one of those states. Also, Beto and Stacey lose again! 
 

Now here’s to hoping Trump doesn’t come in with a wrecking ball and split the Republican Party which would surely cede the presidency to the left. 

It looks like the DNC strategy to promote "Trump MAGA" candidates in the primaries was successful which does indeed say Trump's influence is in decline.  Let's see what his "big" announcement is on the 14th.  If he gets out of the way it would be a very good thing for the GOP, sadly I don't think his ego will allow for the greater good.

Personally I would go Desantis/Haley in 2024.  I think the dems will eventually dump Biden and push Gavin Newsome along with another extremist.

[Prozac]

As usual, both parties will likely come away with the wrong messages. Ds will say they’re still large & in charge, and Rs will double down on the Trumpiness. In reality, frustration with the economy & some of the more extreme policy points on the Democratic side is real. This should’ve been Republicans’ midterms to lose. But people are equally frustrated with Republican positions. Both parties have been captured by their “bases” whoever those people are. They’re definitely not the average Joe who just wants to live his life while his 401k does ok, the fire trucks show up when there’s a fire, the potholes on his way to work get fixed, & the government stays out of his religious beliefs and decisions. Neither party is offering that at the moment. 

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

It looks like the DNC strategy to promote "Trump MAGA" candidates in the primaries was successful which does indeed say Trump's influence is in decline.  Let's see what his "big" announcement is on the 14th.  If he gets out of the way it would be a very good thing for the GOP, sadly I don't think his ego will allow for the greater good.

Personally I would go Desantis/Haley in 2024.  I think the dems will eventually dumb Biden and push Gavin Newsome along with another extremist.

Desantis/Haley will be a tough one for the current democrat party to beat.  

[dream big]

10 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Biden won while losing all 3 of those states.

I stand corrected in my absolute, however Ohio and Florida, states that used to be purple are solidly red. The Dems have spent millions trying to “flip Texas blue,” and haven’t come close. That’s not great news for them.

[ClearedHot]

6 minutes ago, dream big said:

I stand corrected in my absolute, however Ohio and Florida, states that used to be purple are solidly red. The Dems have spent millions trying to “flip Texas blue,” and haven’t come close. That’s not great news for them.

A few interesting stats:

1.  The DNC has spent over $200M on Beto on three separate elections, $100M on last night's election alone, he has lost every attempt.

2.  The DNC has spent over $100M on Stacy Adams on two elections, both of which she lost.  During her most recent campaign she was raising (and spending), funds at a rate of 3:1 on Kemp, and she still lost. 

Do you think either one of these extremists will get the message?

[Danger41]

To me (non-party affiliated voter), the biggest takeaway is that candidate quality matters. Pennsylvania senate race between Oz and Fetterman should've been the easiest win ever based on Fetterman and his stroke + debate performance. Or juxtaposing the Georgia senate race with the state governor race. How the hell does Herschel Walker end up as the nominee when he was very clearly not qualified for the job. At the same time, Brian Kemp (who Trump hates) beats Democratic super candidate (ref CH post above) by a significant margin.

It's that the makes me think Desantis will absolutely roll in 2024 unless Trump pulls a Ross Perot and siphons off significant votes from the Republican candidate. Please don't interpret that I'm equating Ross Perot and Donald Trump on a personal level. Purely a corollary to splitting the GOP vote. 

[NKAWTG]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

2.  The DNC has spent over $100M on Stacy Adams on two elections, both of which she lost.  During her most recent campaign she was raising (and spending), funds at a rate of 3:1 on Kemp, and she still lost. 

 

Stacey Abrams was never a serious candidate.  More akin to the Maxine Waters type who takes the campaign money and funnels it to friends and family.  She herself has gotten very wealthy for accomplishing little in life. 

Pennsylvania is what astounds me.  They elected a brain damaged candidate to the US Senate, and in their statehouse, elected a candidate who died a month ago.  Is it shadiness or stupidity?  I'm not sure I'm comfortable with either answer.         

[herkbum]

Stacey Abrams was never a serious candidate.  More akin to the Maxine Waters type who takes the campaign money and funnels it to friends and family.  She herself has gotten very wealthy for accomplishing little in life. 
Pennsylvania is what astounds me.  They elected a brain damaged candidate to the US Senate, and in their statehouse, elected a candidate who died a month ago.  Is it shadiness or stupidity?  I'm not sure I'm comfortable with either answer.         

According to my wife, it’s shadiness. She used to be involved with PA politics and she said it’s shady.


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[Guest nsplayr]

Cheers to all my Republican/conservative friends 🍺 

The House is still too close to call but either side will have an extremely slim majority. The Senate will either be +1 to the Dems or decided in another December GA runoff.

Glad to see some of my favorite elected leaders & ballot issues have good nights (Polis in CO, Spanberger in VA, weed legalization in MO and MD, Medicaid expansion in SD.) I'm glad voting seemed to have gone smoothly and at least so far I don't see anyone throwing a fit about the results.

Overall it was a very strong performance at a midterm for a party with trifecta control of DC, the norm would have been to lose ~30 House seats and a handful of Senate seats. It may end up being -4 in the House while maintaining control and +1 in the Senate, which is batting well, well above that historical average.

Hopefully the GOP will put some more thought into blindly following Trump endorsements re: candidate quality. I want to see better candidates from both parties!

On the plus side for the GOP, y'all may yet still get one or both chambers when all the results are finalized, the 2024 Senate map is brutal for Dems, and Biden's age will be a factor even more so than 2020 for his potential reelection.

Better luck next time!