While the news has been covering Venezuela Iran is in the middle of a revolution regime change.

Reports indicate Khamenei plans exit to Moscow.

Wake me up when they actually pull it off. This has happened how many times now? If Khomeini hasn't had plans ready for decades I'd be very surprised.

would be fantastic if true!

I saw a really nice throw of a Molotov Cocktail. Maybe bring him over on a football or baseball scholarship.

I think I'll wait to see who follows before getting interested. Egypt, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan... It's not an easy region to reform.

The Iranian threat is what made the Abraham accords possible. I wonder if the Middle East can unify without a central bad guy to align against.

4 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I think I'll wait to see who follows before getting interested. Egypt, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan... It's not an easy region to reform.

The Iranian threat is what made the Abraham accords possible. I wonder if the Middle East can unify without a central bad guy to align against.

Appears to be all internal and organic at this point (I am not naive to think CIA and Mossad haven't been helping), but Israeli leadership just approved an attack on the IRGC...would prefer they stay out of it.

11 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I think I'll wait to see who follows before getting interested. Egypt, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan... It's not an easy region to reform.

The Iranian threat is what made the Abraham accords possible. I wonder if the Middle East can unify without a central bad guy to align against.

Iran is not Afghanistan, when Khomeini came to power, he had overwhelming support of Iranian college educated young women who believed him. Sound familiar? Back in the 70s I had a discussion with my cousin who was a young female at the time who supported Khomeini who just dismissed me. Sound familiar again. Before this under the Shah it was progressive secular society. The Shah's secret police were heavy handed with the Islamists who wanted a theocracy and our own CIA didn't make many friends due to us wanting to keep our listening stations along the shared border with USSR. Maybe this time we can get it right.

I’d love to see Iran get back to being a more free society where human rights are recognized and respected.

I was a kid in early 1971 when my family (father worked for a relief NGO) was evacuated from East Pakistan (Bangladesh); we stayed in Tehran with a USAF SMsgt’s family who hosted us for 2 weeks waiting for my older brothers to get out of West Pakistan (they were in boarding school). My parents have pictures from our time there and it was modern, clean and open. I remember the stark contrast of 3rd world where we lived in Dhaka to a modern and clean Tehran.

It’s sad that the people have been so controlled for so long. I wish them the best, but it’s going to be a rough ride for them regardless if they topple the mullahs or not. 45 years plus of essentially no say in their leadership or what form of governance they have.

Edited January 7Jan 7 by bfargin

1 hour ago, Prosuper said:

Iran is not Afghanistan, when Khomeini came to power, he had overwhelming support of Iranian college educated young women who believed him. Sound familiar? Back in the 70s I had a discussion with my cousin who was a young female at the time who supported Khomeini who just dismissed me. Sound familiar again. Before this under the Shah it was progressive secular society. The Shah's secret police were heavy handed with the Islamists who wanted a theocracy and our own CIA didn't make many friends due to us wanting to keep our listening stations along the shared border with USSR. Maybe this time we can get it right.

Yes, well, just like in the '70s and '80s, the problem is going to be Islamic fundamentalists.

I don't think Egypt is that bad of a comparison. Mubarak was definitely better than Khomeini, but regardless it was the Muslim brotherhood that the population supported before Al Sisi came in and shut it down.

A much more extreme version of this problem exists in Palestine. The Palestinians in Gaza are no fan of Hamas, but that doesn't mean we are going to like who they end up supporting.

Fingers crossed.

Senior IRGC and Iran leaders families have fled Iran...to France of all places.

This might really happen.

52 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Senior IRGC and Iran leaders families have fled Iran...to France of all places.

This might really happen.

Very interesting. Short drive to the Hague as well. Given the trouble they've caused over the years all over the world it wouldn't hurt my feelings if they ended up in Federal Court over here. I'm sure we'd have to waive the death penalty but I'm ok with that.

Step on the gas. I'm hoping we have some inside people ready to throw a molitov at the right target at the right time, fire up the mob with the right chant, but don't go as far as streaking in the quad. That's when you lose em and they go back home.

It’s certainly heating up. Internet shut down now.

Trump tells Iranian protesters 'help is on its way' | AP News

I can't see any way Trump can back down now.

I wonder how fast we ramp up cruise missile etc. production because sustainability of a large-scale operation is looking for a lot more than a theoretical/academic discussion at this point.

Remember when Ukraine was THE headline?

On 1/8/2026 at 1:34 PM, uhhello said:

It’s certainly heating up. Internet shut down now.

Elon turned Starlink on for free, thought to be difficult to jam until the IRGC rolled out the big jammers yesterday cutting 80% of the flow.

14 hours ago, fire4effect said:

Trump tells Iranian protesters 'help is on its way' | AP News

I can't see any way Trump can back down now.

I wonder how fast we ramp up cruise missile etc. production because sustainability of a large-scale operation is looking for a lot more than a theoretical/academic discussion at this point.

Remember when Ukraine was THE headline?

If you look at the intel, this would be a smaller operation than you might think. The IRGC has lost grip and we would not need large scale strikes so we are not looking at big attacks on infrastructure, more likely targeted hit on IRGC and their control mechanisms. I think there could also be a limited ground presence (which is scary), but an effort to secure the nuke sites/material.

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Elon turned Starlink on for free, thought to be difficult to jam until the IRGC rolled out the big jammers yesterday cutting 80% of the flow.

If you look at the intel, this would be a smaller operation than you might think. The IRGC has lost grip and we would not need large scale strikes so we are not looking at big attacks on infrastructure, more likely targeted hit on IRGC and their control mechanisms. I think there could also be a limited ground presence (which is scary), but an effort to secure the nuke sites/material.

I hope so. My biggest concern is maintaining a creditable/sustainable deterrent to the plethora of bad guys all around the world and covering an area not currently overly hot but that we all know can turn on a dime. BOG? Yep scary. No matter who's in charge over there we'll have some who still hate us.

10 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

I hope so. My biggest concern is maintaining a creditable/sustainable deterrent to the plethora of bad guys all around the world and covering an area not currently overly hot but that we all know can turn on a dime. BOG? Yep scary. No matter who's in charge over there we'll have some who still hate us.

The Navy is stressed right now...to say the least.

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

The Navy is stressed right now...to say the least.

Unfortunately very true. Poor bastards.