Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[ClearedHot]

KA-52 Shot down with ATGM.  The Russians have a lost a LOT of equipment in five weeks.

 

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

You are missing the point. But lets assume for a minute you didn't join the military assuming it was going to be rainbow farts from gilded unicorn assholes. In EVERY single instance of outrage you expressed above, I can pinpoint a near EXACT equivalent that happened in the US GWOT. Mishandling prisoners of war. Abu Ghraib, 2003. Striking hospitals marked as shelters? Doctors Without Borders, Kunduz, 2015. Raining artillery down on residential neighborhoods? al-Aghawat al Jadidah, Mosul, 2017. Raping and pillaging Ukranian villages? Mahmudiyah Iraq, 2006. I could name half a dozen for each of these actually but those were the best specific examples that most mirror the circumstances you point to above and as I said in my original post, its going to be really hard to pin some of these because Russia doesn't have access to advanced aerial sensors or PGMs that we do (and they are not required to). Futhermore, Zelansky muddied those waters further by giving every civilian in Ukraine a rifle and telling them to go out and kill Russians. I don't fault him for that, this is a war of survival for them, but recognize that makes it really hard to throw charges at Russia, charges, not accusations, and make them stick. 

More important to the overall point though, you lack the nuance of how LOAC is applied, where it hails from and the international audience it caters to. You brought up the Hague. Did you know that the United States of America (the country you said you still believed in) is actively sanctioning the ICC and has placed entry bans on ICC investigators tasked to investigate US war crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq. Ever ask yourself why that is? Ever ask yourself how the news stories about the incidents I outlined above were portrayed in the rest of the world? Ever open up a Pakistani newspaper article on drone strikes? 

This is just silly. You guys just want to chock everything up to Putin apologetics and in reality i'm just telling you how shit is going to play out as I see it which is that Putin has sufficient fog and noise in Ukraine to effectively conceal a case against the state for war crimes based on Zelansky's decision to arm a civilian populace which massively distorted any cases against distinction and the lack of advanced targeting technologies, mainly sensors and PGMs, which allows Russia greater leniency and presuming proportionality. Just War Theory makes it pretty clear that combatants are innocent of Jus-ad-Bellum and therefore no matter how idiotic or stupid Putin's reason for entering Ukraine is, nothing justifies the extrajudicial killings or Russian POWs that are presumed innocent unless tried and found guilty of war crimes. 

If someone understands something better than you don't just dismiss it as propaganda, ask them to explain it. I can write pages on here about LOAC, Just War Theory and the Geneva conventions. If you were a shooter at some point, and you did some shit that bothered you, you probably talked to a Chaplain and a JAG a few times about this stuff, and they probably gave you some things to read, and you probably read a shit ton about it because you wanted to sleep at night. But hey man, what do I know. 

One last thing, Russia is not winning the information space right now. Ukraine is. And if you don't believe Ukraine is targeting American and Western European citizens in that information campaign, you are completely naive. And they are not doing it because they want to "be our friends" or "help us lead the free world." They are doing it because they are acting in their own country's interests, as ALL states do. There are "reasons" we are hearing very little about how the snake isle defenders suddenly ended up in Russian custody, what is happening in the inner ranks of the foreign legion, and how Russian prisoners are being treated in Ukraine. If we go balls to the wall break all hell lose against Russia so be it. But lets make sure we are doing it because its in our interests and not because its in Ukraine's interests. 

Would you claim that any of those American actions were justified? Or are they crimes? Seems I remember at least a few ending in jail time for US service members.

[waveshaper]

45 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

KA-52 Shot down with ATGM.  The Russians have a lost a LOT of equipment in five weeks.

 

A little info on this Ukrainian designed/manufactured ATGM (it can penetrate 32 inches of armor) and it can also do this "The Stugna-P is able of destroying low-altitude, slow-moving aerial targets":

"Stugna-p anti-tank missile": 

Stugna Stugna-P anti-tank guided missile technical data fact sheet | Ukraine Ukrainian army vehicle missile system UK | Ukrainian Ukraine army military equipment UK (armyrecognition.com)

[brickhistory]

That oughtta take care of any more fly-bys...

[FLEA]

36 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Would you claim that any of those American actions were justified? Or are they crimes? Seems I remember at least a few ending in jail time for US service members.

Which is what I said in my original post. There is a big difference though between being tried internally and being tried internationally, and none of our folks have been tried internationally. The US position on this has been that we maintain good order and discipline within our ranks so we dont have a requirement for an international body to hold us accountable. Russia will make the same appeal. All of this is kind of pointless to discuss anyway because I dont think the ICC actually has jurisdiction in the Ukraine conflict because neither party are full signatories. 

Best-22 is one of those people that believes everyone who disagrees with him must be the victim of some disinformation campaign and not realize that maybe they just have more facts than they do. Fine. Whatever. But its just the reality of the circumstances. All I'm trying to explain to him is that in conflict, there is a game that states play. And Russia knows the game and they know how to play it and they are playing it quite well because they are doing a pretty decent job of insulating themselves from any widespread prosecution against the state. 

Its like Covert Operations and the concept of plausible deniability. It doesnt matter if the whole world thinks its bullshit. If its plausible, its good enough to evade most international consequences. All states do is look for something that is just strong enough that other states with significant ties to them can internally justify to their populace why they are not making retribution. 

[Best-22]

26 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Best-22 is one of those people that believes everyone who disagrees with him must be the victim of some disinformation campaign and not realize that maybe they just have more facts than they do. Fine. Whatever.

No I'm just saying you're following the misinformation playbook exactly..With nearly every post you make on this forum regarding Russia (including this one).

 

Specifically:

you continue to double down on flimsy logic with this ridiculous theme pretending that since "America is bad too" then we can't fault Russia. Your insistence at this stage of the war that Putin is some brilliant geopolitical Chessmaster is laughable. 

Very rarely do I see accurate predictions regarding this war from the "both sides are the same" camp. 

[Lawman]

Very rarely do I see accurate predictions regarding this war from the "both sides are the same" camp. 

Ok sidebar on this point, because the building narrative by the current party in power and a lot of people safely on the sidelines is plainly obvious with this.

Absolutely nobody was aware of how disastrously led, planned,or resourced the actual Russian ground campaign was going to pan out. Austin Green was on record days before actual hostilities prediction to Congress the inevitable fall of Ukraine’s military to the “overwhelming numbers” of Russian BTGs in the area.

Anybody trying to change history now and say we were all plainly aware the Russian Army was a paper Tiger and would fall on its face are flat out lying to try and look good in the current trend. Furthermore; this war is far from over. And the danger with feeding that narrative is the thing that has actually given Ukraine the tools and maneuver space to fight this conflict ultimately risks drying up if we stop treating the Russian Army as a legitimate threat and referring to them like some 3rd world power.

While I think we all would be a little more comfortable about our tactical chances with the O-plan should the balloon have gone up, none of us should suddenly act like NATO going into Kaliningrad would have been a cake walk, nor should we be saying things that minimize the reality that Ukraine is paying for their freedom with blood and burned/broken cities right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Best-22]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

 

 

Ok sidebar on this point, because the building narrative by the current party in power and a lot of people safely on the sidelines is plainly obvious with this.

Absolutely nobody was aware of how disastrously led, planned,or resourced the actual Russian ground campaign was going to pan out. Austin Green was on record days before actual hostilities prediction to Congress the inevitable fall of Ukraine’s military to the “overwhelming numbers” of Russian BTGs in the area.

Anybody trying to change history now and say we were all plainly aware the Russian Army was a paper Tiger and would fall on its face are flat out lying to try and look good in the current trend. Furthermore; this war is far from over. And the danger with feeding that narrative is the thing that has actually given Ukraine the tools and maneuver space to fight this conflict ultimately risks drying up if we stop treating the Russian Army as a legitimate threat and referring to them like some 3rd world power.

While I think we all would be a little more comfortable about our tactical chances with the O-plan should the balloon have gone up, none of us should suddenly act like NATO going into Kaliningrad would have been a cake walk, nor should we be saying things that minimize the reality that Ukraine is paying for their freedom with blood and burned/broken cities right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

I agree with you on all points. 

That portion of my comment was aimed more at the people who feel they need to remind everyone that Ukraine is actually corrupt and not a perfect democracy and therefore we might as well root for Russia. those same people would have told you a few weeks ago the stalled convoy NW of Kyiv was all part of the plan to build up forces and mass artillery. Now they say taking Kyiv was actually just a feint this whole time and we all got played. Or that Russias air force is notably absent because they are trying so hard to use restraint and avoid civilian casualties (not because they have failed to destroy Ukraines air defense) 

 

The point was that group isn't able to perceive this conflict accurately or honestly, and therefore can't/won't make realistic predictions. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Best-22

[FLEA]

4 hours ago, Best-22 said:

No I'm just saying you're following the misinformation playbook exactly..With nearly every post you make on this forum regarding Russia (including this one).

 

Specifically:

you continue to double down on flimsy logic with this ridiculous theme pretending that since "America is bad too" then we can't fault Russia. Your insistence at this stage of the war that Putin is some brilliant geopolitical Chessmaster is laughable. 

Very rarely do I see accurate predictions regarding this war from the "both sides are the same" camp. 

Ok man. You do you. It's clear you got some weird narrative in your head that can't be shaken. Here's what Axios says. 

https://www.axios.com/putin-war-crimes-charges-punishment-0a6275ca-daa5-4fa2-9296-2b9e1348661e.html

I guess statements from a former ICC prosecutor are also Russian propaganda? You're laughable man. 

[Sim]

Quote

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has delivered 5,000 Starlink Terminals to the Government of Ukraine through a public-private partnership with the American aerospace manufacturer, SpaceX.

 

https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/apr-5-2022-usaid-safeguards-internet-access-ukraine-through-public-private

[Sim]

Good take on current situation. 

[Best-22]

7 hours ago, FLEA said:

Ok man. You do you. It's clear you got some weird narrative in your head that can't be shaken. Here's what Axios says. 

https://www.axios.com/putin-war-crimes-charges-punishment-0a6275ca-daa5-4fa2-9296-2b9e1348661e.html

I guess statements from a former ICC prosecutor are also Russian propaganda? You're laughable man. 

You're refuting a point I didn't even make. 

My issue is with the broader themes you're trying to push. I even had a section in that comment that laid out specifically what I was talking about. Let's not get bogged down going in circles over the details. 

[brickhistory]

6 hours ago, Best-22 said:

Let's not get bogged down going in circles over the details. 

[DirkDiggler]

Ballsy BTR crew smacking T-72s with their 30mm.

[brickhistory]

Indeed.

 

Even grandmothers are getting into the act:

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/displaced-88-year-old-ukrainian-woman-laughs-as-she-recounts-telling-russian-soldier-fck-your-mother/

 

Also in the good news department despite the spin:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3261917-kremlin-spokesman-admits-we-have-significant-losses-of-troops-calls-it-a-huge-tragedy/

[fire4effect]

17 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Indeed.

 

 

 

Also in the good news department despite the spin:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3261917-kremlin-spokesman-admits-we-have-significant-losses-of-troops-calls-it-a-huge-tragedy/

Overall I agree stacking up Russians should convince them to back off. But as is often the case Putin doesn't appear to feel the pain of their sacrifice. I thought I saw a quote (no way to ascertain veracity) from a Russian Mom who lost a son in Ukraine and blamed the US. for supplying the weapons used. She supposedly said Russia should send us a nuke to get us to back off in Ukraine. If thats the sentiment on their side this could really get ugly. At a minimum I hope they have good control of the people actually minding the button. 

[DirkDiggler]

57 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Overall I agree stacking up Russians should convince them to back off. But as is often the case Putin doesn't appear to feel the pain of their sacrifice. I thought I saw a quote (no way to ascertain veracity) from a Russian Mom who lost a son in Ukraine and blamed the US. for supplying the weapons used. She supposedly said Russia should send us a nuke to get us to back off in Ukraine. If thats the sentiment on their side this could really get ugly. At a minimum I hope they have good control of the people actually minding the button. 

I'm pretty sure North Vietnam wasn't producing it's own SA-2s/3s/23mm/37mm/57mm/85mm.  We didn't "send the Russians a nuke".  Karma is a bitch.  Russian soldiers wouldn't be dying if Putin would have stayed on his side of the border; she should take her case up with him.

[DirkDiggler]

Good video of Russians burning 

[fire4effect]

46 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

I'm pretty sure North Vietnam wasn't producing it's own SA-2s/3s/23mm/37mm/57mm/85mm.  We didn't "send the Russians a nuke".  Karma is a bitch.  Russian soldiers wouldn't be dying if Putin would have stayed on his side of the border; she should take her case up with him.

Completely agree. She should but I doubt she will. Unfortunately, her perception is based on what she's seen in her media and the trauma of losing a close family member. I can only imagine what it would be like to lose any of my children and the rage I would feel. To paraphrase as I do occasionally from a movie Quantum of Solace "I think you are so blinded by inconsolable rage you don't care who you hurt" kind of sums it up. Who is easier for the family to blame us or them? Right or wrong doesn't come into it. This is where I see it getting really dangerous.

[Hunter Rose]

19 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

I'm pretty sure North Vietnam wasn't producing it's own SA-2s/3s/23mm/37mm/57mm/85mm.  We didn't "send the Russians a nuke".  Karma is a bitch.  Russian soldiers wouldn't be dying if Putin would have stayed on his side of the border; she should take her case up with him.

Also let's not forget the Mig-15s piloted by actual Russian pilots in Korea. 

Edited April 9, 2022 by Hunter Rose

[BFM this]

https://www.axios.com/boris-johnson-ukraine-zelensky-2283122f-3d5a-487a-91df-95eb62d81f5b.html

I'm going to guess that some very top-shelf and seldom used UK capes were dusted off in order to arrange this meeting.

Ballzy, Boris, ballzy indeed.

[Danger41]

Part of me thinks that’s awesome but another part of me thinks JFC that’s stupid. Same as when the Polish, Slovenian, and Czech PM’s visited. Something happens and they get fragged and bam, Article 5. 

[FLEA]

7 hours ago, Danger41 said:

Part of me thinks that’s awesome but another part of me thinks JFC that’s stupid. Same as when the Polish, Slovenian, and Czech PM’s visited. Something happens and they get fragged and bam, Article 5. 

It's my guess there were some background phone calls that made it very clear heads of state would be there and where they would be. (To Russia) Sounds bizarre but I saw some similar coordination when Trump visited the DPRK. Generally sovereign states have a common interests in protecting heads of state. Especially authoritarian ones like Russia and DPRK. Those dudes already sleep with one eye open. No reason to give people the belief that political assassination is suddenly ok. (For heads of state)

But if you really want my opinion of how weak article 5 is in its current state, even if BJ was mortared in Kyiv, I don't think you would get the consensus for an article 5. There would be states argueing exactly what you said. "Well.... He provoked it, common sense says don't go to a warzone." 

Edited April 10, 2022 by FLEA

[FLEA]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clinton-nato-expansion-ukraine/629499/

 

Interesting article by Bill Clinton about his time working with Putin. While I don't 100% agree with him I respect the weight of his office. Dude had some tough decisions to make and it seems like he attempted them in good faith. 

[DirkDiggler]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clinton-nato-expansion-ukraine/629499/

 

Interesting article by Bill Clinton about his time working with Putin. While I don't 100% agree with him I respect the weight of his office. Dude had some tough decisions to make and it seems like he attempted them in good faith. 

Good article, thanks for posting.