The new airline thread

[Guardian]

Wow. Did you see an article recently saying something about needing 20,000+ pilots soon? Forgot where I saw it

[nunya]

1 hour ago, Guardian said:

Wow. Did you see an article recently saying something about needing 20,000+ pilots soon? Forgot where I saw it

CAE has had that on blast the past week or so.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-11-09/cae-forecasts-need-260000-new-pilots-through-2029

Their motives are questionable.

[hindsight2020]

that pilot sHaRtAgE bruh...something about a sucker and his money.

[HuggyU2]

4 hours ago, Guardian said:

Did you see an article recently saying something about needing 20,000+ pilots soon? Forgot where I saw it

I'm sure it was an article written by Kit Darby,...

...the eternal optimist when it comes to pilot hiring.  

[hindsight2020]

21 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

I'm sure it was an article written by Kit Darby,...

...the eternal optimist when it comes to pilot hiring.  

optimist wouldn't be my choice of words. To me, optimism implies a degree of naiveté or plausible deniability. That dude knows exactly what he's doing when he spouts that prosperity gospel....

[AirGuardianC141747]

COVID19 brought some slowdown to the new airliners being produced such as the 797 (2 seats, but engineered for 1) and the Airbus  pilotless vehicles if you will. Airbus flew several sorties recently, but with Pilots Monitoring of course, but it’s the initiative/research that is a solid endeavor going forward. Not saying we will be 0 pilot required any time soon, but the technology to cut the pilot force nearly in half within a decade was possible. 4 long haul pilots to 2 (1 asleep, 1 monitoring), 2 pilots to 1 same scenario. The MAX is back so at least they have new life longevity and of course Cargo will be the guinea pigs if this pilot reduction method is tested. 10 years was possible  but doubtful with so much iron laying around the system to draw from, within 20 years definitely a higher probability. 
 

2 worthless cents, but look around your Big Stupid Shutdown Cities: Plenty of hopeful graphs show 1% gains weekly on APC, but a guess is that it will plateau much earlier than we hope and never attain pre-COVID19 levels due to businesses having shutdown, consolidated or migrated to technology based initiatives. So many Big offices for sale, rent, empty with leases to pay, plumbing, electricity, janitorial, parking, insurance, etc with people at home creating their own work schedules who have managed to survive this debacle. Leisure and Holiday travel has its merits as people love their selfies around the world fulfilling their need to actually experience life as they have watched it go by for the past 9 months. Sure, Thanksgiving is having it’s boom hopefully right now but that’s domestically and maybe just a tad more than 50% of the travelers last year. Internationally you can just count years for that revival to be nearly what it was formerly. 
22 year United FO great friend of mine could have chosen the Airbus running through Baltimore and several other hops daily, but chose the 73 for less hops, easier runs despite the cramped quarters. He was a 787 FO enjoying international once a week perhaps and now heading back to the salt mines - his words not mine. Unfortunately this has been 1 step forward 5 steps back for many. Once again just 2 worthless cents having come off a trip through Nashville, Los Angeles, Korea, China, Alaska and back to Chicago in 5 days. Next month Alaska, Hawaii, Australia, Korea, China ground hog day - not much has changed I imagine. It’s amazing to see aircraft at many cities all over mothballed and lying in wait for 6 months so far. A380s as an example may just have only one ferry flight left in them when able or just Can (cannibal) Birds at best.

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by AirGuardianC141747

[ImNotARobot]

Found on APC. Good summary of current parking situation.

CNBC Summary

[AirGuardianC141747]

True, most of the fleets were parked just over 6 months like that initially, but thankfully quite a bit have been brought back on line except for the ones that were to be slated for the chopping block within a few years anyway. Iron is laying around more sporadically than before but still very much around. Heavies are where it hurts regarding international movement. They are still very much stacked in clusters overseas. Good review of how bad it really was. Domestic heals a lot faster although what are we at currently - 40% perhaps, have we past 50% consistently? This will take some time and the world has changed a few things around to survive.

[mcbush]

Looks like some of the low cost carriers might start to do some hiring in the next few months, starting with Frontier. Any updates on the general state of the industry from those flying commercially?

[ImNotARobot]

FedEx Update (December 2020) - We will be opening two new bases in 2021, a 767 Oakland (OAK) base and a 777 Anchorage (ANC) base. OAK is slated to open in the fourth quarter of FY21; ANC is forecast to open in the first quarter of FY22. We’re excited about these new locations and the operational flexibility they’ll provide in both the domestic and international markets. Both bases will provide opportunities for pilots as well.

Speaking of opportunity, I’m pleased to report System Bid 20-02, which closed December 3, was successful in filling nearly 400 captain and over 500 first officer vacancies.

As mentioned in previous communications, we plan to hire nearly 900 pilots in the next 18 months. It’s an aggressive plan reflecting significant business level increases we’re seeing across the system. At the same time, new pilots will be needed to cover normal attrition due to retirements and departures, as well as the need to staff new 767s and 777s joining our fleet.

Got those apps in!

[AirGuardianC141747]

Cargo outfits have been able to secure new business rapidly due to the 2020 debacle. Far faster than any plan any of them had in play; therefore, their acceleration of hiring has been above and beyond normal induction/attrition. More aircraft being ordered, delivered or converted to include a few pulled back out of the desert this past year just to fill unprecedented demand. Belly freight that normally Pax carriers had fell to pure cargo assets literally swamping the landscape initially. FedEx was quick to secure several long term contracts with prior belly freight customers as did a few others. Pax carriers revitalized some of their assets to move cargo however they could. Even Amazon for the first time purchased 11 used 767 aircraft from Delta and Westjet above and beyond its current leasing strategy. They are slated for freighter conversion.

We carry pax but not everyday fare based options, mostly charters and AMC. Our NFL has ratcheted down on schedule and our FedEx/UPS peak support is finalizing per seasonal requirements and AMC continues for now. Atlas will continue to hire (hired hundreds upon hundreds in 2020), especially with the available resources of much higher qualified candidates while the opportunity exists. Granted it’s always been harder to keep them with FedEx/UPS/Majors poaching them consistently and who could blame them. Just too easy - We hook’m, clean’m and fry’m then serve them to higher paying customers if you will. FedEx and others hire for longevity/expansion while we get some longevity some expansion but honestly attrition beyond retirements has been the primary issue it seems. We do have more demand as Atlas Air Worldwide holdings has recently placed an order for 4 more 747-8F’s to most likely finish the production line by the end of 2022. Good place to start, stay or move on to greener pastures that meet your needs. Come on in, the water is fine. 

Any Pax carrier folks out there care to share their hiring plans for 2021-22? This information will be a decent measure of the recovery of our economy. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by AirGuardianC141747

[SocialD]

17 hours ago, AirGuardianC141747 said:

Any Pax carrier folks out there care to share their hiring plans for 2021-22? This information will be a decent measure of the recovery of our economy. 

 

I have almost zero faith that we'll see any hiring this year at DAL, but words from our crew resources dude, "it's not off the table."  We just posted a small bid that brings back 400 of our unassigned pilots that they hope to have up and flying for summer.  If (big IF) the current growth continues, they plan to post a bigger bid in May/Jun to staff for summer 2022.  For that bid, they said they'll need 100 WB Captains due to all the early outs we have.  That should generate some movement and bring back quite a few more of our unassigned pilots.  Of course this depends on the world not losing their minds, the effectiveness of the vaccine and the policies of world leaders as we move forward.  I've been out on MLOA for 6-7 months for a deployment and I'm again reminded why I love part time...I can only "MIL" full time for so long.  

Edited January 26, 2021 by SocialD

[JimNtexas]

I would expect a significant increase in domestic passenger flying by this summer.  Especially if the J&J one shot vaccine gets out there.  It seems to me likely that international passenger flying will take longer to pick back up, because a lot of countries, including ours, will continue to be reluctant to allow a lot of international  visitors for a while longer.

My grandson is begging to go to Disney World, and I'd like to take him before I'm too old and decrepit. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only random dude  who is itching to get out of the local area as soon as I can.

Edited January 27, 2021 by JimNtexas
typo

[Hacker]

20 hours ago, SocialD said:

they'll need 100 WB Captains due to all the early outs we have.

I think this will be the fuze that really kicks off the next hiring spree -- not just at DAL, but industry-wide due to numerous places offering or incentivizing early retirements during COVID.

There's a lot of pent-up demand that is hiding under COVID fears and governmental restrictions.  What remains to be seen is if how rapidly that demand is allowed to translate into ticket sales.

[xaarman]

We have also seen a lot of pent up demand. Everyone has been working for a year+ and has a ton of saved up vacation to use.

 

Problem is they have nowhere to go, if they can even go at all.

 

All airlines think business travel will be back, and all gave a similar example - the second someone loses a multi million dollar deal due to Zoom issues, the company will spend a grand to send the salesman in person.

 

edit: AA earnings call said pilot hiring might resume in the "not to distant future" ... whatever that means

Edited January 28, 2021 by xaarman

[BADFNZ]

Latest union email here at SWA said to expect the most robust schedule this March that we've had since last March.  By my quick napkin math, we started the pandemic with ~9800 pilots.  We lost ~700 due to mandatory retirements and voluntary early retirements.  So that leaves ~9100 on the list, but we probably have another ~1000 still out on voluntary extended time off that will trickle back in in the next 4.5 years.  They'll definitely recall every one of those pilots before running a new hire class, but I don't think there's any way those dudes/chicks will be out for a full 4.5 years.  I think everyone believes they will be recalled much earlier.  Gun to my head, If demand picks back up to anything close to 2019 levels, I can see us maybe hiring early next year, but I think that's best case scenario.

[TnkrToad]

Sooo...for someone who still needs to do the whole ATP CTP & ATP Practical, any recommendations for a good program?

In Colorado, so looking at FTI in Denver, but if there are better options (lower cost/same or better success rate), I'd love to hear folks' advice. 

Apologies if this is the wrong thread--did a search, and this seems to be the best place to ask. 

[mcbush]

I knocked it out under the old rules, but there’s a separate ATP thread with some good info over in the general discussion section

https://www.flyingsquadron.com/forums/topic/5582-airline-transport-pilot-atp-certificate

[TnkrToad]

1 hour ago, mcbush said:

I knocked it out under the old rules, but there’s a separate ATP thread with some good info over in the general discussion section

https://www.flyingsquadron.com/forums/topic/5582-airline-transport-pilot-atp-certificate

Gotcha--thx for the point out

[HossHarris]

6 hours ago, TnkrToad said:

Sooo...for someone who still needs to do the whole ATP CTP & ATP Practical, any recommendations for a good program?

In Colorado, so looking at FTI in Denver, but if there are better options (lower cost/same or better success rate), I'd love to hear folks' advice. 

Apologies if this is the wrong thread--did a search, and this seems to be the best place to ask. 

If you have any interest in Delta, they’re program guarantees your app gets pulled and scored ... and has been pretty successful for folks  

Chet Kreske is a strike eagle bubba and runs MIL2ATP.  One stop shop. Check it out  

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by HossHarris

[discus]

Just a regional guy here (gimmick a break, I was a fucking Nav), but I am flying for THE regional. Skywest flies for American, Delta, UA, and Alaska.  We are seeing a huge uptick in travel, and many of our jets have been full or nearly full. Now some of that is due to scope clause, but we are getting busier and busier.  I do see the industry picking up steam faster than they thought it would, and see no reason why that wouldn’t continue. Our company is talking about resuming upgrades this summer and new hire by fall.  Traditionally, the regionals are the first to see increase in flying. We are also adding cities right and left due to being scoped out of traditional routes. (Using a 737 at 60% capacity KDEN to KIND is a symptom of scope).

 

Side note:  if you are a USAF pilot, DO NOT go UQ in your last year, or you will be sitting here with me, yanking gear for a Nav.  

[mcbush]

2 hours ago, discus said:

We are also adding cities right and left due to being scoped out of traditional routes. (Using a 737 at 60% capacity KDEN to KIND is a symptom of scope).

Can you expand on this for those of us on the outside looking in? I think I understand the basics of scope, but not all of the implications.

[discus]

24 minutes ago, mcbush said:

Can you expand on this for those of us on the outside looking in? I think I understand the basics of scope, but not all of the implications.

Sure,

In a nutshell, scope basically is a union negotiated strategy to save mainline jobs. Since we are a dirty contractor flying under the banner of United, American, etc, it says that we can only operate xx number of 50 seat aircraft and yy number of 76 seat aircraft in the fleet. Additionally, it says that we can only fly a certain percentage of mainline narrow body routes. It’s cheaper for United to contract with us, and have us fly say the DEN to IND route, but we can’t do it because of union restrictions, so they have to put a 737 on it with a mainline pay flight crew, even though that route traditionally only has about 64 people booked on any given flight. 
 

Scope was further reduced after ‘Rona in the union contracts with their parent companies. There is nothing the regional companies can do about these agreements, they just have to eat the shit that’s given to them.

 

to be fair, in my opinion I think it’s a good thing. There should never, ever be a contracted regional jet  carrying more than 50 PAX. Everything else should be at mainline pay.  But your ticket prices would reflect that if it were to happen. So, I continue to fly my regional 76 seat jet which has been “scoped” to 70 seats by the ‘Rona. 
 

TLDR; Unions

[SocialD]

4 hours ago, discus said:

Side note:  if you are a USAF pilot, DO NOT go UQ in your last year, or you will be sitting here with me, yanking gear for a Nav.  

 

I wasn't NQ, just a Guard fighter guy not getting enough hours and ended up at regional.  I actually had a good time, but then again I was home based, flew with Captains my age (mid-late 20s) and the FAs were mostly in the early 20s....good times.  Pay sucked, but I had lots of fun and learned a lot about the airline world.  That airline (Compass) is now no more...if you have to go to a regional, Skywest is probably your best bet.

 

 

1 hour ago, discus said:

TLDR; Unions Jobs

 

It's the most important part of the contract.  

 

 

 

To add to the thread, there seems to be more and more traction on bringing people back (and maybe hiring later this year), but we (DAL) may get more information later this week from a town hall.  Basically the airlines are expecting to be ~90% of pre-covid capacity by summer of 2022.  As Hacker eluded to early, the early outs will be a big help to get hiring kicked off as we recover.  In many (domestic) categories at Delta, there are TONS of overtime trips going out every day.  Some of that is because guys are NQ due to landings, part of it is because we have too many people out on UNA.  Either way, after your apps are put in at FDX/UPS, update your other apps...barring any major resurgence/pandemic part deux, hiring could happen fast and furious.   

Edited February 12, 2021 by SocialD

[discus]

13 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

I wasn't NQ, just a Guard fighter guy not getting enough hours and ended up at regional.  I actually had a good time, but then again I was home based, flew with Captains my age (mid-late 20s) and the FAs were mostly in the early 20s....good times.  Pay sucked, but I had lots of fun and learned a lot about the airline world.  That airline (Compass) is now no more...if you have to go to a regional, Skywest is probably your best bet.

 

Don't get me wrong.  I love the regional gig.  Where else in the civilian world do you get to click the auto pilot off at 15K feet, cancel IFR, and hand fly a jet into Glacier National Park or many other NTA's out there on a regular basis? (And not have to haul your own Ice and snacks like the biz jet guys)  I thought I was retired for two years.  Turns out I was just unemployed.  It'll happen.  

 

+1 on the correction for "Jobs".  The unions facilitate some stability in an otherwise super unstable industry.