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hindsight2020

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Everything posted by hindsight2020

  1. in a perfect world it would. In the real world?.... I've seen plenty of Marielito boatlift antics on the AETC side to know it's an actual thing coming from losing commands. I don't blame functionals from playing those metrics close to the vest as a result. Nobody likes being the last guy picked in kickball, but that's just life. I'm not advocating for it, just playing devil's advocate.
  2. white jet most likely, based on what I see come through PIT. The ratios still leave that community (bone) overmanned, judging by what inbounds into my sq have intimated of their time in that community, especially downrange.
  3. And that's the signature marker that tells me RCA TFI is a pipedream, and not at all the direction of interest by the 10th/307th critters on the AFRC side. They're not going to dismantle the entire TFI footprint in order to make a move towards the B-21 FTU (assuming it ends up in SD in the first place) in a duty station that'd make the DYS operation look like UNICEF charity work on the the commuting/travelpay front. 😄
  4. Fwiw, no active association (likely would have been the FTU, if the 307th/10th AF M.O. in KBAD was any indication) was ever pitched for the Bone side of the 307th. Which is to say that the active association angle is moot. What's your take/sense of the reasons for that unwillingness?
  5. My apologies, I meant to type active associate FTUs, to address the specific point about the B-21 FTU being pitched in SD. I wasn't aware there was an F-35 FTU active association, if true then I stand corrected. I'm of course keenly aware of legacy fleet FTU active associates (bit of a personal ancient history that's no longer here nor there), which is why I stipulated next-gen in my comments. BL, I don't see regAF ceding ground on new toy FTU PAAs.
  6. Based on the insider baseball history of the 307th BW (read: 10th AF metroplex-local mafia pet project from inception) and why a DYS classic associate was stood up in the first place, there's very little chance they stand up a significant classic association in SD. And forget an active associate, regAF will never allow it on a next-gen MWS. If retaining the footprint at DYS, zero chance of either. I personally don't see them bedding down the association at DYS any time soon (I have my theory on that), but who knows. Now, a token skeleton detachment, a la 47FS det in D-M during the days they were still hostage at BAD under the composite 917th WG? Sure, I could see that. But def not a full up TFI contingent of either flavor. My bet, nothing comes of it. "Make em tell you no!" tough. I keed I keed. 😄
  7. As to my specific comment, neither. My comment was directed at the bad faith act of asking for an economic exemption, then running a shoddy mx operation as illustrated by the chicanery on display in the NTSB narrative et al. That's why I posted the old article that went into detail on what the for-revenue exemption allows a "it's a big ----g club, and you ain't in it" anointed sampling of certificate airplane holders to do, that other exp certificate holders are not afforded. Most pedestrians don't understand the limitations that come with an experimental AWC by statute. I think it's a critical aspect of the narrative. At the very least, it's the part that interests me as an unsubsidized aircraft owner who pays for the sins of the collective. It may be peanuts to these warbird operators, but it's my skin on the game nonetheless. In fairness, I make the same commentary on Boeing or the surgeon who morts himself single pilot in the Meridian. Now, in regards to your second inference, I'm of course not privy to the specific maintenance practices/philosophy of other organizations, to make a statement that effectively singles out Collings. What I do know is that the latter lost the benefit of the doubt writ large as a consequence of the mx and operational details behind the accident narrative. If people feel that is an unfair or "singled out" representation of the Collings operation, well tough cookie. Don't crash a revenue-allowance experimental with public passengers on board next time, with all that dumpster fire of a ground ops and [uncovered] maintenance profiles. Lastly, regarding your first inference, that was not the impetus behind my comment, but you dang skippy I have a TON to say about that as well. But that wasn't germane to the thread. I do recognize I'm in mixed company here with folks who rub shoulders and partake in the flying activities of the warbird little fiefdom within OUR hobby. I'm not interested in the flame war that would likely start on the public forum by expanding on that topic, but I'm more than happy to discuss that angle offline or via PM. I just don't consider it germane to the thread. Hope that clarifies my intent. Cheers!
  8. Word. Eastern TN has recently popped up in our radar for potential post .mil and empty nester relocation. Wife is sick and tired of the sprawl here in metro TX but I'm still probably gonna have to do about 10 years of a-word work after mil retirement to get me to the finish line, so we want to retain no income tax residency like we currently enjoy. Chattanooga is a primary POI for me right now.
  9. The experience of these old timers is moot. This is about these "it's a big effing club...and you ain't in it", "foundations" sub-culture getting that limited/experimental passenger for hire exemption to their airplane type certificate pulled. Which, just like it did for IFT in the USAF when they went to IFS, dries up the gig for these cabals overnight. That's what this is really about. Everybody fly safe out there. Happy new year!
  10. FY 18 SUPT numbers were closer to 150. So even SUPT has not been getting 2-hondo for a while now.
  11. Interesting discussion. For all the legitimate gripes [and gratuitous sport-bitches alike] I have about AFRC, I can say they've haven't yet treated the nuances of my career motivations with the level of backhanded derision intimated on this thread of much of AD. In further fairness to AFRC, at least under my current NAF, they've made inroads towards keeping the conga line moving on the promotion front for those so interested in management, by converting line O-5 AGR positions into term billets. Separating them from those of us in non-term (AFRC speak for voluntary-permanent) positions (an O-4 control grade). This is being done in order to not get stuck with MSD "squatters" in O-5 AGRs who tended to time out younger guys with aspirations/grooming for command. That had been a legitimate problem for a decade plus. Shocker as it may be to the AD audience, not everybody has a penchant for making O-5 as the litmus test for feeling dignified/properly compensated in life. The ARC doesn't penalize you for it by forcing an up-or-out on the lower (O-4) control grade. I think that was a good balance and compromise all things considered. One man's opinion and all that. Of course, one is encouraged to keep all avenues open, which is why I completed ACSC DL. But my point is that in general, nobody around here is shaming me (so far) for taking pride in being a high time IP/EP, expending my time and energy in mentorship roles in ADCON/OPCON alike, while looking forward to a very much earned 20-24yr O-4 (or even O-5 in the right circumstances) AD retirement and Tricare in my late 40s. Based on this thread, it's clear to me that is viewed with derision if not outright contempt in AD. Maybe they should work on that cultural blind spot. I suppose if one wanted to be believed when uttering that tactical experts are indeed a quantity to be valued/retained, perhaps don't start off the salvo by insinuating that role should be compensated at the level of a slick wing O-3 with no bonus, just because the O-5 aspirants regard flight ops to be menial CGO scutwork on their way to middle management. Dynamic which I find ironic, given half of them weren't worth a shit at flying/employing in the first place. I could further retort that AD grants IP/EP credentials to these managers-in-training waaay too soon/liberally for their britches, leading AD flying organizations looking like a bunch of unsupervised children who end up bending metal, while petulantly smearing the bystanders' (ANG/AFRC Silverbacks and Iron-Majors et al) warnings as ramblings of irrelevant malcontents. I could further point at the dozen or so class-As as exhibit A thru L to further illustrate the fruits of that blind spot, but I think I've made my point, so I digress. I like some of the ideas floated previously, especially a non-punitive look at later-in-life opportunities to cross-flow/special flying programs. "Choose your own adventure" indeed. Cheers!
  12. They're not wrong though. AD is punitive and vindictive. Interactions, let alone social media ones, of any kind w/ leadership are a North Korean parade. And don't get too comfortable with the ARC; AFRC is not too far behind, especially for the full time cadre. The issue at hand with the specific senior leader in question here, is that he is known to hold grudges, and has made recent manning and funding distribution edicts that make it clear he has an axe to grind. Some people argue the stint at DLF broke Chuckles. At any rate, initially everybody assumed that the ideological "commitment to one's own legend" would be a limited compared to the aforementioned AETC/CC. But that mirage quickly faded into today, clearly plastered all over social media. As such, engaging such figures on an open vest forum like FB is just asking to get homed-on-jam. Caveat Emptor.
  13. Ah, but he's not interested in introspective answers. Only outward deflection. Standard careerist tool. He demands integrity and self-deprecation, but is intolerant of any (of consequence) coming his way. Fact is the guy took the mantle where that pseudo-intellectual word-salad sophistry spewing B-15 illuminati Kwast left it , and has been running on the same snake oil ever since. Problem is they have full buy-in from the CSAF, and if you raise any criticism you're a Luddite and "part of the problem" to them. Frankly, I'm surprised heads are not already rolling on a retaliatory/deflection basis at the OG and lower level at Shaw over the oversights on the ORM and supervisor-of-flying front highlighted in the AIB. Hell, they fired more people farther away from the epicenter during the 2007 Bent Spear, and nobody died nor did any glowsticks lose USAF custody at any point on that one. Ironically, it's the MX practices of our AF that ultimately killed him, but since those critters have their 781 signatures and TCTO extension get outta jail free cards, once again the lessons won't be learned by the correct people. Talk about the mother of moral hazards.
  14. Must be. The airman currently stationed at DLF is a PTN graduate and a current T-6 MSI instructor pending his completion of a degree in order to qualify to attend OTS, then become assignable to an 11(X) billet.
  15. optimist wouldn't be my choice of words. To me, optimism implies a degree of naiveté or plausible deniability. That dude knows exactly what he's doing when he spouts that prosperity gospel....
  16. that pilot sHaRtAgE bruh...something about a sucker and his money.
  17. Exactly, and that's the part that bothers me the most about this whole thing. Ever since the OG/MX split, friction with MX has become SOP, and it's completely out of hand. The antagonism and adversarial relationships on a day to day TOP3-MOC interactions are beyond the pale. So are these deferral and tail-shuffling games. I don't know the dynamic on the Viper side, but my experience has been similar in all 3 duty stations I've been involved in. Yeah yeah, we're all innocent in Shawshank. Spare me. 3x deferring the control module for a hot seat is so unconscionable it's criminal in my moral code, in light of a fatality. Unreal. I don't even know why I go through the kabuki of reading the forms these days, everything is TCTO deferred. It's f*ckin- meaningless at this point.
  18. Ruh roh. Not a flattering look for the ACES seat. No way even the most experienced driver is going to have the presence of mind and the in-the-blind dexterity to pull the manual override in a ground level ejection attempt, at night no less. Manual seat sep from a ground pull is just not a realistic expectation under any circumstances. Surprised this hasn't got more public scrutiny in the community. The TUL ANG ejection cited even allocuted to the fact that dude had the benefit of daylight and a looong freefall to gather his thoughts and remind himself of the manual seat-sep option. This kid (he was a student of mine at DLF) didn't get that chance. The most contentious and soul-searching weeks of my AF career by far, were the weeks immediately following the 38 crash in our AD associate squadron, due to the NAF level leadership's unwillingness to speak immediately as to the SIB-relevant facts pertaining to the condition of the seats following the fatality. That soured a lot of people, and created a climate of open dissent, and led to a couple of firings. Ugly stuff all around, even for DLF (which was just coming out of Mollygate and the T-6 MX firings, and is a football bat of a place on a good day). Then there was that big boo boo in Midland with the Bone, and the eventual inspection revealing NONE of the seats would have fired. I could go on. These are fundamentally confidence-eroding trends, and big blue better get their @ss around it or it's gonna lead to chaos. The pointy jet/non-deadstickable business doesn't have the off roading option like I used to joke about during my T-6 IP days. On this side of the street you need confidence in your seat or things get insubordinate real quick. As to the decision not to controlled eject, I'm not gonna second guess the element lead and SOF. That's a tough one though. Even by the AIB's own stipulation, the kid would have still faced the hardship of having to have the presence of mind to manually seat-sep a faulty seat during a controlled bailout attempt... At night, not knowing he had a bad seat. Eff those odds. I don't know the Viper's landable gear combos, but in the 38 one main up one main down is a no-go. Difficult to ascertain the weight bearing capacity of a damaged MLG on this accident, especially given the indications of brace damage as described by the chase ship. The kid did the best he could given the information presented at the time. That seat betrayed him period dot. That pull was textbook in the envelope, should have led to a canopy. I'm at a loss.
  19. We have F-16 ADAIR part time? Reserve T-38 ADAIR is closing shop in Florida, so there's that issue. As to ART vs AGR, that's MDS-irrelevant, and a discussion onto itself.
  20. I hadn't read that account from Pedro 16 perspective. Thanks for the link. That really confirms what I suspected about a rather cryptic online history on MJ's account of events. Sounds like typical embellishment and mischaracterization of direct action account, not unlike the behavior that McSally's critics frequently pointed to. It's real unfortunate, especially for the rest of the female demographic just going about their jobs without the ulterior motive of gender-weaponizing in civilian/political life. Nothing new under the sun I guess.
  21. Neither was McBlinky in the A-10. Didn't stop her from running for office. Considering the political bent of this forum, I think the question is moot and banal. I'm more interested in hearing some anecdotes regarding the claims of her service. Was her telling of the story of the events during that LZ exchange legit (to include her rather incisive accusation of cowardice onto the AC of Pedro 16), or is this another female making it difficult for others to gain and retain credibility in the military due to embellishment and foot-shifting about the predictably perennial sexual harassment tit-for-tat or gender-bent pandering that seems be at the root of many 'ascendant' female officers in political life?
  22. Well, you could submit a CMS case with the FY20 AvB application, presumably with current AGR orders to 20AD now on hand, on Mypers and find out. No crystal ball and all that, but the AGR bonus is not likely to go away entirely in FY21. It certainly stands to lower in offering, we will have to see. As to 140K, current AGR bonuses are only offered in 3 year increments, so that number doesn't add up in current offering. A 4th year would require a renewal contract. Though you mentioned career status, so you've probably been a bonus recipient previously and all these contracts would be renewals anyways. As of the last two FY, the Reserve AvB didn't have a penalty for renewal contracts. It's probably not a stretch to see it go back to that though. I'm a non-airline career AGR btw, not that an AD guy couldn't have given ya the same piece of information, as the programs parallel themselves pretty close (sans the lump sump options in AD). AGR Bonus was never an inflection point in my decision to not pursue airline employment for a career, but that's a my monkey my circus thing. Good luck to ya.
  23. wish in one hand... Perpetual War is not the bug silly wabbit, it's the feature. Besides, those tax-free apportionments, sTrEeT cReD discounts on Grunt Style apparel, and turkey-shoot BOGO AMs aren't gonna issue themselves you see... But since we're on the Xmas wish list this early, hell tack on EUCOM to that list afaic. 😄
  24. Oh lookie, it's children of the magenta "5th gen" style. "tHaT's jUsT tHe aDmIn bRuH". The irony of the intersectionality between 5th gen'er commentary and the PTN/UPTX.X shills does not escape me. Oh well, Uncle hindsight's gotta get back to "standing in the way of progress" and tend to my Luddite affairs now. Horse got loose from the ol' buggy in the final turn again....*shouts in the distance* "runway-airspeed-bank Stan, there ya go, watch your sink Stan...."
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