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Your last sentence is what gives me pause. Chopping assets in a manner not much different than push CAS seems a different animal than planning stand off munition waves. Mainly requiring a release of assets much earlier. Quibbles aside, I would think the other speed bump that would need to be sorted is who buys the munitions. SOCOM bought tends to be forbidden fruit for the CAF (laser SDB). I'd think the optimum Jiu Jitsu move would be to get Big Blue (probably through the Guard) to buy the desired munitions for NGB Vipers (or whatever) to free up the allocation process and money streams. Assuming I'm remembering my staff time correctly and there haven't been changes.

How so? The war was launched based on an “imminent nuclear threat” which none of our intel agencies corroborate and the White House won’t elaborate on. Tulsi Gabbard dodged the question when asked about it and our own counterterrorism director resigned in disgust. As far as having no plan, I think that is made more evident day by day as the goals, strategies, and rhetoric shift constantly. Every time Trump is asked what the plan is he just goes “I think something amazing will happen in the next few days and the war will be over very soon.” And then the war doesn’t end and nothing amazing happens. Just more incoherent tweets and strategy pivots. Whenever I ask you guys what the plan is, all I get is “rEduCe iRaNs iNflUenCe iN the rEgiOn aNd mAKe sUrE thEy cAnT pROjeCt pOwEr” Sick. Has any of that been accomplished? And before you say we blew up their Air Force and Navy for the 69th time, I’ll just nip that in the bud.. at no point ever was the primary power projection concern with Iran their Air Force or Navy. At this point If you believe this administration has a coherent plan, you’re the naive one. Before the last negotiations they said “Iran is desperate for a deal” and then came away with no deal… The “fell for it again” meme could not be more applicable than for some of you in this thread.

One more recommendation Funny book, haven’t seen the movie but I liked the book, was assigned in a history class more than a few years ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Man_in_Havana

Saw this article with morning coffee, which tries to address drone defense vs ground troops, I think. Yahoo TechThe Iranian Drone Problem Forced a Radical Fix — The Mari...US marines just gave the M4 a driver-assist system for shooting drones. The modern infantry battlefield is quietly undergoing a transformation that feels as much like a shift in automotive control sysAnd then there's this company, which takes standard guns and turns em into automated, anti-drone point defense systems. Looks like they got rigs for Ma Deuce, 30mm Bushmaster, and the 7.62 minigun as well as the pic below, M240. Bullfrog M240An autonomous M240 weapon station to handle the full kill chain up to group 3 UASSeems like companies are seeing the current battlefield and are making stuff.

Just ordered thanks for the rec!

Good stuff. This is a winner IMHO, if we can affect change in Cuba with ideally not a shot fired or very few. Used to be based in MIA and flew the HAV turn a fair bit, several CAs were of Cuban ancestry I flew trips with and the personal connection to the nation was always strong, if… the government changes the support from the diaspora community would be there, likely too from other places where Cubans have settled.

Yup Recommend this book to anyone wanting historical context on the US, Cuba, Spain on our relationship with Cuba and the Caribbean broadly https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=32225389305&dest=USA&ref_=ps_ggl_18382194370&cm_mmc=ggl-_-US_Shopp_Trade0to10-_-product_id=US9780805035001NEW-_-keyword=&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=17190383930&gclid=Cj0KCQjwkYLPBhC3ARIsAIyHi3Qnl5NVKWRMObFCPideawRKr4h0xWBhurXdqxzWpnvJrhhGI73B0HwaAnWYEALw_wcB

Why do you say that? There are very rational reasons for FISA, and I think people generally don’t understand how it works (hence why someone like Trump said “kill it,” then subsequently changed stance when he learned how it actually works and what it produces). That’s not to say abuse doesn’t happen, but that abuse is happening whether rules exist or not. So, why bureaucratically hamstring us on foreign intel collect that saves lives and wins fights?

The numbers actually do support the “they really shined” comment. I know that emotional, subjective assessments may differ. You’re not wrong about needing more interceptors or that the Army needs to put more effort into cUAS. But, your overall tone is Iran accomplished a lot - they did not.

I wish I could say it is stunning but the left desperately wants to protect illegal immigrants. In California alone there is an estimated $6B per year in fraud related to illegals.

Growing up in Miami I am still close with many Cubans who came over during the Mariel boatlift. Several of them absolutely hate Trump but are over the top supportive of his actions as they related to Cuba. One has an older brother that served many years in the Cuban Army. My friend paid a LOT of money to help his brother emigrate to the U.S. about 20 years ago. His brother was much older when he came over and he was never able to integrate here in the U.S. and ultimately decided to go back. My friend sends his brother food each month and has shared words about the conditions which are terrible to say the least. My friend worked for the CIA for many years then moved to academia and is ready to fully retire. He was here visiting a few weeks ago and told me he is planning to postpone his retirement for several years and plans to return to Cuba to help them rebuild if the current government falls. he has shared there are several Cuabn American groups that have been planning for months to return and help rebuild the island.

TR approves!!

Back in the day on ol BODN, someone posted a pic like this with the caption, "Lead, Two, You're on Fire" and I keep wondering if Vance has a pair to say that to Donnie T. Maybe JD thinks that one day Trumpism will catch up with the feller and take him down and he can just step over the shit pile and assume the role. Place your bets. Really. You can make a buck on this stuff.

Idk how this is anyone’s conclusion watching this conflict. Iran basically had nothing but TBMs and drones and were able to attrit our systems and interceptor numbers to the point they were scoring direct hits on strategic assets up until days before the ceasefire. How can we expect after that result to be able to deal with a real peer threat like China that can throw the entire spectrum of munitions at us including things far more advanced than anything Iran can dream of? The statement (elsewhere in the thread) that we need more interceptors is the understatement of the century. And a variety of systems is key too. The army is lagging insanely behind in counter drone technology despite watching it play out for years in Ukraine. I’ll just say that it’s typical army.. they want their tank and artillery ground war and everything other than that plays second fiddle strategically for them in terms of development and funding priorities. I think this conflict should serve as a huge wake up call. We are shit hot on offense, nights 1-7 but sustaining a war in a contested space where your assets are actually under threat isn’t something we’ve dealt with in a long time.

damn skippy

That mechanism already exists in doctrine. Excess airpower is supposed to kick over to the JFACC and has in every conflict since Kosovo (there was HUGE fight over gunships in Kosovo that drove discussion and doctrine updates at the 4 star level. During OEF I routinely flew as a SOF asset one night and was chopped as excess to the CJFAC the next night. That construct does require the stars to act like adults which can be a challenge. AFSOC wants to be part of the big fight and they know they can't given the threat so now more than ever they are open to new approaches. Things like small cruise missile let them play and make a valuable contribution. Interestingly the effort to being SCM to AFSOC was done on a CRADA with AFSOC (SOCOM) dollars...a level of commitment from the current commander who sees the value. I've said it here many times, having the ability to put large numbers (100+), on an MC-130 enables AFSOC to send a large swarm with just a few planes, such a swarm would be a real threat to anything trying to cross the straight...especially if they have ATR and are on the link. Putting SCM on A1K and operating from unimproved strips/fields/beaches allows new attack vectors that dramatically changes the calculus for the Chinese. Think about a couple of A1Ks operating out of dirt strips where they were able to infiltrate unobserved. They pop up, launch a volley of SCM and immediately move on to a new dirt strip to rearm and refuel.

Meanwhile… https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/04/15/pentagon-ramps-up-secret-cuba-planning-trump/89623722007/#

I wonder how many cases of Zyn and monster you can fit in that Sea Choad 🤔

Please quote me where I stated that prices wouldn't be affected. I'll wait. In any case, what this really does is put the US squarely in the driver's seat as to who is the main supplier of oil in the world. That is a great position to be in. I'm not sure, but this is a good question and an avenue to explore. Maybe there's something there to be had? I bet China's ambitions WRT Taiwan have been cut down to size. They would struggle mightily if they attempted to conduct large scale military operations while the US has a stranglehold on the global oil supply. A few well-placed cruise missiles into pipelines connecting Russia and China and they're in the hurt locker. Risk is the nature of military operations. I'm not aware they're being ranged by anything Iranian, however. I'm also confident that the Navy knows what it's doing here. Again, do you think we're going about this like we did in Desert Storm or Iraq? I don't think that's our strategy. I never said anything about hearts and minds or democracy. Like I've stated numerous other times, I think it's best we allow time to work on the culture and see what happens organically. Iraq and Afghanistan have shown we don't know what we're doing with regard to nation-building. Best we stick to destroying governments. I will note though, that you continue to sidestep or otherwise avoid the relevant facts I've pointed out, namely that Iran is far more dependent on the straight than we are. Do you not want to address the implications of that? Too much to wrestle with? Doesn't fit into the mental model you've constructed? Anyway, everything you addressed above is either misattributed to something you 'think' I would say, or perhaps something you think someone like me would say. In other words, it was all projection. So here is what I think: It doesn't matter what happens in the short term to Iran's government. In the end it will be changed for better or worse. I don't care which way it goes. I only care that their military capability has been diminished and their ability to project power going forward declines. Both of those things have happened and will continue to happen. The fact that Iran no longer has the initiative to sell oil to illicit customers puts the ball squarely back in their court as to the next move. I'll note that almost immediately after we closed the straight, suggestions of 'talks' between the two parties began again. Thus, even though you constructed your own strawman to beat up, I at least give you an 'e' for effort for posting without reference to something Trump said. That, alone, is a move in the right direction.

Already posted in the Expeditionary Missionary Position Seaplane thread but pretty much… I don’t know but a seaplane capability probably would help with a Kharg Island landing so make it happen

CH, what's your take on AFSOC tasking outside the TSOC bubble? I remember the unleash the gunships article from years back, but it always seems to come back to funding and SOCOM's penny packet. Is there a realistic future where CFACC target taskings via ATO would actually flow to a TSOC asset? I like the idea, I'm just a bit cynical I suppose.

@Clark Griswold …

That’s a very naive and objectively wrong statement. Additionally, I’m not tracking anyone here that said there aren’t any cons to a blockade. Thus, everything you said following said statements is invalid. Feel free to make your case starting from a true and accurate premise. You certainly don’t need to come to the same conclusion as others, but if you can’t start from truth, then the rest doesn’t matter.

No kidding. Supposedly I was supposed to go to MFS 9 April but I wasn't notified and MFS wasn't actually ever scheduled for me according to Wright Patterson.