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ClearedHot

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  1. Again, I don't think you understand the U.S. government and their willingness to change the rules of the game. As a Senior VP I had lawyers, former government contracting officers and industry experts parsing every bit of language in every contract. We were still at the whims of the government...they ALWAYS reserve the right to cancel the contract so companies are usually on their heals. The really sad part, the government PMs are largely terrible...they would not be employable elsewhere. Let me share an example...I need to slightly change it so as not to give away names and such. I was working a project to integrate munitions and sensor capabilities on some high-end aircraft. The company was state of the art with some of the best programmers in the business...doing crazy cool things with software and sensors. We were using a software process called "Agile", which has been around for a number of years and is VASTLY superior to the way programming was done in the past (Waterfall). Under the old system (Waterfall), if you were building a program to accomplish a task you would start at the beginning and work sequentially through the task to write the program. Years ago some smart programmers decided on a new method that breaks the project into chunks and assigns levels of difficulty to each stage. Then they focus on the stages that are hardest to complete and assign a lot of energy to run sprints to develop and complete those tasks. There is an agreement that each segment has an agreed upon input scheme and out put scheme (Interface Control Document - ICD). As long as everyone sticks to the ICD you can develop individual modules very efficiently. We were 1/3 of the way into a project and the government sent a large team to do a milestone review. They did not grasp and had never heard of Agile (despite our briefing when we bid the project). Several hours into the review they wanted to talk to me and the senior leadership team in private. The point blank told us they were going to cancel the project because we were so far behind...we had not even completed the first block of the program. It took several hours standing at a whiteboard AGAIN describing AGILE and exactly where we were. Of course we did not complete the first block...turning the program on and getting to a start menu was the easiest thing in the project, we had been focuses on cursor on target mensurated three digit coordinates while blending multiple sensors. They put on us on "probation" and we provided weekly reviews...Much to their surprise we ended up delivering the project SIX months EARLY, BELOW cost and with ZERO defects. I can;t stress enough how impressive it is to have zero defects....the power of AGILE. I can give you COUNTLESS other examples...it is a FUBAR'd mess.
  2. Have you heard of a thing called the U.S. Government? They ALWAYS change the rules...
  3. ClearedHot replied to VL-16's topic in Squadron Bar
    I have not shot it yet, hopefully one day this week. I stumbled across it and read/watched a bunch of the reviews. Two biggest benefits they push are recoil management and stability improvement. I wanted something small (foldable) to keep in my truck but also opened up with more accuracy and firepower than just a pistol. The Glock Gen 17 Gen V is the most accurate of the 9MMs, adding the frame gives more stability and the red dot is a plus which I think will improve accuracy at range. Running a 30 round mag and carrying two 16 round mags on the frame is a lot of response in one grab. I will report back after I shoot it. The reviews have been solid.
  4. The old acquisition adage, we all fly into combat in platforms built by the lowest bidder...
  5. A lot of shake ups yesterday. It took Miami half the game to figure out how to play without Toney. The faithful are saving we got robbed on the TD catch...I could go either way but the refs gave us good calls in other games so we were due. Win out and we are in...Toney should be back for the ACC title game. UGA stomped Ole Miss...My son was there and by the 3rd quarter the fans were throwing things on the field. Ungood Rebels... Utah looks TOUGH! The truly sad part about yesterday, a parade of powerful November games will have far less meaning next year with a 24 team playoff.
  6. I am fully retired now, but throughout my career, I generally preferred Firm-Fixed-Price (FFP) contracts for everything except situations like this. With FFP contracts, I was driven to find efficiencies that could increase profitability. Improvements in manufacturing efficiency, supply chain management, engineering processes, and labor productivity directly improve margins. The problem arises when the government has shifting priorities and requirements, as it did with the T-7. The program is a perfect example of how winning a competitive FFP development contract is not necessarily the same thing as winning a profitable program. The Air Force made three significant changes to the T-7 program and, in my view, attempted to push much of the associated cost onto Boeing. I suspect SNC is concerned the Navy will do something similar. 1. Expanded pilot accommodation requirements The Air Force expanded the required pilot accommodation range, primarily affecting the crew escape system. At contract award, the requirements were based substantially on a 1967 male pilot survey. Two years after the award, the Air Force changed the requirement to accommodate the central 95% of the U.S. recruiting population, including women weighing as little as 103 pounds. This was a significant and expensive engineering change to the aircraft. 2. Evolving training performance requirements The training performance requirements were not fully defined at the outset. To its credit, the Air Force wanted a platform that was not simply a replacement for the T-38, but a better training aid for fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft. Initial testing revealed that the aircraft did not meet the sustained-G performance metrics and exhibited significant wing rock at high angles of attack (AOA). The Air Force offered to pay the increased engineering costs to address these issues, but those costs were not fully burdened, and Boeing lost significant money implementing some of the fixes. Ultimately, the Air Force lowered some of the performance requirements. 3. Changes to the procurement strategy When a company bids on a contract, particularly an FFP contract, much of the anticipated profit comes in the out-years as production ramps up. If you slip the schedule by a year and reduce the number of aircraft purchased each year, the financial impact on the vendor can be devastating. Based on the original schedule, Boeing purchased many long-lead items in advance to reduce costs and meet delivery requirements. When the Air Force changed the procurement strategy, Boeing was left holding the bag on much of that supply chain commitment. From a taxpayer perspective, FFP contracts are generally a good thing. You budget for a capability and spend within that budget unless you change the requirements. They also incentivize companies to invest their own money in Independent Research and Development (IR&D), which drives innovation throughout the U.S. defense industry. The situation under Trump has been different because the government injected significant amounts of money into defense programs all at once. Prior to that, the Department of Defense was increasingly asking industry to assume all the risk, only to occasionally cancel programs after companies had invested tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars in development. The Light Attack program is a perfect example. The Air Force spent relatively little while promising to purchase hundreds of aircraft, a commitment that never materialized. I know several CEOs who went to the Pentagon after that and a few other similar incidents and essentially said, "We won't play this game again." Justifiably so. They have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. I know of two occasions when my former company flat-out said, "NO THANKS" when the Air Force asked us to bid on something. The service was incredulous, and the Secretary of the Air Force eventually engaged our CEO directly. His response was essentially: Either you fund the development upfront or give us a contract. If not, adios. I highly suspect that was the same calculus SNC used in making its decision.
  7. Big day with some big games. Sadly, the 24 game playoff will make Saturdays like this meaningless going forward. BYU v Utah - should be fun to watch More two loss SEC teams playing on the bubble today. Alabama v LSU should be a war...UK v Tenn as well...Ga v Ole Miss is a season make or break for the Rebels. Miami facing Notre Dame without our best player....can Miami Run the ball and find other receivers to step up especially on long 3rd downs? Everyone hates Miami again so college football order has been restored...if they lose the drone from the Domers will be intolerable for the entire enterprise. Great time of year.
  8. ClearedHot replied to VL-16's topic in Squadron Bar
    New fold up truck gun. There is a Glock 17 Gen 5 in there. Holds two extra mags on the gun.
  9. You may be right but I think you underestimate the willingness of the left to impeach, investigate and keep the focus on conflict. Trump will be Trump but I think the general public will grow weary of the constant bickering and they will accomplish nothing, opening the door for a GOP resurgence in two years. All of the usual suspects (Schumer, Schiff and AOC), are prioritizing sweeping investigations, and potential impeachment inquiries targeting specific members of the Trump administration and his FAMILY.
  10. ClearedHot replied to VL-16's topic in Squadron Bar
    My Prediction: Impeached Trump Impeach Hegseth Massive cuts of aid to Israel Cuts to defense budget Defund/Abolish ICE Push numerous nationalized Healthcare bills to POTUS to Veto Sanctuary for illegals Gun control legislation ZERO economic policies And...right on cue...Rubio rumored to exit Trump administration to set up possible 2028 White House bid
  11. ClearedHot replied to VL-16's topic in Squadron Bar
    As others have said the DNC is going to flop right back to extreme partisan policy efforts...the game continues.
  12. MARSHA Blackburn, not Martha. Rubio has proven his metal and found a way to navigate the Trump bombastic comments by sticking to policy. I think he has been great as SECSTATE and it rounded out his resume. Proven Senator with superb foreign policy experience. It will come down to the grip Trump has on the GOP and the way the voters walked away from him it will be easier for the party leadership to ignore Trump and push JD aside.

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