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Promotion and PRF Information

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7 hours ago, otsap said:

My math may be wrong, but I think it's an 80% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

Using the promotion rate/DP rate of:  90%/50% 

Say 100 folks are up for promotion for easy math.  50 get DPs and all are promoted.  50 get a P, but to reach a 90% promotion rate, 40 of those with a P would need to get promoted.  40/50=80%....I think.

The big change I learned about yesterday is that line numbers will be given based on merit order, rather than date of rank.  So the promotion board will rack and stack everyone, and pin-on will occur based on where you end up in that stack.  Seems like a good change since you will now know where the board stacked you against your peers.

edit: Benny beat me to it

Where did you get this info on merit based line numbers?

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12 minutes ago, Epiloo said:

Where did you get this info on merit based line numbers?

It was in the NDAA authorizing the changes to the promotion system. The Navy already implemented merit based reordering on their selection boards last year. 

Edited by Bigred

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1 hour ago, Bigred said:

It was in the NDAA authorizing the changes to the promotion system. The Navy already implemented merit based reordering on their selection boards last year. 

It was in a briefing by my senior rater, but Bigred's source is even better.

Also, static closeouts for OPRs.  A lot of changes going on.

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2 hours ago, Epiloo said:

Where did you get this info on merit based line numbers?

It was also in the CSAF brief to Wing Commanders.

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Why aren't CCs and Wing Kings more open and honest about who may or may not be promoted? Or do they simply not have a clue about who will be promoted to O-4/O-5? I was talking to my CC about a Flt/CC who isn't going to be submitted for school. I told the CC you have to tell him how he isn't performing well and what he can do better. I spoke with the guy and he said if I don't make Lt Col, I'm okay with all the time I've spent with my family. I shook my head like hell yeah bro. 

I do feel as though if CCs were more honest about performance, most officers won't stick around in the Air Force. 

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25 minutes ago, LaneHBO said:

Why aren't CCs and Wing Kings more open and honest about who may or may not be promoted?

A lot of people never ask. 

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^Me. No SOS at all. Promoted to Maj. Got high-fives from the enlisted dudes in my Sq. Enjoyed watching the Os get all butthurt about it. 

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35 minutes ago, Mustache Sally said:

^Me. No SOS at all. Promoted to Maj. Got high-fives from the enlisted dudes in my Sq. Enjoyed watching the Os get all butthurt about it. 

Making my "Oh Wow" face right now. Probably every DG or wanna be DG pulled out a pitch fork.

I can't seem to find the article from Gen Kelly. But the promotion boards are still going to be a mixture of AFSCs I believe.

Edited by LaneHBO

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17 minutes ago, Mustache Sally said:

^Me. No SOS at all. Promoted to Maj. Got high-fives from the enlisted dudes in my Sq. Enjoyed watching the Os get all butthurt about it. 

Was that under the "100% to major" promotion boards?

And do you think not having SOS will hurt you going into the O-5 boards?

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I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true. 

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3 hours ago, elephants201 said:

I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true. 

Dude, if you’re pressing the cutoff for SOS and nobody has indicated that you’ll go 1) your leadership really really doesn’t like your act or 2) has forgotten. More likely 2 is true.

Why roll the bones on meeting the board without it? If you’re a pilot, you’ll still be under an ADSC when you pin on. No reason not to take the money in exchange for a vacation to Maxwell. 

Ask your Bobs. Remember, there’s rarely a secret plan, oversights are common, and nobody cares about managing your career but you. 

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3 hours ago, elephants201 said:

I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true. 

You either have shitty leadership or they don't like you (or both) if you are coming up to a Maj board and have no clue about your SOS plans.  If you care about your career, then ask the question or just do it in correspondence.  The truth is that unless you are top 10% the USAF doesn't go out of their way to help your career plans and it's up to your own motivation to find your way.

I'm always baffled why people avoid 6 weeks of drinking in Montgomery with weekends on the gulf with literally no responsibility but to show up to class relatively sober each day and get released early afternoon.  Yes it's dumb.  Have I done dumber things in the military?  You bet.

At some point you realize some of the easiest money you've made in your career were when you were a student...and any opportunity to be one again is generally a good deal.

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6 hours ago, pawnman said:

Was that under the "100% to major" promotion boards?

And do you think not having SOS will hurt you going into the O-5 boards?

I’m not sure of the details of the board. I AM sure my private parts and the pilot shortage had a lot to do with my “success.”

I highly doubt I’ll be promoted to O-5, which is fine by me. I’m getting out as soon as possible.

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4 hours ago, jice said:

Dude, if you’re pressing the cutoff for SOS and nobody has indicated that you’ll go 1) your leadership really really doesn’t like your act or 2) has forgotten. More likely 2 is true.

Why roll the bones on meeting the board without it? If you’re a pilot, you’ll still be under an ADSC when you pin on. No reason not to take the money in exchange for a vacation to Maxwell. 

Ask your Bobs. Remember, there’s rarely a secret plan, oversights are common, and nobody cares about managing your career but you. 

I could have sworn I saw an email from the Wing essentially saying they are seeing decreased numbers for SOS in general for the AF. Commanders need to ensure they are submitting CGOs to attend. Trying to find that email because that is less money Maxwell AFB/SOS receives with lower attendance numbers.

After reading some of the CGO posts on the forum made me think. Either this is a coincidence or maybe there is SOS pushback? 

Edited by LaneHBO

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8 hours ago, Mustache Sally said:

 

I’m not sure of the details of the board. I AM sure my private parts and the pilot shortage had a lot to do with my “success.”

I highly doubt I’ll be promoted to O-5, which is fine by me. I’m getting out as soon as possible.

Just get acsc in correspondence and stay AD. There’s nobody left....

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5 hours ago, IDALPHA said:

Just get acsc in correspondence and stay AD. There’s nobody left....

About that...

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Posted (edited)

Just received IPZ PRF for Lt Col.   I received a P 😞

 

that was with:

#1/5 Majors (deployed)

#6/24 Majors (Gp/CC)

#22/150 Majors (Wg/CC)

#7/160 Majors (Wg/CC)

all on 4 different OPRs

 

 

im at a new organization now.... currently stratted #2/7, only behind a Lt Col (S)....but “lucky” me, that’s on my PRF, and it looks bad IMO

Edited by bennynova
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How many IPZ in your category? We saw our base get no outright DPs this year because of the category split. Did you get the “my next” or “if I had one”?


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

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22 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

How many IPZ in your category? We saw our base get no outright DPs this year because of the category split. Did you get the “my next” or “if I had one”?


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

At the base, upwards of 30 in the category at the MLR.   1/1 at my Senior Rater.   Did not get any sort of super P

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3 hours ago, bennynova said:

At the base, upwards of 30 in the category at the MLR.   1/1 at my Senior Rater.   Did not get any sort of super P

Wouldn't sweat it too much.  They have to promote some Ps and with the 2-line PRF, I think the Super P phenomena will be a thing of the past (although no guidance actually forbids it).  Sounds like you have a consistent record as an O-4.  What were your bottom line PRF Strats?  1/1 I/APZ and 2/7 Wg O-4s?  Only one eligible for your SR is kind of brutal.  Forces you to MLR which can be a crap shoot for non-shiny penny records.  

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1 hour ago, celtic020 said:

Wouldn't sweat it too much.  They have to promote some Ps and with the 2-line PRF, I think the Super P phenomena will be a thing of the past (although no guidance actually forbids it).  Sounds like you have a consistent record as an O-4.  What were your bottom line PRF Strats?  1/1 I/APZ and 2/7 Wg O-4s?  Only one eligible for your SR is kind of brutal.  Forces you to MLR which can be a crap shoot for non-shiny penny records.  


that’s correct on the bottom line.  1/1 and 2/7 Majs.    The number 1 Major being already selected for O-5.

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1 hour ago, bennynova said:


that’s correct on the bottom line.  1/1 and 2/7 Majs.    The number 1 Major being already selected for O-5.

Your SR didn’t do you any favors by including a Lt Col (s) in your pool for stratification.  I would not have racked you against a select.

That said, based on these numbers (and assuming no derogatory information) you'll likely be selected.   Those are real strats not “#2/45 IPs” type BS.

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3 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Your SR didn’t do you any favors by including a Lt Col (s) in your pool for stratification.  I would not have racked you against a select.

That said, based on these numbers (and assuming no derogatory information) you'll likely be selected.   Those are real strats not “#2/45 IPs” type BS.

For real...that's a shit move that doesn't make any sense at all for PRF/OPR.  Unless that 1/7 Maj's is a HPO they're sliding into GO-ranks some day.  Shit move that fucks over bros.

Also, retirement orders in hand so I don't have to deal with this sort of black magic fuckery anymore. Feels Good Man.

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Posted (edited)

Got mine back today.  After rushing an out-of-cycle OPR through so I'd have a #7/99 FGOs on my record, I got a P.

About what I was expecting, but damn did leadership burn a lot of manpower trying to give me hope leading up to it.

In the end, #5/10 eligibles with the standard "definitely promote" on the second line.  

I've already made my peace with being an iron major, I just wish leadership would be realistic about it instead of creating new hoops for me to jump through on the chance that I'll be the 1% of guys promoted APZ.

Edited by pawnman

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