Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[ViperMan]

1 hour ago, tac airlifter said:

Copy the idea.  Has this particular method of pressuring a dictator ever worked?  It didn’t on Saddam, and it didn’t on Ghadafi.  Or Milosevek.  It’s not working in Iran or N Korea.  When you target civilians for suffering, all it really does is hurt civilians.  If you have a counter example I’m game to hear it.  

Hmmm, lemme check. Ghadafi? Dead. Saddam? Dead. Slobodan Milosevic? Dead. So yeah, maybe sanctions don't "work", but if I was a dictator, it would seem to me that sanctions are a pit stop that the West puts me in for a few months or years before I wind up getting killed by someone they support. And to your comment that it's not working in Iran or NK, I will disagree by simply saying you're wrong - without evidence - because I can. Look at a map of SK vs NK when they're lit at night...I'd say they're working.

[FLEA]

If anyone knows what I'm talking about please inform:

I'm trying to find a CSIS video of a speech given by a former SECDEF (cant remember which one) where he talks about Iran, North Korea, and Russia, and how the sanctions work and dont work there.

Interestingly I think he said sanctions in Russia didn't work but I think that was before we had the full international support we do now. 

[tac airlifter]

8 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

Hmmm, lemme check. Ghadafi? Dead. Saddam? Dead. Slobodan Milosevic? Dead. So yeah, maybe sanctions don't "work", but if I was a dictator, it would seem to me that sanctions are a pit stop that the West puts me in for a few months or years before I wind up getting killed by someone they support. And to your comment that it's not working in Iran or NK, I will disagree by simply saying you're wrong - without evidence - because I can. Look at a map of SK vs NK when they're lit at night...I'd say they're working.

“Working” was defined as causing the populations to rise up.  I agree NK is dark at night.  Does that mean sanctions are working or does that mean civilians are miserable?

I get it.  Everyone disagrees with me, and that’s fine.  I offer a perspective for consideration so that we think carefully and choose to do things deliberately.  Laughing at hungry civilians is for pussies, not warriors.

[CaptainMorgan]

“Working” was defined as causing the populations to rise up.  I agree NK is dark at night.  Does that mean sanctions are working or does that mean civilians are miserable?
I get it.  Everyone disagrees with me, and that’s fine.  I offer a perspective for consideration so that we think carefully and choose to do things deliberately.  Laughing at hungry civilians is for pussies, not warriors.

Sorry, screw them. They made their bed by supporting Putin all these years.


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[hockeydork]

25 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

I get it.  Everyone disagrees with me, and that’s fine.  I offer a perspective for consideration so that we think carefully and choose to do things deliberately.  Laughing at hungry civilians is for pussies, not warriors.

I think there is merit to what you are getting at, which is does punishing a civilian population under the rule of an oppressive regime really have an affect on that regime, because that regime is oppressive and doesn't give a shit about its people to begin with, so it'll just run its own people into misery. That logic checks, but I think that is more applicable in a third world country like NK where the people are (and quite literally) left in the dark. Russia is not that place tho. These citizens have had access to western thoughts. It isn't a place where you are either a peasant or a soldier. They are civilized, and I think there BS meter may be significantly higher.

If we do nothing militarily, and nothing economically, you are basically affirming that autocrats can start redrawing borders. The amount of suffering that could come from this in the future is immeasurable. 

Also the meme is really more of a jab at the Kremlin's justification for invasion, the idea that because "this is how something once was", that's justification to always put it back that way. You were once my wife, but now were divorced, but because you were once my wife I can show up uninvited to dinner with your new husband any time I like.

Nobody wins in war, lives are destroyed on both sides forever. None of this is "funny", literally zero. But if you live the holier than thou life tho and have never laughed at any dark humor good for you, and that is an earnest even tho you just called me a P*ssy.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by hockeydork

[ViperMan]

8 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

“Working” was defined as causing the populations to rise up.  I agree NK is dark at night.  Does that mean sanctions are working or does that mean civilians are miserable?

I get it.  Everyone disagrees with me, and that’s fine.  I offer a perspective for consideration so that we think carefully and choose to do things deliberately.  Laughing at hungry civilians is for pussies, not warriors.

Ok that's cool, we're all working with our own set of terms. Yeah, so they haven't worked according to that metric. That said, sanctions never work overnight, and I think characterizing something that is supposed to work over time as a failure until the moment it works is an unfair judgement to make. I give NK a 0.0% (repeating, of course) chance of being a world-leading nation in the next 100 years under their current regime.

Civilians being miserable is a necessary but insufficient condition for sanctions to work in many cases - this one included. And right now, they are acceptable collateral damage. As are their bank accounts, iPhones, and pantries. I quite literally could not care. I hope it motivates them to ask the all-important question: "WTAF?"

And finally, anyone's attitude about what is and isn't funny or appropriate is a relative judgement. In light of millions of people being illegally and criminally displaced from their homes and being hungry, yeah, I think that would be a shitty thing to laugh at. Looking at some poor Russian who can no longer get cheese from Italy because his government is *ucked, is funny. And I will laugh at it.

[Prozac]

21 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

“Working” was defined as causing the populations to rise up.  I agree NK is dark at night.  Does that mean sanctions are working or does that mean civilians are miserable?

I get it.  Everyone disagrees with me, and that’s fine.  I offer a perspective for consideration so that we think carefully and choose to do things deliberately.  Laughing at hungry civilians is for pussies, not warriors.

I don’t entirely disagree with your position. I also worry that we may be pressing too hard & there’s no telling where this all ends up. The fact that I can’t see an end game that’s acceptable to all parties is what really worries me. I think we are in the most dangerous situation for global security that I’ve seen in my lifetime.
 

Here’s the thing though: Putin has played his hand and shown that he can never be trusted as a global partner. The only way Russia re-joins the civilized world is if and when he goes away. Of course we’re not going to come right out and say it, but it seems to me that our long game is forcing Putin from power one way or another. And we better believe there is far more action happening below the surface that we can’t see at the moment. There is certainly more here than meets the eye. 

[hockeydork]

1 hour ago, ecugringo said:

It is different but.....If Putin goes home he's done.  He cant just hang a Uey and pretend nothing happened.  And then what?  You get a global friendly Russia?  Or Putin 2.0?  I just feel like hes going to double down and go all in.

There is def not a crystal ball on this one, but If the choice is between a Putin 2.0 and Ukraine, and Putin 1.0 and no Ukraine, I'm taking Putin 2.0, at least we have a shot 2.0 will not be as much of a soviet nut case. He can double down, doesn't mean he still won't lose. 

[FLEA]

I think we are all putting way too much optimism that Putin is going away. Ive mentioned it before, he is unfathomably popular in Russia even with the ongoing shenanigans. Highly unlikely they deplace him. 

I believe what is more likely is the insurgency and domestic pressure force him to a compromise in about a year where Ukraine keeps its autonomy but has some significant losses as well. (probably Crimea and Donbas)

Putin isn't really a soviet nut case. The dude was remarkably pro capitalism in his mid years and was very open markets in the 90s. Sort of like mentioned in the Presidents thread, people are not a polarized subset of values. Putin embraced some of soviet culture but hardly all of it. That was discussed in the Jordan Peterson podcast posted earlier. 

[pawnman]

6 hours ago, hockeydork said:

I think there is merit to what you are getting at, which is does punishing a civilian population under the rule of an oppressive regime really have an affect on that regime, because that regime is oppressive and doesn't give a shit about its people to begin with, so it'll just run its own people into misery. That logic checks, but I think that is more applicable in a third world country like NK where the people are (and quite literally) left in the dark. Russia is not that place tho. These citizens have had access to western thoughts. It isn't a place where you are either a peasant or a soldier. They are civilized, and I think there BS meter may be significantly higher.

If we do nothing militarily, and nothing economically, you are basically affirming that autocrats can start redrawing borders. The amount of suffering that could come from this in the future is immeasurable. 

Also the meme is really more of a jab at the Kremlin's justification for invasion, the idea that because "this is how something once was", that's justification to always put it back that way. You were once my wife, but now were divorced, but because you were once my wife I can show up uninvited to dinner with your new husband any time I like.

Nobody wins in war, lives are destroyed on both sides forever. None of this is "funny", literally zero. But if you live the holier than thou life tho and have never laughed at any dark humor good for you, and that is an earnest even tho you just called me a P*ssy.

 

 

 

 

Who is doing the oppressing? It's not likely that Putin is visiting each dissident personally.

[Stoker]

The sanctions don't just have the effect of making Russians miserable. The Russian government, unlike the US, doesn't have the luxury of buying weapons on unlimited credit. They need revenue to pay and feed their soldiers, buy new guns, weaponry, etc. Sure, they still have oil revenues, but my guess is that with the sanctions, the Russians sell less gas this year than they did last year, and next year their actual production drops as specialized, irreplaceable equipment and people become scarce.

[DirkDiggler]

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/cipher-brief-expert-view/the-risks-facing-putin-and-his-inner-circle

  Interesting interview with a retired CIA officer regarding Putin's mindset and the possible risks he faces from his inner circle.

[DirkDiggler]

 

Good video of Russians cooking and ROI of our Javelin transfers.

[DirkDiggler]

Also, doesn't look like those homemade chicken coop cages on Russian tanks are proving all that effective.

[hockeydork]

15 hours ago, FLEA said:

I agree. And in that case, I fully support NATO sending other aid if they determine its not in their interest to send something that could threaten their own interests. 

 

Edit: Sounds like we are sending patriot batteries though!

Just hoping the Ukrainians can keep the Russians from flying with impunity with their shoulder fired/whatever mobile soviet SAMs they have left. I wish there was a mobile SAM system that could be supplied to them. The defensive nature isn't nearly as inflammatory. 

[FLEA]

2 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Just hoping the Ukrainians can keep the Russians from flying with impunity with their shoulder fired/whatever mobile soviet SAMs they have left. I wish there was a mobile SAM system that could be supplied to them. The defensive nature isn't nearly as inflammatory. 

I was actually wondering how much pants shitting the Russians would do if Turkey transferred their S400s to them to pick up the F-35 again. Its far fetched though. Turkey has been the least supportive NATO country for Ukraine and they really love those S400s. But man if only....

[hockeydork]

14 minutes ago, FLEA said:

I was actually wondering how much pants shitting the Russians would do if Turkey transferred their S400s to them to pick up the F-35 again. Its far fetched though. Turkey has been the least supportive NATO country for Ukraine and they really love those S400s. But man if only....

That would for sure be convenient. I wonder if this highlights an additional need in US capabilities as well. Seems we don't really have a system the sits in between a shoulder fired 40k stinger and a 3 million dollar patriot. 

[ClearedHot]

34 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

 

Good video of Russians cooking and ROI of our Javelin transfers.

This video is far more than watching a few Russians burn, it represents a paradigm shift in conflict not seen since PGMs in the first Gulf War.  Despite S400s and large numbers of Russian tactical SAMs the UAS' have reigned supreme in this conflict.  Ukraine's use of the Turkish TB2 has been masterful and well within the S400 ring that is supposed to handle low flying targets like cruise missiles.  Additionally, The Ukrainians have used large numbers of smaller systems to scout and provide actionable/targetable intelligence. 

ISIS and some other folks in the Middle East started the trend, rigging mortars to DJ drones and flying them over allied positions.  This video and a host of others out there illustrate how smaller UAS systems can cue Javelin teams and other anti-armor teams and allow them to mass at decisive locations.  In effect they have integrated the air land combined arms team at a much lower and highly effective level.  It appears the Russians have tried to do the same with far less success.  There was report this morning of a Ukrainian woman who knocked out a small Russian drone with...a jar of cucumbers, as it hovered outside her apartment window.

I hope those currently serving and our leadership is taking note, I guarantee others are taking learning this lesson and you can bet there will be even more emphasis on counter UAS capabilities. 

[FLEA]

21 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

This video is far more than watching a few Russians burn, it represents a paradigm shift in conflict not seen since PGMs in the first Gulf War.  Despite S400s and large numbers of Russian tactical SAMs the UAS' have reigned supreme in this conflict.  Ukraine's use of the Turkish TB2 has been masterful and well within the S400 ring that is supposed to handle low flying targets like cruise missiles.  Additionally, The Ukrainians have used large numbers of smaller systems to scout and provide actionable/targetable intelligence. 

ISIS and some other folks in the Middle East started the trend, rigging mortars to DJ drones and flying them over allied positions.  This video and a host of others out there illustrate how smaller UAS systems can cue Javelin teams and other anti-armor teams and allow them to mass at decisive locations.  In effect they have integrated the air land combined arms team at a much lower and highly effective level.  It appears the Russians have tried to do the same with far less success.  There was report this morning of a Ukrainian woman who knocked out a small Russian drone with...a jar of cucumbers, as it hovered outside her apartment window.

I hope those currently serving and our leadership is taking note, I guarantee others are taking learning this lesson and you can bet there will be even more emphasis on counter UAS capabilities. 

Wonder if our own leadership is watching this before phasing out the MQ-9. The drones Ukraine is using are very comparable arent they? I think they are using the Turkey predator equivalent. 

[viper154]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Wonder if our own leadership is watching this before phasing out the MQ-9. The drones Ukraine is using are very comparable arent they? I think they are using the Turkey predator equivalent. 

No. 

[FLEA]

26 minutes ago, viper154 said:

No. 

No to......

[TreeA10]

Twitter feed of mostly Russian and come Ukrainian military equipment destroyed or captured. The video of John Deere tractors dragging off T-80s is something I wasn't expecting.  

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/uaweapons?fbclid=IwAR3BlDhCf8vBzxNPmSF3dgpqzo2yjcKr6_VJDDt5Lz-JJhiFRf_hX37oPjY

[FLEA]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-07/antiwar-protests-in-russia-won-t-change-putin-s-mind-about-ukraine

Here's what I was saying about Russian protest not be indicative of Putin's popularity. Also some light discussion on how Russians feel about sanctions on the general population. 

[viper154]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

No to......

The drones being used in Ukraine compared to something like the -9. I appeared to jump to gun a little bit and while quickly reading your post I think I miss understood your point. On paper a comparison to the -1 seems fair somewhat fair. Compared to the -9 it’s rather inferior. 
 

Without going into to much detail, I would argue something like -9 wouldn’t be the tool for this job. Something smaller, less costly, and with a easier logistic foot print (much like what the Ukrainian military has) is much better suited.

In this war, you want to be mobile with a small foot print, not logistically challenging (fuel, parts, mx, etc) and simple infrastructure (runway requirements, data links, mobile command box)

As with any fixed wing asset, you are going to trade payload, range, and loiter abilities. 

[Lawman]

Twitter feed of mostly Russian and come Ukrainian military equipment destroyed or captured. The video of John Deere tractors dragging off T-80s is something I wasn't expecting.  
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/uaweapons?fbclid=IwAR3BlDhCf8vBzxNPmSF3dgpqzo2yjcKr6_VJDDt5Lz-JJhiFRf_hX37oPjY

I don’t think the Tank crews were either…

*crew comes back from scavenging fuel*
“where the hell is our god damned track!”


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