Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[uhhello]

6 hours ago, Prosuper said:

They probably fly the jet without the low observable paint to save money, when they do it most likely goes into the paint hanger for a week to correct that. We do the same with ours. Come out of major inspections then fly it to get the cobwebs out of it, then to paint hangar for the special coatings then green it up for real world taskings.

The same military that can't properly maintain tires on vehicles isn't going to be cutting edge with aircraft coatings and paint applications me thinks.  

[Danger41]

Just train that the RCS is a small as Putin’s dick and if it turns out to be the size of Gorbachev’s birthmark, all the better.

[gearhog]

Is Russia losing the war, or isn’t it? What are we paying for?

1 month ago:

Just now: 

[Prosuper]

On 11/6/2022 at 1:20 PM, uhhello said:

The same military that can't properly maintain tires on vehicles isn't going to be cutting edge with aircraft coatings and paint applications me thinks.  

Having a buddy who was a B-2 Pro Super and having him explain their processes , since the coatings were a gillion dollars a gallon which they have to scrape off to get access to components which required hazmat protocols. They did not paint until they knew they it was a good jet. Plus boomers better have their A game for AR's, scratching the paint could cause a mission canx.

[Biff_T]

26 minutes ago, Prosuper said:

Having a buddy who was a B-2 Pro Super and having him explain their processes , since the coatings were a gillion dollars a gallon which they have to scrape off to get access to components which required hazmat protocols. They did not paint until they knew they it was a good jet. Plus boomers better have their A game for AR's, scratching the paint could cause a mission canx.

The receptacle on the B-2 was a good size (sts).  The 117 was a smaller target, especially at night and EMCON 4. 

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, Prosuper said:

Having a buddy who was a B-2 Pro Super and having him explain their processes , since the coatings were a gillion dollars a gallon which they have to scrape off to get access to components which required hazmat protocols. They did not paint until they knew they it was a good jet. Plus boomers better have their A game for AR's, scratching the paint could cause a mission canx.

Got lots of crew chief friends still on 22's and 35s.  It's just part of the process now.  Every generation of 5th gen has gotten better at making it easier/more efficient but its still part of the process that needs to be done to get a green jet.  

[Clark Griswold]

Reprise of the Interceptor?  Good article on MiG-31s in Ukraine with interesting links

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-mig-31-foxhounds-proving-to-be-a-threat-to-ukrainian-aircraft

 

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Reprise of the Interceptor?  Good article on MiG-31s in Ukraine with interesting links

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-mig-31-foxhounds-proving-to-be-a-threat-to-ukrainian-aircraft

 

Man that first photo looks like something I had hanging in my bedroom that I made out of a pepsi can.  

[Lord Ratner]

On 11/8/2022 at 7:07 AM, torqued said:

Is Russia losing the war, or isn’t it? What are we paying for?

1 month ago:

Just now: 

Did you miss the reporting where the White House has been pressuring Ukraine to open the possibility of negotiations?

 

When your patron tells you to do something, you do it. And you do it with a smile.

[FourFans]

8 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Did you miss the reporting where the White House has been pressuring Ukraine to open the possibility of negotiations?

 

When your patron tells you to do something, you do it. And you do it with a smile.

Even when your patron is an 80 year old bumbling shell of a human?

[brwwg&b]

10 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Did you miss the reporting where the White House has been pressuring Ukraine to open the possibility of negotiations?

 

When your patron tells you to do something, you do it. And you do it with a smile.

While the US has been the largest patron, they aren't the only one...and Ukraine isn't our whore.

It's their country - we can carrot & stick all day to compel, but it's still their decision. Those measures are working, as Zelenskyy already (somewhat) walked it back - various reports of some willingness to enter talks with Russia - on Ukraine terms (possibly a post-Putin Russia).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/zelenskyy-talks-with-russia-possible-on-ukraines-terms-00065624

At this point, if Russia stops fighting, the war is over. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine is over (now or later). Aside from trying to provide off-ramps to Putin in an attempt to let him save face (won't work/matter), Ukraine going to negotiating table now is only beneficial to Russia.

[Lord Ratner]

15 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

Even when your patron is an 80 year old bumbling shell of a human?

Honestly I'd be shocked if he had anything at all to do with it. More likely the cabinet running the show.

[Lord Ratner]

13 hours ago, brwwg&b said:

While the US has been the largest patron, they aren't the only one...and Ukraine isn't our whore.

It's their country - we can carrot & stick all day to compel, but it's still their decision. Those measures are working, as Zelenskyy already (somewhat) walked it back - various reports of some willingness to enter talks with Russia - on Ukraine terms (possibly a post-Putin Russia).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/zelenskyy-talks-with-russia-possible-on-ukraines-terms-00065624

At this point, if Russia stops fighting, the war is over. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine is over (now or later). Aside from trying to provide off-ramps to Putin in an attempt to let him save face (won't work/matter), Ukraine going to negotiating table now is only beneficial to Russia.

I agree. Doesn't change the fact that Ukraine, despite whatever their desires may be, is subordinate to us in this war. There is no Ukraine victory without our weapons. I don't have to like it, but that's politics.

 

Saying "it's their decision" implies they can do whatever they want. False. If their choice is to lose, then yeah I guess they can do whatever. But they can't win without us, which means their choices are limited to those they can get the US to agree to. Politics and power.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Lord Ratner

[brwwg&b]

9 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I agree. Doesn't change the fact that Ukraine, despite whatever their desires may be, is subordinate to us in this war. There is no Ukraine victory without our weapons. I don't have to like it, but that's politics.

 

Saying "it's their decision" implies they can do whatever they want. False. If their choice is to lose, then yeah I guess they can do whatever. But they can't win without us, which means their choices are limited to those they can get the US to agree to. Politics and power.

Subordinate isn't the right wording. They were reliant on western supplied equipment and munitions. They've got lots of equipment now...munitions will continue to be a challenge. It doesn't make them a puppet for us, and doesn't mean we can tell them "go do this" and expect them to salute smartly and follow marching orders. They are compelled to consider (arguably, strongly consider) our recommendations....and then, it still is their decision.

The situation has changed enough that the Ukrainians may be inspired enough by battlefield victories to think they have more rope to play with - they can do whatever they want with that rope. It's for us to try to advise, so they don't end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We are certainly leveraging political tools to do so.

If we stopped handing over equipment and munitions today - it isn't a guarantee that the Ukrainians would lose (in the near term). However, they (and we) understand the importance of both building & rebuilding a western supplied military for them. They're playing the politics side of it pretty smartly as well...they aren't subservient, realize that US would suffer political blowback if we just walked away right now, and know that we can help them behind the scenes as well. This doesn't just easily simplify to "we are a big country and you are a little one" power plays (nor should it).

[brwwg&b]

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan highlights four "core elements of consensus" in the U.S. gov about Ukraine. (about halfway through, CTRL+F Ukraine)

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/11/11/press-gaggle-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-en-route-phnom-penh-cambodia/

TL;DR version:

1. It's Ukraine's decision when to go to the negotiating table.

2. Principles of a just peace are based on territorial and sovereign integrity (U.N. Charter).

3. Russia doubling down on annexation claims means they can't be a good faith negotiator.

4. U.S. approach remains the same - enable Ukraine to be in the best possible position on the battlefield.

"And one more big-ticket item.  So there’s kind of this sense of when is Ukraine going to negotiate.  Okay, ultimately, at a 30,000-foot level, Ukraine is the party of peace in this conflict, and Russia is the party of war.  Russia invaded Ukraine.  If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left, it would be the end of the war.  If Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine."

[Lord Ratner]

On 11/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, brwwg&b said:

It doesn't make them a puppet for us, and doesn't mean we can tell them "go do this" and expect them to salute smartly and follow marching orders. They are compelled to consider (arguably, strongly consider) our recommendations....and then, it still is their decision.

They decided to fight Russia instead of cave. There were only two branches from that point: lose, or get help from us. Now that they are on that path, until they decide to return to "lose," they are stuck doing what we say. They can find another source of support, but there aren't many options.  It's not fair, but it's reality. I hope we continue to support them, but that support comes with an "*"

On 11/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, brwwg&b said:

If we stopped handing over equipment and munitions today - it isn't a guarantee that the Ukrainians would lose (in the near term).

I don't think you realize how much more we are doing than just sending pallets of weapons. It is not through Ukrainian cleverness that so many high ranking Russians keep getting blown up.

 

When we sent them HIMARS, it came with the six month subscription to SiruisXM targeting. 

[brwwg&b]

43 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Now that they are on that path, until they decide to return to "lose," they are stuck doing what we say. They can find another source of support, but there aren't many options.

It isn't as black and white as you make it out. Like a teenager learning to drive under supervision, there comes a moment where you let them go drive on their own. Before you do, they might sneak out and take the car out on their own. The difference here being that we aren't going to go take back equipment or munitions which was gifted, if they decide they no longer need supervision

Realize that they have support (limited, sure) from many other nations from the US who have much more skin in the game when it comes to how this war settles.

43 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I don't think you realize how much more we are doing than just sending pallets of weapons.

I know that you don't know who you are talking to. I also know that intelligence support isn't a discussion fit for this forum.

edit: grammar

Edited November 14, 2022 by brwwg&b

[brwwg&b]

59 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

When we sent them HIMARS, it came with the six month subscription to SiruisXM targeting.

For shits & grins though - we are approaching six months of Ukraine having HIMARS.

[ClearedHot]

On 11/11/2022 at 7:43 AM, Clark Griswold said:

Reprise of the Interceptor?  Good article on MiG-31s in Ukraine with interesting links

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-mig-31-foxhounds-proving-to-be-a-threat-to-ukrainian-aircraft

 

What is the F-Pole at 60,000' and Mach 2 slinging an ICBM like A2A missile?

[Clark Griswold]

57 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

What is the F-Pole at 60,000' and Mach 2 slinging an ICBM like A2A missile?

Drop that telephone pole, count 2 Mississippi then maneuver I imagine... non-fighter pilot's opinion but the long range interceptor with a VLRAAM will be able to shape the fight by first look / shot if they enter the ring off the top rope coming down on a 4th gen opponent, 5th gen would be different due to less SA till the players are closer and the interceptors get a radar hit they can use

Just a DCS video of a 2 ship of 31s vs a 2 ship of Vipers... but being put on the defensive first as you close on the Foxhounds looks like a problem... again just a DCS video without all the other support assets that would assist this Viper two ship but to illustrate the problem of not getting the first shot

 

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, brwwg&b said:

I know that you don't know who you are talking to. I also know that intelligence support isn't a discussion fit for this forum.

Maybe you forgot your previous post?

Here:

On 11/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, brwwg&b said:

They were reliant on western supplied equipment and munitions.

And here:

On 11/12/2022 at 9:05 PM, brwwg&b said:

If we stopped handing over equipment and munitions today - it isn't a guarantee that the Ukrainians would lose (in the near term).

And now here:

11 hours ago, brwwg&b said:

The difference here being that we aren't going to go take back equipment or munitions which was gifted, if they decide they no longer need supervision

That's who I'm talking to, the person who said that. And those quotes indicate a very misguided belief that "equipment and munitions" are the primary factors in Ukraine's success. Yet you completely ignored "training and intelligence," which can be thought of as multipliers in this conflict. No, we can't easily take back our equipment and munitions, but if we take the Intel and support, you're now multiplying by zero, and the result will be obvious.

 

So you either don't know what you're talking about, or you're trying to exclude the "secret" parts by completely mis-characterizing the entire ground reality, which seems like a pointless endeavor.

 

I hope our support for Ukraine continues until the last Russian body is dragged back over their border. We have been given a tremendous opportunity to utterly decimate, the military and standing of one of the only credible geopolitical foes, and at an incredible discount. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their sovereignty, I see no problem with simultaneously fulfilling a major objective of ours.

But that doesn't change Ukraine's reality, and there is no victory without our continued support. The United States military is not the training wheels, it's the whole f'n bike.

 

[brwwg&b]

30 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

if we take the Intel and support, you're now multiplying by zero, and the result will be obvious.

You're asserting that Ukrainian military competency and capability (on their own) is zero. Which is blatantly incorrect.

31 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I hope our support for Ukraine continues until the last Russian body is dragged back over their border. We have been given a tremendous opportunity to utterly decimate, the military and standing of one of the only credible geopolitical foes, and at an incredible discount. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their sovereignty, I see no problem with simultaneously fulfilling a major objective of ours.

F yeah. Totally agree.

32 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

But that doesn't change Ukraine's reality, and there is no victory without our continued support. The United States military is not the training wheels, it's the whole f'n bike.

You're still overstating our role. Even if the US is the bike - Ukraine are the bicyclists. If the bike stops working or magically disappears - Ukraine are now the runners. Or maybe they have a scooter or motorcycle they jump on. It doesn't simplify to automatic defeat just because Uncle Sam decides to stop showing up (which, by the way...won't happen, so the entire discussion is moot).

 

[Beaker16]

Updated article: Ukrainian missile defense systems currently reported to be the kinetic effects.  

https://apnews.com/article/225dd98252e778bdc678f8596962833c

____

Initial post: Russian missiles impacted in Poland, killing two. If confirmed, interested to see the response.

https://apnews.com/article/9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Chef16
New article

[brwwg&b]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Reports that the Polish prime minister is calling emergency meetings

[ClearedHot]

Will Russia deny...would serve them best to fess up and apologize immediately before the hawks start chanting Article 5.