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The Iran thread

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I thought they reported he was killed in Iran War 1. Good to see him make a cameo in Iran War 2.

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  • RegularJoe
    RegularJoe

  • I propose a toast:  To the incompetence of Iranian aviation.  Hear, hear! And  on a positive note, congrats to President Raisi: he quit smoking yesterday!

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On 7/10/2026 at 9:37 AM, Lord Ratner said:

I'm a simple man. I just judge a society by what they say and do. And in ~75 years I have yet to see an Israeli street rally calling for death to the Muslims. I haven't heard the orgasmic phone calls of young Jewish men telling their parents they had raped and slaughtered Muslim women and children.

I know you hate when I show up - this is your space, I get it. Here’s some light reading that refutes your main claims that I’m sure you’d like to be aware of. Next time, you can use Google to find things like this yourself.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/14/israel-nationalists-jerusalem-day-march-anniversary-protest

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/10/israeli-soldiers-breaking-ranks-gaza-civilians-human-shields

Again, sorry to be a drag.

45 minutes ago, Negat0ry said:

I know you hate when I show up - this is your space, I get it. Here’s some light reading that refutes your main claims that I’m sure you’d like to be aware of. Next time, you can use Google to find things like this yourself.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/14/israel-nationalists-jerusalem-day-march-anniversary-protest

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/10/israeli-soldiers-breaking-ranks-gaza-civilians-human-shields

Again, sorry to be a drag.

First article: Garbage. The headline doesn't match any of the actual quotes in the article. The actual quotes are much more boring. The best you have is "a few Jews at a rally said evil things." Now, if the minister with the flag had said something like "we will kill any Palestinian that prevents us from retaking the Temple Mount" then you might have something. But to try to compare this to even the now-boring "from the river to the sea" is idiotic.

Second article:

“There’s no such thing as ‘means, intent and ability’ in Gaza,” Vilk says. “No soldier ever mentions ‘means, intent, and ability’. It’s just: a suspicion of walking where it’s not allowed. A man aged between 20 and 40.”

Nonsense. The article pretends that there was no enemy at all. Just a bunch of refugees looking for food. There's tons of footage of Hamas fighters engaging the IDF. If their repeated, documented use of civilians and civilian disguises made the IDF paranoid and trigger happy, that's a bummer, but entirely predictable.

The US soldiers killed a lot of unarmed Germans as we took Europe from the Nazis. Yet no one is stupid enough (except for Tucker Carlson) to claim the allies were the bad guys.

Welcome to war. Maybe your military service was so blessedly uneventful that you never saw or heard these very human things happen. Your general philosophy does usually reek of ignorant utopianism.

It still doesn't make it even remotely difficult to know who the bad guys are in this situation.

6 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

First article: Garbage. The headline doesn't match any of the actual quotes in the article. The actual quotes are much more boring. The best you have is "a few Jews at a rally said evil things."

What do you mean it doesn’t match the headline.. it’s literally in the first paragraph:

“Israeli nationalists chanted “death to the Arabs”, “may your villages burn” and “Gaza is a graveyard” in a state-sponsored march through Jerusalem to mark the anniversary of the city’s capture and annexation.”

We’re not the ones that made up the idiotic standard that societies should be judged by what people chant at random protests.. that was you.. a week ago:

“And in ~75 years I have yet to see an Israeli street rally calling for death to the Muslims.”

Well now you have seen one. And since we’re playing your stupid game, this one matters just as much as when gazans do it if you care at all (we know you don’t) about logical consistency. But I look forward to learning how this is totally different, or fake news, or something..

Edited by Pooter

Oh and how’s that new round of bombing coming along? Oh right not a single thing has materially improved from a strategic perspective

lmk when we bomb Kharg island and it fixes everything

Edited by Pooter

So does the WPA counter restart?

Edited by 17D_guy

1 hour ago, 17D_guy said:

So does the WPA counter restart?

That would be about as pedantic as the rest of this thread.

On 7/16/2026 at 9:43 PM, Pooter said:

Oh and how’s that new round of bombing coming along? Oh right not a single thing has materially improved from a strategic perspective

lmk when we bomb Kharg island and it fixes everything

For us or them? Their 100% neutralized ballistic missile capability just managed to hit some CLUs. So on the one hand at least it wasn't our invaluable radars or tankers this time and we know for a fact they have 2 less missiles now so you could say things are improving. On the other hand it turns out they still have ballistic missiles and that's sort of awkward.

There's also vids of multiple patroit interceptors missing at least 2 ballistic missiles.

Edited by No One

This just in, No One asserts an objective exists that never did (100% destruction of BM capability) and he’s aghast that Patriots don’t have a 1.0 pK. Oh no, it’s all over folks!

Is going full retard your professional job, or just a hobby?

16 hours ago, busdriver said:

That would be about as pedantic as the rest of this thread.

Legit wonder. I shall Claude it as that's about as reliable. Then Google. Then I'll kill a chicken and look at the pattern of bones and blood for a final conclusion.

4 hours ago, brabus said:

This just in, No One asserts an objective exists that never did (100% destruction of BM capability) and he’s aghast that Patriots don’t have a 1.0 pK. Oh no, it’s all over folks!

Is going full retard your professional job, or just a hobby?

Ok so i rounded slightly, sue me. The figure provided was 90%.

On 4/8/2026 at 7:38 AM, ClearedHot said:

Nah - I will compare it to the plan that destroyed their Air Force, their Navy and 90% of their ballistic missile production capability.

But to answer your question, it's a hobby. I leave the job of full retard to our president.

Looks like 2 KIA and 1 MIA unfortunately.

Edited by No One

2 hours ago, No One said:

Ok so i rounded slightly, sue me. The figure provided was 90%.

But to answer your question, it's a hobby. I leave the job of full retard to our president.

Looks like 2 KIA and 1 MIA unfortunately.

Are they producing new ballistic missiles?

I'm just reading what you quoted.

2 hours ago, No One said:

I thought their military was gone?

20 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

I thought their military was gone?

Yeah we wrecked all the parts that didn’t matter in the first place but don’t tell the neocon war hawks that. They just spent the last two months circlejerking about how we obliterated a navy that was totally irrelevant and an Air Force of nothing but museum pieces.

Turns out we never made much of a dent in the actual ballistic missile inventory because bombing cave entrances doesn’t destroy anything.. it just denies access to them temporarily.

Anyone with half a brain cell knew from the outset that the TBM threat and ability to close the strait were always the two crucial things forming the basis for Iran’s regional power projection. Those both remain intact and will not be solved by renewed bombing.

We’re now in the “more cowbell” phase of this dumb war where we’re just doing stuff that already didn’t work, with no clear end in sight. It’s just so sad no one predicted this would devolve into a directionless boondoggle

...says all the people that don't currently work in the Strat Division...

noted

It never ceases to amaze me how much humans will run their mouths on things they have zero actual knowledge on. But, I guess egos are going to ego.

When you have zero coherent argument in support of this war:

IMG_2820.jpeg

I don’t know what clearances you have or don’t have. But I do know from your long and distinguished history of laughably incorrect, half baked posts that you do in fact have zero clue on the topic of this thread. I’m sure there’s things you’re smart on and well informed on, but this ain’t it.

43 minutes ago, brabus said:

I don’t know what clearances you have or don’t have. But I do know from your long and distinguished history of laughably incorrect, half baked posts that you do in fact have zero clue on the topic of this thread. I’m sure there’s things you’re smart on and well informed on, but this ain’t it.

Would love to hear what takes of mine pertaining to this war are “laughably incorrect”

Is it, in no particular order:

-That Israel roped us into this

-Our own DNI said Iran wasn’t making a nuke prior to the start of the war

-Our destruction of a non-factor navy and Air Force doesn’t amount to a strategic win

-Iran was never in a weak negotiating position which is why we signed a deal favorable to them

-Iran’s TBM stockpile is mostly intact and the primary tool for their power projection

-The blockade of their blockade didn’t do shit

-Bombing cave entrances in a country of 90 million people the size of the entire eastern US didn’t (and won't currently) accomplish shit

-We did not effect regime change and in fact ended up with a more hardline one

-The people did not rise up

-We have depleted our interceptor and SOW munitions to an alarming level that will take years to replace

-We are objectively on the back foot in other AORs that had their resources poached for this boondoggle

-Trump’s apocalyptic and incoherent messaging was strategically damaging and galvanized the Iranian public against us

-We fell into an escalation trap that we now cannot get out of

-Still don’t have the nuke dust

-Constant admin goalpost shifting about the objectives where now just getting the strait back open and un-tolled would be considered a win

There ya go. Feel free to address any of them specifically and I’ll respond with well sourced arguments. But this hiding behind “you don’t know what you’re talking about” or “you’d know the real story if you were in the strat division vault” is just pathetic BS. We can all see the shitshow unfolding with our own eyes.

Edited by Pooter

agree with pooter on this. a stupid war that was not in our interest and now we are stuck in another ME conflict. smdh

On 7/19/2026 at 3:36 PM, Pooter said:

Would love to hear what takes of mine pertaining to this war are “laughably incorrect”

Is it, in no particular order:

-That Israel roped us into this

Popular left talking point that’s wrong. Coordinating with an ally does not equal “roped in.” We are in it for self-interest, which shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. The former can be your opinion, but it’s not a fact.

-Our own DNI said Iran wasn’t making a nuke prior to the start of the war

She said that in Mar 2025, a year before the war started. Weird, things changed and new info became available over a year’s time. So you’re correct in that she said it, but you’re wrong to lean on that statement and act as if it is accurate in 2026.

-Our destruction of a non-factor navy and Air Force doesn’t amount to a strategic win

It’s certainly a strategic win for the region’s security, our ability to wage war in the region, affects economies including global oil, etc. If you’re simply saying it’s not the same strategic win level as say, China ceasing to exist, then sure, nice profound discovery there Sherlock.

-Iran was never in a weak negotiating position which is why we signed a deal favorable to them

We didn’t sign a deal, so this statement is flat out wrong.

-Iran’s TBM stockpile is mostly intact and the primary tool for their power projection

Wrong on “mostly intact,” correct on “primary tool.”

-The blockade of their blockade didn’t do shit

The first statement in this list that I generally agree with. It did something, but it was not nearly as effective as they wanted (that’s my opinion).

-Bombing cave entrances in a country of 90 million people the size of the entire eastern US didn’t (and won't currently) accomplish shit

Wrong. And to be honest, I had this same feeling initially, but I learned a few things and blue TTP evolved to make this an effective tactic.

-We did not effect regime change and in fact ended up with a more hardline one

Agree on not effecting “effective” regime change, but we did not end up with a more hardline one. What you’re seeing is the hardline IRGC operating autonomously and the civ gov can’t control them. Bottom line, this point was never going anywhere without the people stepping up, and so far they haven’t to a meaningful degree. That said, killing several assholes wasn’t a bad thing, even if it wasn’t the strategic silver bullet the admin wanted it to be.

-The people did not rise up

True, I hope for their sake they do at some point.

-We have depleted our interceptor and SOW munitions to an alarming level that will take years to replace

Your opinion supported by the media’s talking points. Also, are we not to use our munitions in war? Yeah of course we’ve used a shitload, that’s how it works. But, I don’t recommend jumping on the latest and greatest “everyone be super scared and worried about X” bandwagon the media put outs weekly.

-We are objectively on the back foot in other AORs that had their resources poached for this boondoggle

Are we? I’m sure you’ll respond with regurgitated talking points about PACOM. First – have to fight the war at hand, second – meh, I don’t see it as “on the back foot,” certainly reduced options, but not “totally fucked!” like many uninformed naturally gravitate to. Why? Because there’s so much more to PACOM than fighter jets, GBU-31s, and tankers…and that’s before we even talk about actual ML/MDCOA and which COAs we’d actually execute (surprise, they don’t all require a shitload of fighters, bombers, and tankers).

-Trump’s apocalyptic and incoherent messaging was strategically damaging and galvanized the Iranian public against us

Haha, dude I agree with your first words, but when you said “Iranian public” – well that’s hysterical. Which IRGC propaganda source did you read the morning you made this post?

-We fell into an escalation trap that we now cannot get out of

Until we go for thousands of boots on the ground for “nation building” whatever quagmire, this is a weak position. But that said, this is just your opinion and mine, which is fine.

-Still don’t have the nuke dust

And you have firsthand knowledge of nuclear-related shit in Iran that comes from somewhere other than media? I know you don’t, it’s a rhetorical question.

-Constant admin goalpost shifting about the objectives where now just getting the strait back open and un-tolled would be considered a win

I agree with this as a general statement. But, it could use some refining in the sense that some objectives have been very defined and unchanging, but certainly there have been others added with shifting goalposts.

There ya go. Feel free to address any of them specifically and I’ll respond with well sourced arguments. But this hiding behind “you don’t know what you’re talking about” or “you’d know the real story if you were in the strat division vault” is just pathetic BS. We can all see the shitshow unfolding with our own eyes.

And while I’ve fell for it again, I’d like to highlight your MO is posting “fight me” lists like this, they get responded to, it doesn’t go how you thought it’d go, so you’ll let another few pages build, and then once again pretend all of your opinions (many masquerading as “fact”) haven’t been addressed and you’ll demand responses. I’m also not hiding behind anything, but your extreme arrogance is on display when you continue to project hubris regarding topics that are obviously surrounded in tons of classified information (much of it very compartmentalized) and act like that doesn’t matter and surely your internet research has provided you a completely accurate and well-informed view of what has or hasn’t happened. You also appear to have little knowledge of the info ops world. If you did have it, and you had more breath of experience in the SAP/STO/ACCM “world,” you’d know how much is out there and you’d be humble enough to “know you don’t know” about a lot. Those who think that’s bullshit are ones who haven’t worked enough in that world to know how much is out there, and therefore know how much they are not privy to (and manage their egos to be cool with that).

12 hours ago, brabus said:

I’d like to highlight your MO is posting “fight me” lists like this, they get responded to, it doesn’t go how you thought it’d go

No sorry it went pretty much exactly how I thought it would go.

-50% deflection/appeals to "media narrative" or "librul media"

-30% arguments that genuinely make no sense

-10% semantic technicalities

-10% reluctant agreement

-and a bonus cherry on top of a little more security clearance dick measuring

But I will say one thing positive thing. Bravo on the formatting. This is wayyy better than our norm here of blowing up the thread with mega posts that have a dozen sub quotes and responses. Collapsible quote format is genius.

You're right though I do tend to post and ghost here because sometimes the counterarguments are just pedantic and uninteresting or dishonest it's to the point I don't think they merit much of a response. As an example:

12 hours ago, brabus said:

-Our own DNI said Iran wasn’t making a nuke prior to the start of the war

She said that in Mar 2025, a year before the war started. Weird, things changed and new info became available over a year’s time. So you’re correct in that she said it, but you’re wrong to lean on that statement and act as if it is accurate in 2026.

Am I taking crazy pills or was midnight hammer not chapter 1 in this whole stupid story? Lets review. Midnight hammer happened in June of 2025. 3 months after that statement. Not a year. After that operation we claimed we "obliterated" their nuclear program. So you're going to look at me with a straight face and say that after we assessed they weren't building a nuke, and then we subsequently "obliterated" the nuke they WEREN'T building... "things changed" ... and 9 months after that not only are building a nuke but the threat was even more imminent than before we obliterated the program?

And then how do you square that argument with this one:

12 hours ago, brabus said:

-We did not effect regime change and in fact ended up with a more hardline one

Agree on not effecting “effective” regime change, but we did not end up with a more hardline one.

So they weren't building a nuke.. then we attacked them a whole bunch.. and "things changed" and now they are building a nuke.. but don't worry this isn't a more hardline regime. Please make it make sense.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

And then I just had to include this one. Reminds me of when somebody in here claimed the strait wasn't closed because like 5% of normal traffic was making it through. Just straight up semantic bs completely dodging the core argument.

12 hours ago, brabus said:

-Iran was never in a weak negotiating position which is why we signed a deal favorable to them

We didn’t sign a deal, so this statement is flat out wrong.

okay you got me dude, we signed a dogshit Memorandum of Understanding, not a dogshit deal.

..that trump got promptly ripped for by all sides including the zionists because of how comically lopsided and poorly worded it was in Iran's favor.

Is nitpicking "deal" vs. "memo" really getting to the crux of the issue here? Hmmm lemme see if I can rephrase: why was the MEMO we signed so favorable to Iran? Could that possibly shed some light on our relative negotiating positions at the time?

I'll leave you to chew on those two first, and maybe if we can take the semantic blinders off and genuinely engage with arguments in a meaningful way we can get to items further down the list.

Edited by Pooter

Supporting this quagmire feels like peak sports team style support for your preferred political side.

I voted for Trump all three times and I am still thankful to this day that Kamala Harris is not the president. But there has been plenty to criticize the Trump admin about this term as well, the Iran shit show being chief among them.

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