In AFSOC, IDE is not required for selection on the EAGLE list but the vast majority of command hires are IDE in-res graduates. Like, 99%.
Bode, if command is an itch you have to scratch professionally then I encourage you to attend IDE and make senior raters aware you are interested in command. Command lists are the first cut, but hiring is always a smaller group. As others have mentioned, my experience is decisions have zero transparency and are entirely the luck of who chooses you. Control what you can control: your pedigree and your attitude.
Ops command seems more competitive, but perhaps it’s because there are fewer.
Good luck!