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Honestly fairly low based mostly on age, secondly on non-T38. A lot of fighter guys are bailing from AD in that age range and it's unlikely a squadron would hire a non-fighter guy over current/qualified guys. But, it never hurts to go visit a unit, talk to the dudes/the CC and see what they say. Every unit is different, in a different manning situation ,etc.

So no matter what really happened she lied? What a bizarre thing to write. Really no matter what happened if an O-6 is screwing an E-3 the O-6 deserves to be fired whether there is consent or not.

Oh wow, 2009-2011 good to see you again! Everything old is new again!

...but who in their right mind would throw away the opportunity to fly the T-38 when the drop pool increases? I am not the type of dude to bag on the T-1, but I’m SURE it’s not nearly as fun or rewarding to fly. Don’t listen to people who tell you to track T-1 regardless of intent...you will most likely regret it in the future and spend every waking moment telling your friends/family how you could have gone T-38 if you wanted but chose not to even though you are a young Bob Hoover.

He could also get an E3 out of T-1s. And he doesn't know what he doesn't know, his mind could change significantly once actually flying in the military. 38s keeps all doors open, T-1s closes doors. It's a no brainer to do enjppt if possible and figure your wishes out there.

It did. A later commander who thought this guy was good had it expunged from his record.

Considering the guy was kicked out of SOS for cheating...among many other shady things as a CGO...color me not surprised at the charges. He just finally got caught.

Fly your hardest. Trim until your thumb has a hole in the glove. Be a good dude. Study your ass off. Follow this recipe and you’ll have your choice as to what you’ll get to fly, regardless of which method of UPT or ENJJPT you go through. The good news for you is that EVERY damn community out there is hurting for pilots, so if you do these things, you’ll be able to take all of the considerations from other threads into account when you make your choice.

I am/was at the AC-130 schoolhouse at Cannon. The proportion of T-38/T-1 folks we get is about equal. QED: doesn't matter. My advice would be to go ENJJPT; more options if you change your mind. As for AFSOC vs others: we're awesome, but there are a lot of other awesome opportunities. I will not discourage you from MC-130s. They do a ton of great stuff, and I LOVE low-level. We don't do that. We do kill things. All the things. I've said it before: size of community + taskings = we kill more than anyone else. But that's not everything to everyone. Evaluate your priorities, but in the meantime put in for ENJJPT. Nothing to lose from my perspective if you don't suck. (anyone saying blah blah RPA: fuck off, you get my point) Fighters are awesome. We don't get to go inverted single seat and rage. If it's the raw pilotage you crave, ACC is the way to go.

Regardless of the flavor of pilot training, try to end up in the T-38. If you go to Sheppard, this obviously happens automatically. Regarding ENJJPT vs SUPT for AFSOC follow- on: I wouldn’t focus on that aspect exclusively at this point because either one can take you to that promise land.

Yes. Everyone has different circumstances resulting in different calculations.

The CC pool?

Currently the AFSOC community (CV-22s at least) wants -38 grads over T-1 guys (shh, don’t tell them that). Apparently they’ve washed out quite a few of them in CV-22 initial qual over the last year. Reason they prefer -38 grads is because of their greater exposure to tactical flying/mindset in their syllabi (both SUPT/ENJJPT). Edit: As to the OP’s comment about ENJJPT dudes being better pilots...the academy guys that get those slots are better at playing the game/checking the squares to be more competitive. They’ll make great HPOs one day, but definitely doesn’t translate into being a better stick and rudder pilot. Not a slight towards ENJJPT guys by any means, but the dudes who go -38s in SUPT earned their -38 slot by actually proving themselves in an airplane. Just food for thought. If you have the opportunity to go ENJJPT however, I’d take it.

Surprised at how many people don’t understand this.

Do what you can to get a true picture of what the MC-130 does if you're going vector hard towards it. In no way am I trying to steer you way from it, but my impression of what the MC-130H did when I was in your position was nothing but terrain following low level, threat penetration, high speed airdrop of clandestine forces, and that seemed pretty cool to me. Turns out, although those may be capabilities, they're rarely exercised and 95% of the time the MCs aren't doing anything a slick -130 doesn't do (excluding HAR/TAR as my impression is the crews don't consider it especially enjoyable). There's nothing wrong with "slick missions", but it may not be what you expect from the MCs. I had a strong desire to end up in MCs initially, but by dumb luck ended up elsewhere in AFSOC and wouldn't have taken an offer to cross-train into MCs after I had seen their reality from up close. Again, not to discourage you. If that's what you want, go for it. Just do what you can to be sure you understand what you're working towards.

You just described what several AFSOC and ACC assets do during the current fight...so...good luck. Go ENJJPT - Flying 38s was fun, you still have a decent array of options for assignments, and Wichita Falls seems to be the best UPT base out of all of them (location-wise and the local town is better than the other options). I say all this as a guy who didn't go there. Lastly, its fine to think about what you think you want to fly, but keep an open mind. Talk to your IPs as you go through UPT - dismiss those who tell you "the other guys" are assholes, suck, mission is lame, etc...they have no idea what they're talking about if they never flew it. If you have a bunch of non-fighter IPs, seek out fighter guys for perspective. Do the opposite as well. You might stay steadfast on the AFSOC idea, but you may also surprise yourself at what you end up putting on a dream sheet 2 years from now.

ENJJPT made me a navigator. Avoid like the plague. YMMV.

some attempts at plotting track/drop probability