I can tell you (at least roughly) how it's going to play out for the MAF year group(s)--like the one that's currently graduating--which get shorted for bodies, in favor of the CAF:
- They'll all start their flying careers being really busy, flying a bunch and getting sq jobs folks in prior year groups would never have gotten so early
- Way too early in their careers, the bright and shiny types will be identified, and will quickly join the protected class which rarely flies or deploys/is set up for the string of jobs/assignments that will make them really promotable. The next tier down--the ones not on the leadership track, but who are competent/dependable--will get crushed with all the important, yet non-sexy (read hardship) deployments & home station jobs. The middle of the packers--good flyers, but not great leaders/staff types--will fly their arses off and also get crushed with deployments. Those (at least according to AF perceptions) who are at the bottom of the pack will likely enjoy a level of job security that in prior years they never would have had. That is, until such time that they get RIFd--because, of course, the AF needs to retain its critically manned 11Fs (even though in this year group the 11Fs will be overmanned relative to 11Ms/others).
- About 10 years from now, the bright and shinies (the ones who bother to stay on AD) will be in IDE & will already be largely disconnected from ground truths in the mobility community. The second-tier & middle of the road guys--if the civil sector is hiring--will get out in droves. The bottom of the pack folks will likely stay in.
- 20 years from now, the bright and shinies will still be bright and shiny, and more importantly will have had careers that in no way reflect the experiences of the masses. The second-tier and middle of the road folks will all be retired, or--at best--will still be on AD, but enjoying cush jobs (the only kinds of jobs that could entice them to stay in). The bottom dwellers who survived being passed over/RIFs/etc. will still be on AD, too. They'll be the middle managers.
The O-6 and above MAF leaders will have some really awesome ideas, after having spent so much time in schools/as execs/on staffs. Problem is, their middle managers--the passed-over O-4 and O-5 types--will almost exclusively be the middle of the roaders and bottom dwellers of yesteryear. Those executing the missions will almost exclusively be folks with less than 10 years rated service--i.e., folks who haven't yet had the opportunity to punch.
In sum, we'll have a whole bunch of good idea generators, but lack adequate numbers of competent people to put those ideas (whether good--or more likely good-sounding but questionable) into action.
Funny. This situation I describe twenty years from now kinda sounds like where the MAF is today: out of touch O-6 and above types, a razor-thin slice of competent O4s and O-5s trying to keep the ship afloat, and a bunch of junior dudes who are 1) eyeing life outside of AD, and 2) unimpressed by the AF clownshow. Problem is, ten years ago, we had the "good fortune" of 9/11, the Great Recession, and FAA rule changes to encourage folks to remain on AD. Consequently, we were able to retain at least a degree of talent. Barring another catastrophe, I don't see the Air Force future as being quite so rosy for the current crop of recent MAF SUPT graduates. The MAF will be even more broken, but at least there'll be enough CAF bubbas to fill the AF's senior leadership roles, going forward. So we'll have that going for us.
TT