I got an e-mail the other day about this. The attachment is pretty long and in-depth, so I didn't glean too much from it (although I know enough about statistics to know that you can get them to back up almost any hypothesis), but the originator of the e-mail had this to say:
"It seems like AFPC doesn't always show us their manning cards, but fortune favors the bold. Attached is an analysis that someone took some time compiling. It definitely puts to rest some of the WOMs we've been hearing, so take a look at your leisure. Here's a Cliff Notes version if you want a quick snapshot:
The overall Aviator Retention Pay (ARP) so far is 68%; however, if you dig through the tables, Fighter take rate last year was 59% and this year is 62%. Now, if you look at the number of eligible fighter pilots, it is 211 with 131 takers. I don't think this number includes those who are getting out (eligible until they drop their paperwork for Palace Chase, 7-day opt or 3-day Deployment opt). Taking that into account would drop that percentage to a more realistic number.
Overall fighter pilot loss for FY13 (up to 30 Sept 13) is 59%. Out of 461 eligible, 276 got out. Now, take the original 131 takers of the bonus and divide that by 461 (most eligible to get out also are eligible to take the bonus assuming they are on a 10 yr pilot training commitment). The more accurate bonus take rate is about 28%.
Since 2011 our continuation rate is dropping as well as our average active rated service. Basically, 60% are getting out, only 28% are taking the bonus and our overall continuation rate is dropping. So, this paper validates that 11F manning will continue to be a problem for AFPC and that the increased bonus is not meeting their intent. Remember, AFPC wanted a 65% take rate for the bonus, and is not achieving near that number of fighter pilots.
Something will have to give and something has to change. What that is, who knows...your guess is as good as mine. Can we really sustain our current fighter force with 60% getting out??
Please share this with the bros as you see fit. I hope my queepery gives ya'll some SA on what our career field is facing."
I'll post the actual document once I figure out how. the internet is hard.