Liquid, I agree with most of what you say. Most of those who are promoted deserve it and do a great job...most meaning as little as one promotee better than 50%. I understand that we can't promote everyone...even if 100% of those up for promotion were sh*t hot, but there was only a 90% promotion opportunity, 10% of those sh*t hot officers would be denied promotion. Got it.
There is some consistency in your posts that actually relates to what we are talking about here...and it is no secret. YOU the individual don't get promoted, your records do. So, yes, the bottom 50% are easy to identify if you are using criteria like AAD, PME, etc to select them. Without ever looking at one single OPR, I could probably predict with accuracy who was going to get promoted on this last Majors board if you just give me information on PME/AAD, in-res/corr completion alone. The stats don't lie. Don't tell me they weren't racked and stacked mainly based on AAD completion. Job performance? Really, we had IPs and EPs (presumably experts at their jobs) shown the door. Please tell me those dirtbag officers weren't out there training and evaluating our rated force. Ok, I know they weren't dirtbags...I knew several of them. They were some of the most experienced aviators in the squadron. What did they all have in common? BAC+ or less. I know they were racked and stacked based on that...I witnessed the process. Clean kill? Depends on how you look at it. I can't imagine any other flying organization in the world who would pick the guy with the AAD in cultural studies over the experienced IP/EP...but thats just me. Believe me, AAD does not make the officer. It just means in a lot of cases, those guys took themselves off the flying schedule or a TDY to finish that Masters. Sure, probably just in my small corner of the world, but it happened too often to be just something happening in my squadron. Certainly someone else out there not in my squadron has seen the same things.
My real point is that the record does not always accurately describe a great leader....they look like a great leader because of a great writer. Inversely, the poor records don't mean a poor leader...just a bad writer...and most likely written by the member anyway. In 15 years of service, I had a rater write exactly 3 of my many OPRs. I wrote the rest. That is a problem in our Air Force.
I can list many instances where our "top" strat officers on paper are really less than stellar in real life...like the one who shows for work at 0900, takes a 2 hour lunch with wife and family, races for the door at 1630 (or before to avoid retreat), avoids the schedulers phone call for that weekend mission because he has to take the kids to Legoland or finish a Master's paper (not on leave by the way), or the guy who manages to avoid deployments and even pulled strings to get a staff job to get out of one after being identified on the short list for that iTDY. Their records look spectacular, and some of them are "good dudes," but they hardly fit the model of quality "leadership" (IMHO). They just managed to do a couple of pretty good things in the past...so that plus an AAD completed 5 years ago makes them a better leader. Got it. Tell me where the mission first mentality is? The ones I know that think mission first are exactly the ones taking those weekend missions and not doing the Masters papers...they also aren't getting promoted.
I think that is where the arguments about OPRs and the promotion process are coming from. We see it at our level...promotion boards do not see it...and realistically can't see it. So, we need to be more accurate in those "records" that seem to be so important. Our OPR system is so inflated because we so don't want to hurt anyone's feelings that even the obviously bottom 1% guy who is passed over for promotion is surprised he/she didn't get promoted.