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How is that possible?

Yeah, I suspect that Trump is as much of gambler in military action as Putin is and the incredible success of Midnight Hammer, Maduro raid, etc… convinced him it was time for a trifecta. That is a quick decisive powerful military operation with outsized results and low costs in blood and treasure, not implying his advisers or an ally country lied or misled him but we gambled that the regime was more fragile and more disliked than is apparently the truth. Not saying a majority of Iranians want theocracy but enough do to keep that regime afloat, enough are willing to serve in the IRGC, the Basij, police and the conventional military forces to support the clerical regime and all of its odious activities. I’m not looking for the US to get into major ground war, occupation and inevitable COIN mission but unless we get very lucky and somehow take out thousands of the leaders and enforcers of the revolutionary Islamic regime and simultaneously cause/support an uprising that is acceptable (secular military dictatorship is fine initially), even a severely wounded Iranian regime that survives is not going to be an optimal outcome, maybe acceptable in the short term long term I suspect not. It seems the idea of ground war is in the zeitgeist The War ZoneWhat Boots On The Ground In Iran Could Entail, According...Joseph Votel offers insights on securing Iran's uranium, seizing Kharg Island, dwindling stocks of missile interceptors, and how long Epic Fury will last.I think in the big picture, this is another test like Ukraine is for the West. We just quit the mission in Afghanistan but the mission was not possible, to change their society into something we wanted, we should have accepted that earlier and come to some kind of settlement that would have not led to our ignominious departure. Ukraine is still in the fight but approaching an inevitable and I would say acceptable in the short term pause in the conflict. If we recognize that and prepare we (the West) can win the next inevitable aggression of Russia. Iran is the chance to defeat jihadism for a second time (first was Islamic State) and much more meaningfully the project of Islamic aggression. Israel must defeat Hamas and eventually Hezbollah, it is a cultural, religious and political phenomenon that can not be allowed to succeed. There are other Islamic governments and movements that we have come to terms with and can have relations with, carefully and somewhat warily I would advise but the ones I listed along with the other usual suspects can not be given quarter when it comes time to act. History is never over, the test never ends.

When the regime offed between 20 and 40k of their people after the nuke plant strikes….this was always going to be the only option. The regime knows if they hand over power they all meet the gallows. I’m not fully versed on Iranian gun laws but I’m willing to bet most ppl don’t have any firearms. so you’re options are military coup, armed Kurds, of US forces of some kind. regime will play the long game….piss off all their neighbors w drone strikes to get US/Israel to back down.

To destroy the power plants or not? https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-trade-threats-over-energy-targets-war-escalates-2026-03-22/ I’m not sure this will work, the regime has prepared for this for years. I fear that boots on the ground are looking necessary to destroy the Iranian Islamic regime.

We need a pause on legal migration, this is not working as intended https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2026/03/20/give-us-your-tired-your-poor-yourfreebies-nearly-half-of-us-immigrant-households-on-welfare-n2200446

Amazing how many geopolitical, economics, and military strategy experts all of a sudden appear (not just on this forum) during a crisis to start criticizing the whole operation, yet those same experts need to have the details explained to them in small and unclassified terms, otherwise what the US is doing is obviously stupid.

nutbag? classy. source on the bolded?

This is the financial intricacy I was hoping was being lost in the details. I'll try to be more judicious in my use of the word "anyone" when asking a serious question next time. With that ambiguity it was a coin flip between a short rage bait response from the left or a community college dissertation from Ratner...

Huh? When did I say they would stop attacking? I believe we fully expect them to continue to attack, which is why we have destroyed their big Navy and are currently waging a campaign against their swift boats...You might have heard A-10, Apaches and other assets are now in that fight. We have also shifted the air campaign to attacking launch sites and storage for anti-ship capabilities. The price of oil is just as much perception as it is supply. Selling 140 Million barrels will have a small part on both factors. The real issue as BOTH sides know is getting ships flowing through the straight. Killing the swift boats and launchers is part two, a coalition (which it appears is now forming), to sweep the mines is the final stage.

So, Iranian oil can be sold, but Iran can’t receive revenue from any of the sales of their oil? Is that what you’re saying? Then why would Iran not continue to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz until they were literally Winchester just out of spite?

100% and what these nutbags above fail to mention is the U.S. is blocking Iran from receiving the funds for the sale. The move helps stabilize the price of oil, specifically blocks the sale to China, North Korea and Cuba, deprives Iran of the revenue...sounds like 3D chess to me.

This forum still needs a TDS button.........

4D chess from an army major and a business genius that bankrupted a casino

The Obama administration gave Iran roughly $1.7 billion in 2016. We're now allowing 140 million barrels of Iranian oil to be sold. If that oil only sold for $90/barrel it would be $12.6 billion. Does anyone know if there is some financial intricacy I'm missing here that prevents Iran from making that money?

Random internet comparison:

US removes sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil Just like we planned it...

Hopefully it was off the Grand canyon..

Source: The War ZoneUSAF F-35 Makes Emergency Landing After Allegedly Being H...The F-35 was flying a combat mission over Iran when it was forced to divert to a U.S. airbase. The F-35 was flying a combat mission over Iran when it was forced to divert to a U.S. airbase.

Cultural reference

Sorry don't know what a huckleberry is. But I just got back from a UPT base, and I would be glad to share what I heard from the flight line. First most distressing in my mind but maybe not if you're a part 141 dude is there were three engine failures in the last month at ipt, one was with a solo student on takeoff, the same plane / engine had failed the day before on Final. There is a huge gap in uniformity of instruction at the contracted IPT locations, some are nose to the grindstone 7 days a week finishing 30 days early , some as one Lieutenant put it are Club Med FAA rating writtens spoon fed to them. There was a 30 to 40% failure rate in the T6 instrument Sims with the new ipt student flow, they are working to figure out the solution. I witnessed a drop night, only 6 T38s, and when three of those are slotted to Guard /Reserve babies then it's slim pickings for those that did really well and are in the top five or six of their class. One class at a different base got just one T38, still scratching my head on that one but he is the only one in his T-38 class. Lastly, at one of the IPT bases in Phoenix, two Chinese students who were flying at the same school and living in the same dorm complex were caught in one of the lieutenant's rooms photographing the Air Force students" curriculum. No one I talked to could find out if they were PLAAF students or Cathay Pacific. That whole thing is under investigation and the two Chinese students were tossed.

Doing this during the trail is hilarious - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4AiuqQpB1U