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Promotion and PRF Information

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22 hours ago, K_O said:

As stated, black out strats if you want, but promotion creates the pool from which to hire and skills and experiences should matter for promotion. It does outside the AF and it should inside. 3 OPRs don’t provide the whole picture.

I didn't say anything about blacking out strats.  I said limit the number of OPRs.  Skills and experiences should matter for the job at hand, but if you're talking specific skills, those are usually already reflected as an SEI or language on the SURF...which no one is arguing to black out.

What we ARE arguing to remove is some dudes glowing report from IQT 12 years ago.  How is that possibly relevant to the kind of leader he would be as a Lt Col?

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My only other question is, what happens if you don't get promoted after your 5th look? Does the AF boot you? If my math is right, wouldn't a 5th look non-select put a lot of folks at 18-19 years active duty time if your IPZ/1st look is at 13/14 years?

I suspect that's part of the move.  Now people who are passed over twice can't get out of a UPT or bonus commitment.  They have to stay to 18+ years of service, and then they'll likely not be booted because of sanctuary.  That's one way to improve retention, I guess.

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8 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

Yes. Part of the new authority is the ability to disregard “up or out”.

So I'm guessing if the passed over member is automatically added back to the next promotion pool, he/she no longer has the option of receiving involuntary separation pay?

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13 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

Yes. Part of the new authority is the ability to disregard “up or out”.


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Which jives with the last rated retention report. Nearly a third of those pilots who separated did so as a result of being passed over (either via the system or exploitation). This “fixing the glitch” will equate to around 6-9% change in rated retention (at least for a few years). Now your 5th look to O-5 will take you within spitting distance to retirement. 

May the odds ever be in your favor. 

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Now your 5th look to O-5 will take you within spitting distance to retirement. 



What’s the first year group wholly affected by the BRS only/no pension at 20 years deal? Will people in that year group (or those that opted in) even be motivated to stick it out till 20? I doubt it.
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41 minutes ago, Champ Kind said:

 

 


What’s the first year group wholly affected by the BRS only/no pension at 20 years deal? Will people in that year group (or those that opted in) even be motivated to stick it out till 20? I doubt it.

 

 

BRS still has a 40% pension after 20, last I heard.

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I'm going to hug my DD-214 blanket a little tighter tonight.  Good luck guys.

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1 hour ago, raimius said:

BRS still has a 40% pension after 20, last I heard.

Affirm.  2% per year of service instead of 2.5, plus a match to TSP.  I don't know where this idea of "no pension" started, but it sure is pervasive.

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So the mysterious PDSM that everyone has been waiting on was released this afternoon. Looks like most of the '07 YG and all of the '08 YG are excluded from this board and the 5 year window begins with the 06 YG for the most part. OPBs should flow to SRs on 17 Dec and the board convenes 4 May 20.

-APZ (which I thought we were doing away with this terminology...) begins for folks with a DOR of 31 Mar 16 and earlier  

-IPZ is folks with a DOR between 1 Apr 16 - 31 Dec 16

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My functional called me when the PSDM dropped. He thinks it'll be a unique opportunity for APZ guys to get promoted.

I'm not giving up, but I'm also not as optimistic as he is.

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On 12/11/2019 at 7:54 AM, pawnman said:

Promoting someone to Lt Col shouldn't hinge on the fact that they finished #20/21 in their UPT class as a 2 Lt or were the DG of SOS 8 years ago.

I read this as you being concerned about strats.

Either way, I think a person’s record of performance and life experiences are important and frankly think the bullets that talk about work with joint, interagency, and international partners and various operational achievements and deployments are relevant and don’t come close to being captured by SEIs or joint experience indicators that often have a high and somewhat superficial bar to meet to get those boxes checked.

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2 hours ago, pawnman said:

My functional called me when the PSDM dropped. He thinks it'll be a unique opportunity for APZ guys to get promoted.

That’s what I’m trying to tell you. And frankly I don’t give two shits if your last 3 OPRs show that you’ve done a great job as General whoever’s Aide and Chief Exec to the Wg/CC. I also want to see how you did in other positions, particularly in the Ops world.

Edited by K_O

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6 hours ago, K_O said:

I read this as you being concerned about strats.

Either way, I think a person’s record of performance and life experiences are important and frankly think the bullets that talk about work with joint, interagency, and international partners and various operational achievements and deployments are relevant and don’t come close to being captured by SEIs or joint experience indicators that often have a high and somewhat superficial bar to meet to get those boxes checked.

How many Lts have those experiences, do you think?

And do you believe the board is promoting people based on experiences, or push lines?  I suspect it's the latter.  Especially since the people who get those joint or international jobs are usually the #1/x anyway.

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2 hours ago, pawnman said:

How many Lts have those experiences, do you think?

And do you believe the board is promoting people based on experiences, or push lines?  I suspect it's the latter.  Especially since the people who get those joint or international jobs are usually the #1/x anyway.

Maybe not many, but I want to know who they are. That said I’ve worked with plenty of USAF LTs imbedded with joint forces. You may need to think outside of your community a bit.

Like it or not your record tells a story. Maybe it’s that you are a box-checking douche or maybe it shows you’re not at the same level of boxes checked as your peers because you were a nonstop volunteer for opportunities to kill ISIS. Can’t get that story with 3 OPRs.

Also, push lines, those are gone. At least in their absurd previous form.

We need to be careful that we don’t apply old ways of thinking to these new tools, and move forward. The worst thing we can do is to think of all these changes in terms of the past. Some people will try to conform them to past practices. I hope they get fired.

Edited by K_O

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46 minutes ago, K_O said:

Maybe not many, but I want to know who they are. That said I’ve worked with plenty of USAF LTs imbedded with joint forces. You may need to think outside of your community a bit.

Like it or not your record tells a story. Maybe it’s that you are a box-checking douche or maybe it shows you’re not at the same level of boxes checked as your peers because you were a nonstop volunteer for opportunities to kill ISIS. Can’t get that story with 3 OPRs.

Also, push lines, those are gone. At least in their absurd previous form.

We need to be careful that we don’t apply old ways of thinking to these new tools, and move forward. The worst thing we can do is to think of all these changes in terms of the past. Some people will try to conform them to past practices. I hope they get fired.

Only works if you are willing to promote the nonstop volunteers to kill ISIS.  The idea that someone will make a great senior leader because they were DG at USAFA or SOS is insane.  It separates out potential leaders way too early.  

Make it 5 OPRs.  Make it 6.  But I don't think the board really needs your commissioning training report and your first OPR as a 2 LT to make a promotion decision to Lt Col.  

And, one more time, promotion boards aren't matching people with experience to jobs.  There are other mechanisms for that, with the from records available.  

I'm curious... Would you unmask Masters degrees if you could?  That's part of someone's qualification and experience, right?

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4 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

PSDM is out. 5 year window starts at when you would be IPZ. 06 is the youngest year group for the May 20 board.


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I think once all the changes have normalized, socialized, or what have you, this will be mostly a non-issue.

In the meantime, it's transition issues that will be the most interesting.

Who will get opportunities, someone with a BTZ on the record or someone just a year behind but with an identical record otherwise without?  School, jobs, and similar opportunities tend to snowball.  With momentum comes more momentum and this will clearly change the record of those on either side of this line. 

Statistically, there are very few, but for high level jobs, it's most of those being selected.  Will there be a few year gap with haves and have-nots?

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All of these changes are great ideas, and overdue. At the end of the day it’s still going to come down to DP or P. If you have one, you’re pretty much set. If you don’t, it’s a coin flip. How these choose to allocate and distribute those designations will be the real test of the “fairness” of the new system.

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Random thoughts...

The HPOs will now be picked up 1st and 2nd looks (effectively BTZs).  3rd looks will be the middle of the road guys/gals.  I want to say this new timeline is similar to Army's O5 IPZs.

5th look won't matter for most people.  Getting picked up at 18 yrs TIS means you have to serve past 20 get the O5 retirement.  Is the O4/O5 retirement differential worth it?  You definitely won't be eligible for leadership and future advancement opportunities at 18/19 yrs TIS.  I suppose people might enjoy Lt Col (ret) in the sig block.

This will probably help alleviate the manning problem in the short term because the fence sitters now need to delay their decision and stick around a little longer (false hope?) and there probably is no more involuntary separation pay.

"Y'all got any more of them strats?" --- davechappellememe.jpg

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Slightly related, 06 year group traditional reservist that doesn’t have any desire to do ACSC or make O-5:

Can I make it to sanctuary now without needing to be granted continuation? My primary AFSC is 11M but I am not in a flying duty so I’m not sure if it is as “automatic” as if I were actively flying.


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5 hours ago, baller06 said:

Slightly related, 06 year group traditional reservist that doesn’t have any desire to do ACSC or make O-5:

Can I make it to sanctuary now without needing to be granted continuation? My primary AFSC is 11M but I am not in a flying duty so I’m not sure if it is as “automatic” as if I were actively flying.


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The key factor that I have seen is whether you have a break in service between AD and Reserve time.  No break in service or bad years, you’re probably good to go. Any breaks, you usually need to make O-5 to get past 20 years of commissioned time and get 20 good years. 

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Thanks ExCONS, no break in service and I’ll definitely make sure I get 6 and a half more good years!


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