Tariff wars

[Majestik Møøse]

Bill Oreilly still exists? And people listen to his guesses about economics? Jesus.

[Clark Griswold]

Related to the theme of this thread, posted as I thought Farage described the issue very well:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/04/28/farages-reform-set-to-spark-biggest-british-political-realignment-in-a-century-says-top-pollster/
 

“Capitalism is dead, it doesn’t exist, we’re living in corporatism. An unholy alliance of big business, big banks, and big government… I genuinely think we won’t get economic growth if the country is dominated by six giant multinationals, none of whom pay tax on-shore.”

 

Edited April 28 by Clark Griswold

[FourFans]

On 4/27/2025 at 6:25 PM, Majestik Møøse said:

Bill Oreilly still exists? And people listen to his guesses about economics? Jesus.

My parents do...it's simultaneously depressing and entertaining when they bring up his talking points.

[ClearedHot]

They just announced a deal with China.  Lets see how this turns out...

The UK deal was more symbolic than anything.

With egg prices down, fuel costs down (inflation will come down in lag with energy costs), the border is closed and Trump just came out in favor of higher taxes on the top 1%.  The Carville/Bernie/AOC are going to have to dig deep into the bag to find things to cry about.

[Banzai]

35 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

They just announced a deal with China.  Lets see how this turns out...

The UK deal was more symbolic than anything.

With egg prices down, fuel costs down (inflation will come down in lag with energy costs), the border is closed and Trump just came out in favor of higher taxes on the top 1%.  The Carville/Bernie/AOC are going to have to dig deep into the bag to find things to cry about.

Here’s the pragmatic answer - they aren’t gonna have a problem unless things change a lot. 

In reality, egg prices haven’t actually changed significantly for consumers (turns out bulk price decreases don’t matter to families), gas prices same. Tax proposals to create structures where the rich pay more are not supported by republicans in congress AND proposed policies that include elimination of income tax + tariffs are highly regressive, so good luck making people believe that the Repubs will actually do anything.

Probably a graph like this would play well in the “things to cry about:”

And immigration policy - despite whatever wins may be occurring - will be met with criticisms about the administration using tactics that appear dictatorial and unconstitutional.

Maybe they’d throw the fact that the Epstein logs still haven’t been released? Who knows!

That’s how 60% of America views those issues now. Hope it actually gets better.

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, Banzai said:

Here’s the pragmatic answer - they aren’t gonna have a problem unless things change a lot. 

In reality, egg prices haven’t actually changed significantly for consumers (turns out bulk price decreases don’t matter to families), gas prices same. Tax proposals to create structures where the rich pay more are not supported by republicans in congress AND proposed policies that include elimination of income tax + tariffs are highly regressive, so good luck making people believe that the Repubs will actually do anything.

Probably a graph like this would play well in the “things to cry about:”

And immigration policy - despite whatever wins may be occurring - will be met with criticisms about the administration using tactics that appear dictatorial and unconstitutional.

Maybe they’d throw the fact that the Epstein logs still haven’t been released? Who knows!

That’s how 60% of America views those issues now. Hope it actually gets better.

You must live in California.

National price for a dozen eggs is WAY down.

 

Energy prices related to the price of crude ALWAYS lag and impact for more than simply what you pay at the pump.  they matriculate across all aspects of the economy from production to transportation of goods.  We've already seen the indicators from march Core Inflation...should continue to decrease.

 

The U.S. market graph is somewhat funny...for so long we heard how all of the other economies were doing so poorly, of course they had more upside.  I bought in at some of the lows, especially blue chips and I am above where I was when the corrections started.  Actually bought a new range rover this week with some of it.

The DNC can scream about process and storm ICE detention centers but the overall opinion is he is doing the right thing with the illegals.  Don;t get me wrong, I want to follow the law but most don't seem to care.

 

 

[Banzai]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

You must live in California.

National price for a dozen eggs is WAY down.

 

Energy prices related to the price of crude ALWAYS lag and impact for more than simply what you pay at the pump.  they matriculate across all aspects of the economy from production to transportation of goods.  We've already seen the indicators from march Core Inflation...should continue to decrease.

 

The U.S. market graph is somewhat funny...for so long we heard how all of the other economies were doing so poorly, of course they had more upside.  I bought in at some of the lows, especially blue chips and I am above where I was when the corrections started.  Actually bought a new range rover this week with some of it.

The DNC can scream about process and storm ICE detention centers but the overall opinion is he is doing the right thing with the illegals.  Don;t get me wrong, I want to follow the law but most don't seem to care.

 

 

Your data are wholesale prices and commodities markets - not what people are actually paying. I do not live in California, but in nowhere-ville east coast eggs were $5.29 and gas was $3.45 today.

Remember when Biden would cherry pick economic data to gaslight people about how good the economy was?

 

The overall opinion is absolutely not what you stated. It is in your echo chambers, I am sure. But not in reality.

The polls show that people neither believe Trump is doing well overall or on immigration. Yes, >85% of republicans are happy. But the actual majority of America are negative.

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/29/nx-s1-5379596/trump-100-days-polling-grade-approval-rating

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/25/trump-immigration-approval-ratings-drop-poll/

Edited 20 hours ago by Banzai

[Day Man]

1 minute ago, Banzai said:

Your data are wholesale prices and commodities markets - not what people are actually paying. I do not live in California, but in nowhere-ville east coast eggs were $5.29 and gas was $3.45 today.

Remember when Biden would cherry pick economic data to gaslight people about how good the economy was?

sounds like TDS bro...gas is $1.98/gal! 

[Banzai]

I figured it out, this forum probably gets their programming directly from Truth Social. This is a real message from the real president.

[ClearedHot]

10 hours ago, Banzai said:

Your data are wholesale prices and commodities markets - not what people are actually paying. I do not live in California, but in nowhere-ville east coast eggs were $5.29 and gas was $3.45 today.

Remember when Biden would cherry pick economic data to gaslight people about how good the economy was?

 

The overall opinion is absolutely not what you stated. It is in your echo chambers, I am sure. But not in reality.

The polls show that people neither believe Trump is doing well overall or on immigration. Yes, >85% of republicans are happy. But the actual majority of America are negative.

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/29/nx-s1-5379596/trump-100-days-polling-grade-approval-rating

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/25/trump-immigration-approval-ratings-drop-poll/

I am not cherry picking anything...

I bought eggs two days ago local and they were sub $4.00, Regular gas (I use premium), was $2.59.

I did not say the economy is good, but it clearly is improving and is likely to do so.

The futures are up big this morning (Dow 1,000 pts / NASDAQ 891 pts), as a result of the trade deal with China.  I believe the deal sets the baseline at 10% on both sides.

I certainly don't think Trump is going to replace the income tax with tariffs, but his strategy (which absolutely needed to be done), does appear to be working.

I don't do truth and while my "echo chamber" is to focus on the positive yours is all negative.

[Banzai]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

I am not cherry picking anything...

I bought eggs two days ago local and they were sub $4.00, Regular gas (I use premium), was $2.59.

I did not say the economy is good, but it clearly is improving and is likely to do so.

The futures are up big this morning (Dow 1,000 pts / NASDAQ 891 pts), as a result of the trade deal with China.  I believe the deal sets the baseline at 10% on both sides.

I certainly don't think Trump is going to replace the income tax with tariffs, but his strategy (which absolutely needed to be done), does appear to be working.

I don't do truth and while my "echo chamber" is to focus on the positive yours is all negative.

I don’t think I sit in echo chambers, just like you think you don’t. So I’m probably being unfair, but it’s the internet I guess.

At the same time, anecdotal evidence doesn’t mean that they correspond with real prices. Even if my eggs were $7, that would not mean everyone’s were. Just like your eggs being 3.69 doesn’t mean average prices significantly decreased.

The egg prices from the source you quoted (I am familiar) are not retail cost:

“The egg prices refer to the national FOB average prices of white large eggs in wholesale markets, calculated based on the cost of 30-dozen cases of caged shell eggs.”

And you know that oil futures do not correspond to refined gas prices.

The tariffs are temporary (90 day) 30/10 tariffs. I do not believe tariffs have been demonstrated to be good economic policy, regardless of party. And I don’t have as much belief in the strategy in the mid term, based on the high probability of both inflation/recession AND the soft power reputational and relational costs that come with them. What is the long term play and the second/third order effects? I subscribe to the cyclical monetary thoughts that we are approaching a reckoning with our currency (we are well into quantitative easing).

In the end, I hope that the policies do help the country. But investments are dependent on market sentiment and stability, and I see significant risk there.

[ClearedHot]

22 minutes ago, Banzai said:

I don’t think I sit in echo chambers, just like you think you don’t. So I’m probably being unfair, but it’s the internet I guess.

At the same time, anecdotal evidence doesn’t mean that they correspond with real prices. Even if my eggs were $7, that would not mean everyone’s were. Just like your eggs being 3.69 doesn’t mean average prices significantly decreased.

The egg prices from the source you quoted (I am familiar) are not retail cost:

“The egg prices refer to the national FOB average prices of white large eggs in wholesale markets, calculated based on the cost of 30-dozen cases of caged shell eggs.”

And you know that oil futures do not correspond to refined gas prices.

The tariffs are temporary (90 day) 30/10 tariffs. I do not believe tariffs have been demonstrated to be good economic policy, regardless of party. And I don’t have as much belief in the strategy in the mid term, based on the high probability of both inflation/recession AND the soft power reputational and relational costs that come with them. What is the long term play and the second/third order effects? I subscribe to the cyclical monetary thoughts that we are approaching a reckoning with our currency (we are well into quantitative easing).

In the end, I hope that the policies do help the country. But investments are dependent on market sentiment and stability, and I see significant risk there.

I think we both reside in our personal bias.  I have been clear that I do not blindly follow Trump...he is so caustic I wish there was another option but he obviously has a death grip on the base and it turned into a binary choice (again).  As much as I despise his mouth I checked his name on the ballot because IMO electing Harris would have driven us over a cliff.

Lets be clear on anecdotal evidence, you quoted anecdotal evidence first...I quoted the national average of wholesale which will eventually matriculate down to brick and mortar stores.  The whole egg story is stupid anyway....it was not the fault of either party, rather the confluence of some bad events and several outbreaks of Bird Flu which led to culling of millions of chickens.  Chickens breed quickly and flock are recovering rapidly, some regulation of the edges would likely help.

With regard to oil futures, it is NOT just about refined gas but for some reason that is what people lock on to, I guess because they see it on the pump everytime they fill up.  I am sure you know oil still powers our economy and as the price of crude so does all of the cost associate with producing and transporting goods.  Also, energy costs are always in lag and will likely show next quarter.  The beginnings showed in March as core inflation decreased.

With regard to currency and our reckoning, we need another thread but yes turbulent times ahead.

Tariffs...I applaud what Trump has done, as long as it remains part of bargaining.  The imbalance of tariffs against the U.S. and our industry is staggering and we turned a blind eye for so long it became the norm.  I do not believe the Tariff talk was anything more than bargaining bluster which is standard for Trump and luckily in this case we have the upper hand on the Chinese which is the key to all of the other deals.  

As far as other policies...in my other post I referenced Trump's willingness to raise taxes on the wealthy...we all know that is very symbolic unless they substantially change the laws on trusts and borrowing against wealth to avoid taxes (trust me I personally benefit from it).  What is more important is he said it out loud...again, a Republican President said it out loud.  There is symbology here and while it might not make it through the house, it stymies the DNC argument.  

He is also supposed to sign an executive order today that limits prescription drug prices...pharmaceutical donors to the GOP are not happy today.

[Biff_T]

14 hours ago, Banzai said:

I do not live in California, but in nowhere-ville east coast eggs

I live in California.  

Eggs are gay.