World War III Updates

[fire4effect]

On 10/19/2024 at 1:14 PM, StoleIt said:

Tit for tat.

 

Makes you wonder just how much they're willing to poke the bear. 

This whole thing could go sideways on a regional level really quick. 

[FourFans]

Peter Zeihan forecasts that Israel is going to smack Iran's oil production and distribution, which could spark Iran to ultimately push on Saudi.   I'm not putting money on anything, but that's an interesting prediction.

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, FourFans said:

Peter Zeihan forecasts that Israel is going to smack Iran's oil production and distribution, which could spark Iran to ultimately push on Saudi.   I'm not putting money on anything, but that's an interesting prediction.

Iran on Saudi Arabia with no outside interference is one I'd like to see  🙂 In a vacuum at least  

[Clayton Bigsby]

10 hours ago, uhhello said:

Iran on Saudi Arabia with no outside interference is one I'd like to see  🙂 In a vacuum at least  

Cripple fight?

[Lord Ratner]

Marco voices interviewed a guy named Anas recently who goes over why Israel is probably not going to hit Iran's oil. It's an interesting conversation. 

 

Lots of support needed from other countries to make a meaningful dent in Iran's oil capacity. 

 

I suspect they will target people. Israel has been on a roll cutting heads off snakes.

[ClearedHot]

7 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Marco voices interviewed a guy named Anas recently who goes over why Israel is probably not going to hit Iran's oil. It's an interesting conversation. 

 

Lots of support needed from other countries to make a meaningful dent in Iran's oil capacity. 

 

I suspect they will target people. Israel has been on a roll cutting heads off snakes.

Who would they hit? 

While Israel has used the current conflict to go after some high level folks in Hamas and Hezzbolah, going after Ali Khamenei is a whole other level that could make the conflict go high order.  The Biden administration is already holding Israel back when it comes to striking the nuclear facilities, I doubt they would clear them to go after top Iranian leadership.  However, if they pull the string and show direct help (aside from the obvious funding), from Iran to Hezzbolah on the drone assassination attempt on Netanyahu it might be a different story.  Interestingly Israel's verbal response - Netanyahu said "Hezbollah would pay a "heavy price" for launching a drone targeting his house...zero mentions of Iranian assistance.

I think (and hope), the response will be measured, military facilities/capabilities and some oil production.

I think I've mentioned it before but for those looking for a better understanding of the Iranians and their thinking, I highly recommend the book "The Persian Puzzle."  While there is a rarely a single definitive book that provides a complete view of a country or situation, this book does a great job of walking recent history to gain a some perspective on how Iranian thinking has been shaped by constant tension with the U.S. starting with the fall of the shah and the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran in 1979.

[ClearedHot]

Israel just took out the projected new leader of Hezbollah...they are on a run!

[Smokin]

Didn't Israel say they wouldn't hit Iranian oil?  My bet is they hit something in the logistics train that decreases their ability to sell oil, but not hit refineries and such themselves.  Maybe shipyards, docks, etc.

[fire4effect]

On 10/22/2024 at 9:50 AM, FourFans said:

Peter Zeihan forecasts that Israel is going to smack Iran's oil production and distribution, which could spark Iran to ultimately push on Saudi.   I'm not putting money on anything, but that's an interesting prediction.

 

23 hours ago, uhhello said:

Iran on Saudi Arabia with no outside interference is one I'd like to see  🙂 In a vacuum at least  

From an economic perspective Saudi would make bank with a spike in oil prices as long as they could still ship oil. 

On a somewhat related note, a fair number on this forum make their money in the Part 121 transportation industry so a lot of economic skin in the game to go around.

One way the US could be sucked into this would be the Iranian Navy trying to cut off the Strait of Hormuz and given Israel isn't known as a naval power that doesn't leave a lot of options to counter outside the US. Not that I have a problem with turning the Iranian Fleet into multiple artificial reefs that they have no real way to replace in a timely manner. No way they could really keep up in a sustained conflict.

Final question. Doesn't China get most of its oil from Iran? Interesting how they might react to this trainwreck.

If this happens, I don't see it before November 6.

[SurelySerious]

From an economic perspective Saudi would make bank with a spike in oil prices as long as they could still ship oil. 
On a somewhat related note, a fair number on this forum make their money in the Part 121 transportation industry so a lot of economic skin in the game to go around.
One way the US could be sucked into this would be the Iranian Navy trying to cut off the Strait of Hormuz and given Israel isn't known as a naval power that doesn't leave a lot of options to counter outside the US. Not that I have a problem with turning the Iranian Fleet into multiple artificial reefs that they have no real way to replace in a timely manner. No way they could really keep up in a sustained conflict.
Final question. Doesn't China get most of its oil from Iran? Interesting how they might react to this trainwreck.
If this happens, I don't see it before November 6.

And countering Iran through a couple mile wide straight with the age of covert fast attack suicide boats and drones…that’s going to be fun using billion dollar warships.

[Lawman]

And countering Iran through a couple mile wide straight with the age of covert fast attack suicide boats and drones…that’s going to be fun using billion dollar warships.

At this point nobody except the Iranians need to worry about the restriction of that straight. Saudi can pipe the oil out the other way. The only reason they don’t is the price per barrel is still low enough to justify shipping it via boat from the old oil ports. Things get hot, Iran effectively isolates its self.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[busdriver]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

 Things get hot, Iran effectively isolates its self.

And China.  The pipelined oil goes the other way.

[ClearedHot]

Israel knows how to drop a building.  As per usual they've "tinkered" with some our toys to make them better...or purpose suited for their missions.

 

[Swizzle]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Israel knows how to drop a building.  As per usual they've "tinkered" with some our toys to make them better...or purpose suited for their missions.

 

And it fell spectacularly in-place, like a professionally dropped, old Vegas casino. Might have even had a nearby drone-show beforehand too!

[ClearedHot]

3 hours ago, Swizzle said:

And it fell spectacularly in-place, like a professionally dropped, old Vegas casino. Might have even had a nearby drone-show beforehand too!

 

[gearhog]

Last time I saw Israel drop a building that cleanly was 9/11.

[Lord Ratner]

8 hours ago, gearhog said:

Last time I saw Israel drop a building that cleanly was 9/11.

That was good. Bravo

[BashiChuni]

how's that ukraine war working out right now that so many of you were in love with? seems like a lot of crickets

[ClearedHot]

As of a few minutes ago Israel has started it's retribution attack and is hitting Iran with strikes in Tehran proper. 

[RegularJoe]

That's got to be a long interesting flight

[Boomer6]

On 10/23/2024 at 9:34 AM, fire4effect said:

If this happens, I don't see it before November 6.

Glad to see Israel took care of business on their timeline and not our election cycle.

[KC46Driver]

13 hours ago, gearhog said:

Last time I saw Israel drop a building that cleanly was 9/11.

I literally lol'd

[fire4effect]

2 hours ago, Boomer6 said:

Glad to see Israel took care of business on their timeline and not our election cycle.

Point taken. I was thinking if they were going to hit their oil production it would be after the election to avoid a spike in prices. Of course, Israel is pragmatic enough to know they can't predict which administration they'll be dealing going forward so they try to maintain some semblance of balance between parties. 

Edited October 26, 2024 by fire4effect

[gearhog]

12 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

how's that ukraine war working out right now that so many of you were in love with? seems like a lot of crickets

Great question. I've been busy building a house this summer, so I haven't been able to pay attention. I just did a quick google search for "Russia Ukraine advances".

I just clicked the first article from the Independent. The first few lines.

"Russian forces are making swift and “significant tactical advances” into the eastern Ukrainian city of Selydove, war monitors have said.

Open source data suggests Russian forces advanced in September at their fastest rate since March 2022, despite Ukraine taking a part of Russia’s Kursk region.

Those rapid advances have continued in the past week as Russian forces appear to be charging towards - or even into - the city of Selydove, which is less than 10 miles south of its main target, the larger city of Pokrovsk, a linchpin of the wider Donetsk region’s defences."

 

I don't think many in the West have the ability to understand an adversary using a "dilatory tactic" in conflict. "Rapid Dominance, Shock and Awe, and Blitzkreig" are what the average American understands as the standard strategic winning tactics. Someone committed to the painfully slow grinding advance without regard to timeline, goal posts, achievements has always been a difficult problem for us.

 

“If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”

 

 

Edited October 26, 2024 by gearhog

[Stoker]

At the current rate of Russian advance, how many years/decades will it take for them to capture Kiev?