Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[HeloDude]

Whenever we as a country get serious about the debt/deficit spending (it will have to happen sooner or later, and I’m guessing at least within the next 5-10 years), cuts to military spending will most definitely have to be on the table.  There is no way we can economically grow our way (or tax our way) out of this massive spending/borrowing problem we have, especially when it seems the country wants to make it much harder to do business.

Over my last decade or so in the military I always thought it was hilarious how officers (on both sides of the political aisle) were so concerned about the military needing more money and didn’t seem to be even a little concerned about our fiscal situation.  Our biggest problems in the near/mid future will be internal not external…but hey, what’s another hundred billion dollars for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel?
 

[NKAWTG]

13 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Whenever we as a country get serious about the debt/deficit spending (it will have to happen sooner or later, and I’m guessing at least within the next 5-10 years), cuts to military spending will most definitely have to be on the table.  There is no way we can economically grow our way (or tax our way) out of this massive spending/borrowing problem we have, especially when it seems the country wants to make it much harder to do business.

Over my last decade or so in the military I always thought it was hilarious how officers (on both sides of the political aisle) were so concerned about the military needing more money and didn’t seem to be even a little concerned about our fiscal situation.  Our biggest problems in the near/mid future will be internal not external…but hey, what’s another hundred billion dollars for Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel?
 

The preferred government method for paying debt is inflation.  Borrow a dollar today, and pay it back when it's worth 50 cents.  You have to find the sweet spot for inflation between lowering your debt burden and keeping the natives from getting too restless.  

The political incentives for cutting spending are not there either, nor have politicians made any serious moves to cut spending.  What they debate now is the lowering the rate at which we increase spending, and touting that as a victory of sorts.  Or adding a sunset clause that won't be honored to make the math work for the GAO. 

This system will keep working until it doesn't, and nobody has a clue what the trigger will be.  

  

 

[HeloDude]

12 minutes ago, NKAWTG said:

The preferred government method for paying debt is inflation.  Borrow a dollar today, and pay it back when it's worth 50 cents.  You have to find the sweet spot for inflation between lowering your debt burden and keeping the natives from getting too restless.  

The political incentives for cutting spending are not there either, nor have politicians made any serious moves to cut spending.  What they debate now is the lowering the rate at which we increase spending, and touting that as a victory of sorts.  Or adding a sunset clause that won't be honored to make the math work for the GAO. 

This system will keep working until it doesn't, and nobody has a clue what the trigger will be. 

That tells me that if you think inflation has been bad the last few years, then just wait.  Also welcome to even higher interest rates (not necessarily the worst thing).  I don’t see how this will be good for the economy for the average Joe shmoe and I think we’ll definitely see some pushback from the electorate.

 

[Lawman]

It's unlikely that I can type this in a way that is elementary enough for you to understand, but I'm going to try anyway.
1. The "Replicator Initiative" that you brought up is an "initiative", or program in development for future use. The word "future" means not today.
2. The drone capabilities you mentioned exist at this moment. They are being used in this moment.
3. The $Billions of our money that has been committed for the Ukraine Appropriations bills are not for the "Replicator Initiative".
4. The $Billions of our money that has been committed ARE for the more expensive conventional war-fighting that you were bitching about.
5. Nearly 80% of the Ukraine Appropriations are going not to Ukraine so they can acquire their own war-fighting capabilities,  but directly to the manufacturers of the $100 anti-tank missiles you were bitching about.
6. It is logical to assume there is little interest in your combat-effective and cost effective solution that currently exists.
Again, these are some highly advanced concepts, but if you need me to break it down even further for you, I don't mind trying.
 

No it isn’t “logical” to assume anything, because you aren’t assuming anything you’re deliberately misrepresentation the facts of the conversation for your regular drum beat of abandon Ukraine. That’s the “point” you’re trying to make.

I specifically said a COIN mode of usage for a low cost kinetic system (which we have similar programs in active acquisition), and you’re screaming about Ukraine which is without a doubt not a COIN fight.


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[gearhog]

2 hours ago, Lawman said:

No it isn’t “logical” to assume anything, because you aren’t assuming anything you’re deliberately misrepresentation the facts of the conversation for your regular drum beat of abandon Ukraine. That’s the “point” you’re trying to make.

I specifically said a COIN mode of usage for a low cost kinetic system (which we have similar programs in active acquisition), and you’re screaming about Ukraine which is without a doubt not a COIN fight.

False claim. I haven't misrepresented anything. Take a moment and look at the top of the page. It reads "Russian Ukraine shenanigans". This discussion is about the Ukraine conflict, which I do have an opinion. The video you responded to is titled "Darwin’s War | Inside the secret bunker of Ukraine’s ace FPV drone pilot."

Therefore, the thread, the discussion, and the video pertain to the conflict in Ukraine. Confused yet? You assert that this is an effective low-cost solution to killing the bad guys. I assert that in the context of the thread, the discussion, and the video, an effective low-cost solution isn't what we are seeking as evidenced by the things we are purchasing for the Ukrainians. I'm not screaming, I'm merely typing my perspective and informing you of the flaws in yours. Who is making the deliberate misrepresentations? That would be you. Enjoy.

 

[Lawman]

False claim. I haven't misrepresented anything. Take a moment and look at the top of the page. It reads "Russian Ukraine shenanigans". This discussion is about the Ukraine conflict, which I do have an opinion. The video you responded to is titled "Darwin’s War | Inside the secret bunker of Ukraine’s ace FPV drone pilot."
Therefore, the thread, the discussion, and the video pertain to the conflict in Ukraine. Confused yet? You assert that this is an effective low-cost solution to killing the bad guys. I assert that in the context of the thread, the discussion, and the video, an effective low-cost solution isn't what we are seeking as evidenced by the things we are purchasing for the Ukrainians. I'm not screaming, I'm merely typing my perspective and informing you of the flaws in yours. Who is making the deliberate misrepresentations? That would be you. Enjoy.
 

You’re deliberately misquoting or cutting out statements of context and then misrepresenting or ignoring parts of those statements for your own twisted up ends.

Absolutely nothing I said in the first 2 paragraphs were disconnected from the actual 3rd one you decided to cherry pick from, nor did I ever imply that these systems were the end all replacement for higher cost munitions you did. You made that part up in space to circle us back to a wider “we can’t afford and therefore,” narrative., and now you’re trying to pretend you didn’t.


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[gearhog]

54 minutes ago, Lawman said:

You’re deliberately misquoting or cutting out statements of context and then misrepresenting or ignoring parts of those statements for your own twisted up ends.

Absolutely nothing I said in the first 2 paragraphs were disconnected from the actual 3rd one you decided to cherry pick from, nor did I ever imply that these systems were the end all replacement for higher cost munitions you did. You made that part up in space to circle us back to a wider “we can’t afford and therefore,” narrative., and now you’re trying to pretend you didn’t.

You are incorrect. Could possibly be because you don't understand what "quote" means. I've either used the quote link below your post to quote your words verbatim, or used one or two of your words in quotations marks. If it doesn't appear that way on your end, it's either a problem with your device or comprehension.

I actually paid you a complement initially by saying your post was logical and made sense before you went off the rails. You're welcome. I never said that you implied that this drone technology was the end all replacement. I just made an effort to make your off-topic ramblings relevant to the conversation everyone else is having about Ukraine. You're welcome again.

Since I'm explaining what the word "quote" means, allow me to direct your attention to the fact that you used quotation marks to quote me as saying "we can't afford and therefore".  Nowhere in my previous posts have I used those words, and that makes you a blatant hypocrite for lying when you said, and I quote, "You’re deliberately misquoting..." What I have said is that we should not be spending the money. That's different than not being able to afford something, and leads me to believe you don't understand basic economics.

Now, to steer the conversation back onto course: There are countless vids of these relatively cheap FPV/drones being used by both sides and having a tremendous effect on a conventional battlefield, not just COIN. It stands to reason that if we truly wanted to multiply that effect, we would be absolutely flooding the battlefield with this technology. We could do so today, but we are not, because our DIB cannot yet capitalize on it. What we are doing, is funding a complex development program called "Replicator Initiative" for another $Billion dollars that will not be fielded for at least 18-24 months. That's just for the initial iteration, after that the intent is to ramp up spending after FY26. Once we have that system, do you really think we would just hand it to the Ukrainians? Not going to happen.

"The department ultimately wants a total of $1 billion to fully fund the program, officials have stated." - That's what a quote looks like.

[uhhello]

You guys really need your own thread

[RASH]

You guys really need your own thread

Was just gonna say…this shits getting old


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[gearhog]

1 hour ago, RASH said:

Was just gonna say…this shits getting old
 

So's your wife. You either stick with it or find another. I'm loyal to the bitter end. I was here in the beginning and I'll be here at 404 Not Found. Its the same as its ever been.

Anyone remember the "Savage Forums" sister forum to this one when they were both at dynamictruth.com? Those folks would eat everyone's lunch here today in the Social/Political forum. 😂

 

[uhhello]

You're not arguing anything of substance though.  You're just going back and forth on who said what in every post.....Checking the thread only to see a wall of text from both of you going over the same stuff gets a big annoying.  Create your own thread so we don't have to read it 🙂 Or don't.  

Edited May 23, 2024 by uhhello

[RASH]

You're not arguing anything of substance though.  You're just going back and forth on who said what in every post.....Checking the thread only to see a wall of text from both of you going over the same stuff gets a big annoying.  Create your own thread so we don't have to read it Or don't.  

Seriously, STFU and move on…


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[gearhog]

5 hours ago, uhhello said:

You're not arguing anything of substance though.  You're just going back and forth on who said what in every post.....Checking the thread only to see a wall of text from both of you going over the same stuff gets a big annoying.  Create your own thread so we don't have to read it 🙂 Or don't.  

I kinda disagree with ya, but I understand where you're coming from. I don't want to annoy you, so I'll try harder to keep the conversation relevant and be more succinct in my posts. Cheers.

 

[gearhog]

Reuters: Russia is ready to end the conflict. Will we continue to push the Ukrainians to fight on?

 

 

[StoleIt]

1) Do we believe Putin and why? This could easily be a chance for Russian forces to rest, re-equip, and re-arm as well as mass and further fortify their current positions. Then, when they so choose, continue their advance.

2) Is Zelenskyy okay with those terms? Publicly he has stated his terms include the pre-invasion borders...

[BashiChuni]

the only side that needs to re-equip and re-arm ain't the russian side.

[StoleIt]

20 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

the only side that needs to re-equip and re-arm ain't the russian side.

True, when you don't mind sending your troops into combat on unarmored ATV's and armed with Mosin–Nagants and have no regard of their well being, let alone surviving, I guess that does give you a bit of a strategic and tactical advantage.

[gearhog]

17 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

True, when you don't mind sending your troops into combat on unarmored ATV's and armed with Mosin–Nagants and have no regard of their well being, let alone surviving, I guess that does give you a bit of a strategic and tactical advantage.

Is it better to fight someone with a strategic and tactical advantage or negotiate with them?

According to the articles, Russia says it will not negotiate with Zelensky as his term ended on 20 May.  Ukraine was a democracy until May 19, but is now operating under martial law indefinitely as a military dictatorship.

[HeloDude]

Come on now…we all know that supporting ceasefires and peace agreements is only cool if the two sides are Hamas and Israel, and only cool when Hamas wants it.

[Smokin]

On 5/24/2024 at 3:32 PM, gearhog said:

Ukraine was a democracy until May 19, but is now operating under martial law indefinitely as a military dictatorship.

As opposed to Russia.... oh, wait, also a dictatorship.

[GrndPndr]

On 5/24/2024 at 3:32 PM, gearhog said:

Is it better to fight someone with a strategic and tactical advantage or negotiate with them?

So many more factors, like the adversary's motivation.  Are they motivated to stop the shenanigans?  Or, how do their goals change the way they think?  Or, are they just d*cks?

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, GrndPndr said:

So many more factors, like the adversary's motivation.  Are they motivated to stop the shenanigans?  Or, how do their goals change the way they think?  Or, are they just d*cks?

Interesting dynamics indeed.  Russia would gain immensely with a cease fire at current lines.  They can rebuild, re-fit, and retrain current forces.  They would obviously be subject to guerilla style attacks but no conventional force on force battles.  

Ukraine would more than likely be able to do the same but to what levels.  External funding would probably greatly decrease but would still be getting a bunch of help.

I don't see Ukraine just laying down arms and calling it a day though.  We wouldn't if it was our land that was taken.  

[gearhog]

9 hours ago, Smokin said:

As opposed to Russia.... oh, wait, also a dictatorship.

I tend to agree. I think Russia is also dictatorship in a practical sense. However, Russia recently held "democratic" elections. You and I both think it's a sham, so we have democratic elections yet still not have a government that serves the best interests of its citizens. Or, you can dispense with the elections altogether and the notion that we support the "good guys" because of "democracy". Can we say this conflict is not about "freedom and democracy"?

7 hours ago, GrndPndr said:

So many more factors, like the adversary's motivation.  Are they motivated to stop the shenanigans?  Or, how do their goals change the way they think?  Or, are they just d*cks?

That's the nature of any foreign diplomatic relationship. Treaties, peace deals, economic agreements, contract, etc, etc, etc. One side never fully knows what the other is really up to. It's just the nature of deals and negotiations. There's always an inherent risk.

[Smokin]

3 hours ago, gearhog said:

I tend to agree. I think Russia is also dictatorship in a practical sense. However, Russia recently held "democratic" elections. You and I both think it's a sham, so we have democratic elections yet still not have a government that serves the best interests of its citizens. Or, you can dispense with the elections altogether and the notion that we support the "good guys" because of "democracy". Can we say this conflict is not about "freedom and democracy"?

That's the nature of any foreign diplomatic relationship. Treaties, peace deals, economic agreements, contract, etc, etc, etc. One side never fully knows what the other is really up to. It's just the nature of deals and negotiations. There's always an inherent risk.

While I don't like the suspension of elections in any scenario, the situation Ukraine is currently in is likely the most justifiable.  Carrying out a campaign, having debates, and conducting an honest and open election in the middle of a war for their very survival on their own land would likely be a significant distraction from the battle and unlikely to meet the purpose of an election.  How would votes from occupied territory count?  The chances of those votes being cast with a Russian political soldier looking over their shoulder would be almost certain and risk a Russian puppet being "voted" into office.  I don't like the suspension, but I understand it as reasonable.  Biggest problem is the get well plan.  An all out victory is unlikely while Putin is alive, so when will Ukraine hold an election next?

Real Russian political opponents end up dead or in prison.  I don't pretend that Ukraine is a model of a democracy, but Russia very well may be a model of what a democracy is not.  To say that Ukraine postponed the elections and therefore this war is not about freedom and democracy anymore is a bit too jaded at this point in my opinion.

[BashiChuni]

"The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that."

"So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders"

- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg 07 Sep 2023

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_218172.htm