Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Lawman]

can't wait for you to call for us to fund all those eastern bloc governments to "defend democracy"
ukraine and russia have historical ties that is undeniable. and not dumb. stop being a war hawk haven't you learned anything post wwii?

You are literally parroting what will be China’s excuse to invade Taiwan in a discussion about deterrence and wider foreign policy like it’s a good reason to reward annexation by force.

Ukraine has “historic ties,” yeah so do the Czech’s. Maybe read a book some time on what the conditions of those historic ties and why they came running into NATO to avoid going back to them. “Eastern Bloc Governments,” wow. Those are NATO partners.


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[BashiChuni]

https://dnyuz.com/2023/12/12/ukraine-is-on-the-cusp-of-losing-this-war-were-screwed/

 

so whats the move playboy? you gonna put american troops in ukraine to stop them from losing?

honest question. now that you've hitched your wagon to a losing side what's next? gonna have to continue escalating and you're gonna stumble us into WW3

[Lawman]

https://dnyuz.com/2023/12/12/ukraine-is-on-the-cusp-of-losing-this-war-were-screwed/
 
so whats the move playboy? you gonna put american troops in ukraine to stop them from losing?
honest question. now that you've hitched your wagon to a losing side what's next? gonna have to continue escalating and you're gonna stumble us into WW3

What did you get tired of reading RT?



Nobody in here has called for US troops in Ukraine. What we have done is call out your isolationist BS and parroting of Russian talking points to justify just leaving Ukraine in the wind like it will stop there.

The entire mission of Foreign Internal Defense was to build combat capability by partner nations so we could avoid needing larger troop deployments later. What we’ve been doing the past 2 years has accomplished that in Ukraine. Continue mission.


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[BashiChuni]

you didn't answer my question. ukraine is losing. what next?

oh i know...."trust the experts" like yourself huh? 🤪

FID isn't gonna win this war my son.

Edited December 12, 2023 by BashiChuni

[Lawman]

you didn't answer my question. ukraine is losing. what next?
oh i know...."trust the experts" like yourself huh?
FID isn't gonna win this war my son.

Yeah lord knows the way to show you are about to lose a war is to successfully conduct a wet gap crossing.

You’re reading trash media claiming to have any idea what’s going on and saying we (the west) need to abandon Ukraine because of their “historic ties to Russia.” What point do you have to make other than to be a relief to all of the sane you aren’t in charge of anything?


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[BashiChuni]

ukraine is losing. that is a fact. what is your plan to fix that besides throwing money at the problem?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/takeaways-volodymyr-zelensky-washington

zelensky wouldn't be begging for money in DC if things were all good

Edited December 12, 2023 by BashiChuni

[StoleIt]

17 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

ukraine is losing. that is a fact. what is your plan to fix that besides throwing money at the problem?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/takeaways-volodymyr-zelensky-washington

zelensky wouldn't be begging for money in DC if things were all good

That is not a fact. Just because the dude is campaigning for support doesn't mean they are losing. They have been retaking an impressive amount of land that was previously occupied from the Russians (reference this post). 

Is it a tough situation? Yes, obviously...but the Ukrainian military will be much better off with modern weapons that can help minimize their casualties while maximizing Russian casualties. They have done wonders with HIMARs and artillery alone.

[FourFans]

2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

ukraine is losing. that is a fact.

Please support that statement.  Preferably with facts.

You would have been a riot to listen to during the Blitz in England, or during the Battle of the Bulge, or during the seige of Stalingrad, or right after Pearl Harbor.  You are taking a very short and narrow view of a very broad and deep problem.  Maybe try a wider breadth of media coverage.  Ukraine is winning.  Ukraine is losing.  Both sides have valid arguments, yet you're only choosing to listen to one side.  I don't know what bias is driving you to that, but I recommend some self-analysis.

[uhhello]

Halve these numbers and it's still insane to say Russia is 'winning'.  They shot their load for a war of attrition using every willing/un-willing 'soldier' at this point.  They have nukes which may or may not work/exist at this point for defense.  What did they gain for that?  

 

 

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

Edited December 12, 2023 by uhhello

[Lawman]

Halve these numbers and it's still insane to say Russia is 'winning'.  They shot their load for a war of attrition using every willing/un-willing 'soldier' at this point.  They have nukes which may or may not work/exist at this point for defense.  What did they gain for that?  
 
 
Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

A regiment of 4th Guards Division was recently seen training with T-62s.

Let that sink in for people that don’t understand, that is the Russian Army’s most prolific Armor formation. They are the guys that are based to protect Moscow that had the best equipment. They got chewed to hell fighting along the fight to Sumy. The loss situation is such that they can’t replace their losses and maintain the front.

That would be like us having a bunch of Eagle/Viper squadrons lose their aircraft and then get handed F4/5s to regen with because the modern airframes were needed elsewhere.


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[BashiChuni]

2 hours ago, FourFans said:

Please support that statement.  Preferably with facts.

You would have been a riot to listen to during the Blitz in England, or during the Battle of the Bulge, or during the seige of Stalingrad, or right after Pearl Harbor.  You are taking a very short and narrow view of a very broad and deep problem.  Maybe try a wider breadth of media coverage.  Ukraine is winning.  Ukraine is losing.  Both sides have valid arguments, yet you're only choosing to listen to one side.  I don't know what bias is driving you to that, but I recommend some self-analysis.

Self analysis. I swore to support and defend the constitution. Never swore to uphold Eastern Europe. Ukraine is not nato. We have zero obligation to defend the them. 
 

many of you need to reexamine who you’re being loyal to. It’s sad how brainwashed by the military industrial complex you are. War and more war. Most Americans are sick of it. 

[raimius]

4 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

ukraine is losing. that is a fact. what is your plan to fix that besides throwing money at the problem?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/takeaways-volodymyr-zelensky-washington

zelensky wouldn't be begging for money in DC if things were all good

Ukraine is at an economic and manpower disadvantage, it would be stupid NOT to continually beg for better equipment and money from outside nations.  That's not a indicator of losing.  Terrain-wise, it's pretty much at a statement with local advances of sub-kilometer distances by each side.  

Take away external support and Ukraine will lose the conventional fight, due to material shortages and likely increased human losses.  They may choose to go unconventional at that point, but why let that happen when they have rough parity via donations/loans?

[BashiChuni]

So we’re attriting Russia. Great. But if this is a war of attrition I wouldn’t bet against the bear. American dollars don’t fix a manpower problem. 
 

unless

 

you fools want to deploy American troops on Ukrainian soil. 

[O Face]

12 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I don't think anyone views you or Bashi as a fanboy (at least I hope not), more akin to the isolationists leading up to WWII. 

We've been dancing with Russia since the end of WW II with ups and downs on both sides.  The collapse of the FSU gave hope for long-term peace.  Even the proxy conflicts abated for many years.  However, with the rise of Putin and his desire to rebuild the FSU we have seen him reaching beyond Russia's borders through both direct and indirect action.  I certainly understand the view of taking care of our borders and feeding our people here at home, but I also see the long-term danger of leaving Putin's actions unchecked.

As a person with a strategic view I think my side of the argument sees the dangers as far more pressing and concerning than just territory lost in Ukraine.  The second and third order effects destabilize everything and yes I think it emboldens Putin to go further.  Energy markets, the world's food supply and a land war in Europe are not trivial matters to be ignored.

One of the biggest mistakes we make as Americans is we tend to think our adversaries will act rationally as we would.  Of course Putin wouldn't invade invade Poland, that would be foolish, right?  Putin is a dictator, a ruthless one and if you step back and look at the things he is willing to do (employing chemical and radioactive material ON NATO SOIL, genocide, taking territory by force), it is not a stretch to think he might make other actions that we would consider irrational. 

Bullies respond to force and the tougher we make the fight in Ukraine for Putin I believe the lower the chance Putin takes aggressive action elsewhere.

I agree with everything you said. Except, I have never claimed to be an isolationist, nor have I ever stated any isolationist ideals here.  I simply posted a marginally humorous gif and Lawman responded with his normal diatribe, and so I felt compelled to respond. I just figured he might need reminded why the half of the US, that he accused of “wanting to give the keys of Eastern Europe to Putin” of might not be as emotionally invested in Ukraine as he is.  The simple fact that very many low income US citizens can’t find a place to rent, because Uncle Sam is currently paying out the ass to stuff illegal aliens in any imaginable rental property and continues incentivizing non-citizen, non-tax paying, people to come here and enjoy some more free shit!  So yeah, many Americans find these policies downright treasonous, and the threat of Putin doesn’t seem that dire while a working family, of US citizens, lives in their car while their former home is rented to some Guatemalans. That and of course, the US lending money to anyone feels like paying the bum on the corner with your credit card, at this point. 

[Lawman]

I agree with everything you said. Except, I have never claimed to be an isolationist, nor have I ever stated any isolationist ideals here.  I simply posted a marginally humorous gif and Lawman responded with his normal diatribe, and so I felt compelled to respond. I just figured he might need reminded why the half of the US, that he accused of “wanting to give the keys of Eastern Europe to Putin” of might not be as emotionally invested in Ukraine as he is.  The simple fact that very many low income US citizens can’t find a place to rent, because Uncle Sam is currently paying out the ass to stuff illegal aliens in any imaginable rental property and continues incentivizing non-citizen, non-tax paying, people to come here and enjoy some more free shit!  So yeah, many Americans find these policies downright treasonous, and the threat of Putin doesn’t seem that dire while a working family, of US citizens, lives in their car while their former home is rented to some Guatemalans. That and of course, the US lending money to anyone feels like paying the bum on the corner with your credit card, at this point. 

Populist driven policy of “let the people on the other side of the ocean deal with it” has led us to the more expensive and consuming outcome of two world wars. It’s even easier to dehumanize and detach from it when some are freely buying Russian talking points.

Nobody is saying abandon the border for the sake of Ukraine in this argument. Nobody is saying send troops to Ukraine and fight directly, in fact that’s what we are all attempting to keep at arms length letting them play this out a phase line early.

What we are saying is that in this new Cold War/slow collapse of the global supply chain we sit diametrically apposed to a party made up primarily of Russia/China. One of those two major opponents to us coming out on top in this is happily feeding its military capacity into a wood chipper whole sale. We would be idiots to stop paying to put gas in it when comparing the costs of other COAs.


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[tac airlifter]

When Germany starts acting like they actually believe Russia might expand past UKR and fight NATO countries, and is willing to commit serious money to that problem, that's when you've got my interest.  However the current situation is that we're rushing to rescue Western Europe who doesn't feel threatened or inclined to break the bank investing militarily due to ann imminent Russian invasion.  At the same time we have ever more serious domestic issues.  The reply always seems to be "it's not either or, we can secure our border and the borders of Ukraine" except we can't, or we already would have. 
 

No love for Russia here, but I 100% believe our over-investment in Ukraine is strategically foolish.  CH, I get your point on pre-WW2 isolationists, but I am unconvinced Russia is analogous to Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.  It looks like a regional dispute to me.  And instead of engaging in thoughtful discussion to convince me, the prevailing approach is to bully me by claiming I'm parroting Putin talking points like a stooge.  If Covid has taught us anything, it's that people yelling thoughtless demands and name-calling must be ignored.  

[frog]

13 hours ago, SocialD said:

I really like to boil it down to who is the bigger douche canoe.  In this scenario, Russia is the biggest douche canoe of them all.  They’re the lead rower in said douche canoe.  I don't like douche canoes, much less the lead rower.  This is a pretty good platform in which to build a rock solid foreign policy plan and national defense strategy.  

Nailed it. This really isn’t that hard. Russia is in the wrong regardless of Bashi’s affinity for “historical ties” and Putin’s dong. The only question is how much the U.S. can/should afford to invest in flipping said douche canoe over. Zero is a reasonable answer because we are spending ourselves to death, but it shouldn’t be difficult to agree that a strong and expanding Russia is not in the best interest of the U.S. 

[Lawman]

When Germany starts acting like they actually believe Russia might expand past UKR and fight NATO countries, and is willing to commit serious money to that problem, that's when you've got my interest.  However the current situation is that we're rushing to rescue Western Europe who doesn't feel threatened or inclined to break the bank investing militarily due to ann imminent Russian invasion.  At the same time we have ever more serious domestic issues.  The reply always seems to be "it's not either or, we can secure our border and the borders of Ukraine" except we can't, or we already would have. 
 
No love for Russia here, but I 100% believe our over-investment in Ukraine is strategically foolish.  CH, I get your point on pre-WW2 isolationists, but I am unconvinced Russia is analogous to Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.  It looks like a regional dispute to me.  And instead of engaging in thoughtful discussion to convince me, the prevailing approach is to bully me by claiming I'm parroting Putin talking points like a stooge.  If Covid has taught us anything, it's that people yelling thoughtless demands and name-calling must be ignored.  

Europe has spent a combined 91 billion in monetary aid to Ukraine and while short of the 2% mark Germany pushed its military budget up a couple billion (largest increase in a half century) in a single year in the midst of 3 straight quarters of a recession. France cranked in its largest increase in decades, Poland is spending nearly 4% of its GDP and outfitting its self with our latest stuff (economic gain to us). These are just a few examples of what is and has been a wider immediate wake up call to reality for them. It’s disingenuous to imply we are going it alone here.

So what exactly is the threshold Europe has to meet for us to be allowed to get off the bench? Because the EU has roughly half the GDP combined we do and they aren’t simply letting us come to their rescue.


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[O Face]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

Nobody is saying abandon the border for the sake of Ukraine in this argument. 

That is more or less exactly what was said in Congress last week.  

 

Look Bud, I love that you’re passionate about Ukraine. I like that you’re hanging out with Polish Generals. I’m certain your current job offers plenty of insight on the conflict that most don’t have. Having said that, maybe next time you’re home and your trip to Walmart costs 4 times what it did a few years ago, or bounce around to our once thriving metro areas and witness the epic nosedive into 3rd world cesspools, you might just gain a little understanding on why so many of us deplorables are slightly hesitant to donate even more of our great grandchildren’s inheritance to Zelensky and pals. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by O Face
.

[Lawman]

I agree with you. However, maybe some of the people on the other side of the ocean could deal with it a little harder too. (Germany) or hell how about on our side of the ocean (Canada). 
Look Bud, I love that you’re passionate about Ukraine. I like that you’re hanging out with Polish Generals. I’m certain your current job offers plenty of insight on the conflict that most don’t have. Having said that, maybe next time you’re home and your trip to Walmart costs 4 times what it did a few years ago, or bounce around to our once thriving metro areas and witness the epic nosedive into 3rd world cesspools, you might just gain a little understanding on why so many of us deplorables are slightly hesitant to donate our great grandchildren’s inheritance to Zelensky and pals. 

Look at the post directly above this one.

Like I said treating this like we are throwing money and telling our people to eat shoe leather while the Euros enjoy vacations, wine, and siestas is disingenuous to the reality of what spending they’ve done. The US growth has outpaced the EU substantially since the last decade and the housing crises/recession passed. Without England in it we outpace the EU by double in GDP. They still produced tens of billions of dollars for Ukrainian funding/aid as well as investment in military infrastructure largely purchased directly from us which is good both economically and in terms of commonality in a future fight.

It’s easy to just pick on Germany as the punching bag example of how not to invest in a military for the last 30+ years. Even they went up a couple billion in the span of a year while their total government spending went down almost 8-10% (depends on source of exchange rates) because of the economic slowdown down in their own country, that’s a pretty massive change for them with the stated goal to continue cranking up.


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[Stoker]

The good news for those of you worried about the (tiny fraction of the) debt imposed on your children due to Ukraine spending is that, if we just let the Russians roll over Ukraine and a few other countries, your kids won't need to worry about the debt, because they'll be too worried about dying in a conflict with Putin's successor when he invades the Baltics or Poland.

Deterrence is always much cheaper than the inevitable fight after appeasement.

[Lawman]

The good news for those of you worried about the (tiny fraction of the) debt imposed on your children due to Ukraine spending is that, if we just let the Russians roll over Ukraine and a few other countries, your kids won't need to worry about the debt, because they'll be too worried about dying in a conflict with Putin's successor when he invades the Baltics or Poland.
Deterrence is always much cheaper than the inevitable fight after appeasement.

Don’t worry, the debt resets to O after the EMPs go off. It’s a feature of the plan.


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[O Face]

Actually, I did. After I posted it. Then I edited it to not be redundant. I still don’t quite correlate Germany’s spending on their own military to being equal to us giving away billions. However, if you and I could agree that spending billions of US dollars on our own military equipment and deploying it to the US southern border, was also good for Ukraine, well then I think we are finally getting somewhere. 

9 minutes ago, Lawman said:

Look at the post directly above this one.

Like I said treating this like we are throwing money and telling our people to eat shoe leather while the Euros enjoy vacations, wine, and siesta s is disingenuous to the reality of what spending they’ve done.

It’s easy to just pick on Germany as the punching bag example of how not to invest in a military, but even they went up a couple billion in the span of a year while their total government spending went down almost 8-10% (depends on source of exchange rates) because of the economic slowdown down in their own country, that’s a pretty massive change for them with the stated goal to continue cranking up.


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Edited December 13, 2023 by O Face

[Lawman]

Actually, I did. After I posted it. Then I edited it to not be redundant. I still don’t quite correlate Germany’s spending on their own military to being equal to us giving away billions. However, if you and I could agree that spending billions of US dollars on our own military equipment and deploying it to the US southern border, was also good for Ukraine, well then I think we are finally getting somewhere. 
ilitary

No I don’t think spending billions on a military to deploy it to our border is a smart financial investment at all.

The cost to outfit and equip the soldiers we send down there far outstrips the cost effectiveness of a body on the border. Now expanding an agency like CBP/Coast Guard/port control absolutely. Using the Army to be CBP or those other functions when I now cost the drain to regular unit readiness, lower enlistment rates, all the kit we issue in RFI, etc etc…hell no.

There are far smarter ways to effectively work on the issue of the border and most of it involves law enforcement and thinks like going after employers, two things the military is wholly unsuited for. Unfortunately the Army (particularly the reserves/guard) have become a political easy button for it with no regard to long term cost.


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[O Face]

1 minute ago, Lawman said:

No I don’t think spending billions on a military to deploy it to our border is a smart financial investment at all.

The cost to outfit and equip the soldiers we send down there far outstrips the cost effectiveness of a body on the border. Now expanding an agency like CBP/Coast Guard/port control absolutely. Using the Army to be CBP or those other functions when I now cost the drain to regular unit readiness, lower enlistment rates, all the kit we issue in RFI, etc etc…hell no.

There are far smarter ways to effectively work on the issue of the border and most of it involves law enforcement and thinks like going after employers, two things the military is wholly unsuited for. Unfortunately the Army (particularly the reserves/guard) have become a political easy button for it with no regard to long term cost.


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Couldn’t agree more. Could we also include enforcing our own federal laws too?  My post was more tongue in cheek dig at Germany.