20 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

Russia is providing intel to Iran to target the US Military.

Everyone forgets how much support the Soviets gave North Korea and North Vietnam to include Soviet troops participating in combat operations against us in those wars.

Let’s not forget how the French Embassy in Hanoi gave intel also.

15 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Ugh. John is a great dude but man am I tired of everyone trying to be an influencer.

He has 459,000 followers 🤷‍♂️

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

He has 459,000 followers 🤷‍♂️

He does indeed. And unfortunately that doesn't really mean much. He could have 10 million followers like some of the bigger science YouTubers, and it still wouldn't matter. It's all about ad prints. Don't get me wrong, there aren't many people I would rate higher as a friend, co-worker, or all around bro then John.

I have another friend who makes about $50,000 a month on YouTube. All he posts are reaction videos of him watching videos of women doing or saying stupid shit while he overlays an incel/misogynist narrative with goofy sound effects included. It's the most cringy, immature shit imaginable. And he absolutely despises his followers, just like he despises the alpha male, diet-Andrew-Tate persona he puts on to make these videos, two a day, 5 days a week. Funnily enough, he's actually a pussy whipped bitch if you ever see him around his wife, but online he's a perfectly manicured toxic male.

The algorithm cares only about engagement, and nothing drives engagement better than rage, jealousy, and inadequacy. It's also just wildly unproductive for society for someone as talented and driven as John to waste even 5 seconds of his time making YouTube more money 🤷🏻‍♂️

The market is getting fucked this week based on oil spikes.

This is going to be an economic, social, and military disaster.

On 3/5/2026 at 10:05 PM, Boomer6 said:

I actually have no doubt that it will be known for sure by the IC, and suspect it is already known. Whether the facts come to light after the war or the pilot is quietly disappeared only time will tell.

Probably

What would / could we do if it was disclosed?

Rhetorical and just putting myself into the shoes of US leadership right now, I’d probably suppress it.

If any of the crew were killed, different story. I know one of the crew was injured on ejection (ejection itself has physical consequences too), I’d tell the Kuwaitis to be prepared to quietly and amply compensate them after hostilities are over.

The primary objective is to win the war, military operation, collapse the regime, etc… I hate it, it is morally compromising and not a good but necessary thing for where we are now.

Edited Monday at 04:57 PM2 days by Clark Griswold

Here is what Mr Trump thinks of you, your service, sacrifice, and your life should it end with his actions; a promotional appearance to sell hats.

15 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

The market is getting fucked this week based on oil spikes.

Ah yes, the hardcore fucking of a... **checks markets**... 4% drawdown. From astronomical highs.

6 hours ago, gearhog said:

This is going to be an economic, social, and military disaster.

Like the economic disaster from Ukraine? Or the social catastrophe that followed Maduro's capture? Or the military disaster of the summer attacks on Iran?

How many times does the philosophy have to be wrong before you question the philosophy itself?

Considering post kinetic outcomes, bad cases, decent short read

War on the Rocks

A Worst-Case Scenario for the War with Iran

The war with Iran has prompted many questions about what comes next. Will the Islamic Republic regime survive? What could replace it? Will Iran dissolve

On 3/9/2026 at 12:26 PM, Lord Ratner said:

Ah yes, the hardcore fucking of a... **checks markets**... 4% drawdown. From astronomical highs.

Like the economic disaster from Ukraine? Or the social catastrophe that followed Maduro's capture? Or the military disaster of the summer attacks on Iran?

How many times does the philosophy have to be wrong before you question the philosophy itself?

Dude you post this like we’re out of the woods already, except:

-Iran is striking civilian oil tankers as we speak

-regime is not changed, in fact we now have a more hardline ayatollah in charge with nothing to live for but revenge

-if midnight hammer was such a glowing success why are we back here doing the same shit 6 months later

-nuclear material is still not secured (and probably won’t ever be without a catastrophic boots on the ground op)

-regime is now backed into a corner in survival mode where their only real move left is terrorism, attacking soft target civilian infrastructure, and even more severe internal repression

-trump admin has signaled off ramps now multiple times and the Iranian regime isn’t backing down

-no discernible plan on our end other than to just keep blowing stuff up

And none of this is to say the boys aren’t doing amazing work over there right now. They are. But wrecking shit was never our weakness, it’s having any semblance of a plan for what comes next

2 minutes ago, Pooter said:

-Iran is striking civilian oil tankers as we speak

True. What's making a real dent in the oil market...is it the actual loss of oil, or the perception of loss? Not saying it doesn't hurt, but the bounce back will be faster than we think, at least in the USA. Moreover, the USA doesn't need anyone else's oil. The only people severely hurt by this are Russia and China, and even with that it'll be shorter lived than any pundit will acknowledge.

3 minutes ago, Pooter said:

-regime is not changed, in fact we now have a more hardline ayatollah in charge with nothing to live for but revenge

-nuclear material is still not secured (and probably won’t ever be without a catastrophic boots on the ground op)

-regime is now backed into a corner in survival mode where their only real move left is terrorism, attacking soft target civilian infrastructure, and even more severe internal repression

We backed a small dog into a corner. Oh no. Their capabilities are insignificant. They'll try, but it will be feeble at best. Their much vaunted Navy of missile destroyers was bodied in a single day. Not that they can't hit, just that they can't actually hit hard. The biggest actual question mark is whatever sleep cells they have in the wind.

8 minutes ago, Pooter said:

-if midnight hammer was such a glowing success why are we back here doing the same shit 6 months later

That op targeted the hardware that man men were using to try and hold their adversaries (mostly middle eastern countries) at threat. They didn't stop, so now we've targeted the mad men themselves.

9 minutes ago, Pooter said:

-trump admin has signaled off ramps now multiple times and the Iranian regime isn’t backing down

-no discernible plan on our end other than to just keep blowing stuff up

You mean that we're in the middle of an active shooting war and our wild-card of a CinC isn't showing all his cards? Weird. It's almost like that's how he's operated every single time in the past. Definitely time to panic.
There is clearly a ground element to this game (spelled in part 'Kurdish'), and I guarantee that it's been in the works for a while now. This is a long game that involves a LOT more players than the US and Iran.
Critiquing the man in the arena while the swords are actively swinging is a game played by fools and universally leads to incorrect conclusions.
Let it play out.

Edited 6 hours ago6 hr by FourFans

@FourFans disagree on all points.

-the Iranian navy was not “much vaunted” to anyone except the Iranian regime. now that we’re in this stupid boondoggle I’m happy to see it decimated, but I’m not particularly impressed that we could do it. Like I said I never had any doubt in our abilities to wreck shit.. but what is the plan now?

-a small dog cornered can still do a lot of damage especially in their own back yard. And they’ll be hell bent on rebuilding with the express purpose of getting revenge. Has Middle East insurgent math just flown right past all your heads all these years? When you whack the top guy in a government and bomb everything to shit, it doesn’t just stop being a problem. You create a power vacuum where often the most violent and radical people then take over. Hmmm wonder if we’ve ever seen this before 🤔

-trump isn’t holding his cards close to disguise some 4-d chess plan. There is no plan. We are making this shit up as we go. Rubio and Johnson already accidentally admitted we got pulled into this by Israel who was gonna go with or without us, and WH and mil staff are now leaking trump is getting frustrated that this thing hasn’t wrapped up already. He’s the one offering off ramps to Iran and they are choosing not to take them.

-lastly I think it’s perfectly within bounds to criticize foreign policy as it’s happening. I’m far more “in the arena” than trump ever has been or ever will be, so I don’t accept your “let it play out” suggestion. It’s our asses on the line and time away from our families to go fight the war of choice that trump explicitly campaigned against. And as with the rest of our middle eastern boondoggles this one looks like it’s going to drag on far longer than we initially intended and result in tons of money spent for negligible gain

2 hours ago, Pooter said:

Dude you post this like we’re out of the woods already, except:

-Iran is striking civilian oil tankers as we speak

-regime is not changed, in fact we now have a more hardline ayatollah in charge with nothing to live for but revenge

-if midnight hammer was such a glowing success why are we back here doing the same shit 6 months later

-nuclear material is still not secured (and probably won’t ever be without a catastrophic boots on the ground op)

-regime is now backed into a corner in survival mode where their only real move left is terrorism, attacking soft target civilian infrastructure, and even more severe internal repression

-trump admin has signaled off ramps now multiple times and the Iranian regime isn’t backing down

-no discernible plan on our end other than to just keep blowing stuff up

And none of this is to say the boys aren’t doing amazing work over there right now. They are. But wrecking shit was never our weakness, it’s having any semblance of a plan for what comes next

Agreed, but the same logic applies. Forecasts of doom and chaos are worthless when the doom and chaos never comes.

Your entire point is hypothetical. Maybe you'll be right. But so far the anti-interventionists have been wrong on basically every single Trump engagement, especially WRT Iran. And they can't spell out exactly how this goes sideways. What, we get another Islamo-fascist regime, but with no credibility or military might left by which to threaten the world? Oil goes up because the production of a country viral to our biggest enemy (China) was squashed and the American energy complex gets more money and power?

That doesn't mean you should keep quiet. It just means there's not yet any reason to believe the sky-is-falling crowd.

If we send in the infantry, I'll happily be the first to agree with you. As of yet there's no evidence we're planning that, and you can't hide troop movements like that. Too many people are still shell shocked from the failures of Afghanistan/Iraq that they are conflating all military intervention with nation-building.

Now, if we send in the men with beards to capture and control Kharg Island, all the better. The message is pretty clear to anyone who is listening. Fuck with the US, and we will take your stuff and kill you.

I for one am a big fan of that message. If my neighbor woke up every morning and threw rocks at my wife and kids while they left for school, promising to rape and murder them when they got home, I'd light his house on fire and execute him as he fled the flames.

Im with you Lord Ratner.

14 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I for one am a big fan of that message. If my neighbor woke up every morning and threw rocks at my wife and kids while they left for school, promising to rape and murder them when they got home, I'd light his house on fire and execute him as he fled the flames.

The problem is you didn’t execute his whole family, so years later his son puts a car bomb on your wife’s car and kills either her or both of you.

25 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

The problem is you didn’t execute his whole family, so years later his son puts a car bomb on your wife’s car and kills either her or both of you.

That's life. We don't do nothing never we can't do everything.

This isn't a Iraq, a country that was by and large doing nothing to the United States in the early 2000s. This is Iran, the country that has been actively and perniciously attacking us for decades.

If your analogy holds, and the children of the Ayatollah attempt revenge, how is that materially different?

In this case, the worst case scenario is the status quo. It's just not the same as the forever wars we were used to.

@Lord Ratner

You’re correct that the sky isn’t falling, but to me that’s kinda the most key insight. Unless we have another 9/11 god forbid, these boondoggles never feel like the sky is falling at the time. They’re an incremental forward march of tit for tat strikes, dick measuring, and reprisals that get us entangled in these things for the long run. It’s hard to sniff out as it’s happening because we can get easily distracted by our dope ass military fucking shit up (admittedly awesome.) It’s much easier with the clarity 20 years of hindsight provides to see that Iraq/afghanistan were an exercise in futility.

I genuinely hope this is wrapped up quick and I’m eating crow with you guys telling me I told you so on here in a few days.

There talking points are hilarious.

Prices of oil reflect global demand on a global market that essentially everyone can play in relatively easily. So if China and Russia lose oil flows from Iran, it will absolutely end up increasing the cost of US oil based on their ability to pay for the same oil that we want. Supply and demand baby. It’s why the US, which uses no Iranian oil TODAY is still subject to the same $100 BBL costs everyone else is. It’s a global market - I guarantee Texas oil folks are going to export Crude to China if they’re paying $20 per barrel more. Turns out oil folks just care about money.

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

This isn't an Iraq, a country that was by and large doing nothing to the United States in the early 2000s. This is Iran, the country that has been actively and perniciously attacking us for decades.

Hindsight is 20-20, eh? Our national security council at the time definitely would have argued that Iraq was partially to blame for 9/11 and was supportive of WMD plots to attack Israel and the US. We had been in 13 years of constant operations over Iraq, because they were actively and pernicious attacking us - definitely doing the same things Iran has been and we would have the exact same narrative.

Also, we probably created 1000 martyrs alone with the US killing of the 150-175 school girls. You remember ISIS right?

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

I genuinely hope this is wrapped up quick

Entirely agree.

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

They’re an incremental forward march of tit for tat strikes, dick measuring, and reprisals that get us entangled in these things for the long run.

Unfortunately that's basically a carbon copy of the definition of "International relations" (a.k.a. countries screwing over other countries). All that stuff never really goes away, it just moves from the battlefield to the diplomat's office and the stock exchanges...which is where I'd prefer it stay. My hope here is that our government stands by it's declaration that we won't be sending in conventional ground forces. If they do try to commit conventional troops, I think we can expect a significant uproar from every vet who served over the last 20 years, myself included. Short of that, I've seen enough of our strategic level to know that what the rank-and-file as well as the American public are seeing is either psyops or cloaked information at this stage in the game. We won't get to know what the full game plan was (or was not) until all the books are written in 20 years. Before that, to the trained eye, this op has many markers for an executed-as-planned campaign when compared with Iraq and Afghanistan.
Some easy markers I see:

• Pakistan, Iraq, Syria are all playing along and even engaging directly in support

• No countries in the region have opposed or restricted US ops

• Trump actually when on record with an expected timeline (never done by Obama, Bush Jr, or even Bush Sr with Desert Shield)

• Cooperation and engagement from Allied countries AFTER the shooting started. Again, historically not normal in conflicts like this

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by FourFans

14 minutes ago, Negat0ry said:

Prices of oil reflect global demand on a global market that essentially everyone can play in relatively easily. So if China and Russia lose oil flows from Iran, it will absolutely end up increasing the cost of US oil based on their ability to pay for the same oil that we want. Supply and demand baby. It’s why the US, which uses no Iranian oil TODAY is still subject to the same $100 BBL costs everyone else is. It’s a global market - I guarantee Texas oil folks are going to export Crude to China if they’re paying $20 per barrel more. Turns out oil folks just care about money.

Yes that's exactly the point.

If you're France, any increase in the price of a barrel of oil is bad. They produce practically nothing, so they exist as a pure consumer.

The United States is not even remotely similar. While the price of oil going up obviously increases the price of anything using that supply chain, we also have a gargantuan oil industry, and increases in oil prices are excellent for a huge parts of our economy. We've also increased our capacity to export natural gas, which becomes more valuable internationally when the price of oil goes up.

I also have to point out that your understanding of the oil industry is fairly juvenile if you think that there's just one oil price.

17 minutes ago, Negat0ry said:

It’s why the US, which uses no Iranian oil TODAY is still subject to the same $100 BBL costs everyone else is.

Just because the price on the news is $100 per barrel does not mean that's what everybody is paying, or buying, or refining. It's not the dumbest thing I've heard, but it's pretty dumb.

He’s getting defensive and taking things out of context, kinda embarrassing. You should know by now that by the time you’ve gone ad hominem you’ve already lost.

Never said that there was literally only one oil price - in fact when you reread my words you’ll see I explicitly gave an example in which there is more than one price in the market. Never said that $100 futures meant anything specific, either. You okay, buddy?

Also I love your “excellent” idea about how to spin this. Never realized - until you came along - you can boost the US economy by decreasing oil supply so that we can sell more natural gas. Absolute genius here - I think you’re qualified for a cabinet position!