China creates new air defense zone in East China Sea

[Lawman]

That is precisely the point. Even with boots on the ground and people dying, we were über sensitive to not involving China or the Soviets, despite their direct contributions to our enemy. We lost American lives in both wars because we were afraid to take actions we thought would draw the Chinese into the fight. Now they have substantially more technology/firepower, we depend on each other for daily life, and Chairman Mao is fading into history...and we are going to go to war? No ######in way.

But there are a lot more levels to war then full up open conflict war.

I see what China is doing in japan a lot like what the Soviets did in Cuba. They sense (and probably rightly so) that we have a president who will back down when bullied by the big bet at the poker table and an American people who will do anything to avoid another war.

Look at the amount of trouble we went through to avoid being the driving force decision makers behind action in Libya or the back peddling from the Red Lines that ended up not being Red lines in Syria.

They see what Kruzchev saw in Kennedy a weak man with no real resolve more concerned in being liked than making hard decisions. Kruzchev was wrong in Kennedy but he was going off of not having the benefit to watch him be pushed into a corner. The Chinese have he luxury of seeing Obama act the opposite way when pressured. They don't think we will call so they are bullying us off the table with the big bet. Problem would be if Japan and them start slinging rocks over the issue are we gonna abandon our Ally and just pack our stuff and go home.

[Prozac]

Wait, wut? The USA imports 6+ million barrels per day. Importing 1/3 of our daily oil needs hardly qualifies as self-sufficient.

Not that simple. Don't just look at oil. Overall, we are (or are about to become, depending on who you ask) a net energy exporter.

[Vertigo]

Wait, wut? The USA imports 6+ million barrels per day. Importing 1/3 of our daily oil needs hardly qualifies as self-sufficient.

The last couple of years we have been a net exporter of fuel oil.

[ClearedHot]

Wait, wut? The USA imports 6+ million barrels per day. Importing 1/3 of our daily oil needs hardly qualifies as self-sufficient.

Peel the onion back a bit...As Vertigo pointed out we have been exporting certain types of oil (there are actually many), for years. Thanks to Fracking and a few other technologies, U.S. production has topped Russia as the largest in the world. With regard to crude oil we are on path to be completely self-sufficient around 2020. As I stated earlier, according to the the EIA, in the aggregate, Monthly crude oil production exceeded US crude oil imports by October.

I recently sat next to a senior oil executive on a VERY long flight and it was his opinion that we will be there much sooner, especially if the Project 20KTM technology comes to fruition. The real impediment is regulation, both environmental and more unknown, laws that prevent the U.S. from exporting many types of oil.

[czecksikhs]

I don't want to get the thread too far off track, but I don't think competition for oil resources with China/India will be as mitigated as you think. We export distillate fuel oil to the tune of ~1 million barrels per day, but that is more a function of having a large refining capacity and not an excess of oil production domestically. I would venture that most of the distillate fuel oil is heavier heating oil, and not diesel, either. We end up with more refined fuel products than we need domestically, but we still import ~1/3 of our oil requirements.

The CNBC article CH posted reminds us we still import 8 mbpd. Are there another 8 Bakkens sitting around the US, just waiting to go into production to meet our current energy needs? Fracking has bought us a spike in production for sure, but even the best-producing fracked wells' production falls off 50+%/yr.

Like CH mentioned, China is throwing money around securing long-term contracts for resources all over the place. I have a feeling they are way ahead of us on this front while we are jerking ourselves off talking about how we will be the next Saudi Arabia.

[ClearedHot]

Are there another 8 Bakkens sitting around the US, just waiting to go into production to meet our current energy needs?

Yes and by 2020, we will be producing it along with all the other energy we have at our disposal...China meanwhile will be searching for oil, resources, and energy to import.

[FlyinGrunt]

Guys, there's another historic parallel I think that merits discussion: the run-up to WWI.

Factor 1: Regional competition between great powers, spilling over into global competition for resources - in the form of colonialism, supporting rapid industrial and technological advancement. Fewer players at the table this time, and there is no outright colonization going on, but seriously, the parallels are scary.

Factor 2 (and even more scary): a system of entangling alliances and treaty commitments. Given, the web in Western and Central Europe was way crazier than just the USA-Japan-Phillipines - etc vs China, but CH already hit on it: while the US and China have no interest in war, don't underestimate the possibility of us getting dragged into things if shots get fired at Japan. Germany wasn't exactly fired up about defending Austro-Hungarian stupidity, and they were caught somewhat off-guard by the Russian intervention on behalf of Serbia . . . to say nothing of France jumping in with the Russians after having been crushed by them less than 100 years earlier.

Factor 3, and this is something all too clear from the Cold War: War isn't some predictable, sterile game. Things escalate quickly when the rounds are flying, and in today's world of advanced weaponry, I think the possibility for things getting out of hand quickly is serious. The US and USSR had a number of such close calls. Don't think China will be any different.

Factor 4, and I'll stop here: Just like the Soviet Politburo or the German imperial government, nations are NOT unitary actors. All it takes is a Curtis LeMay, Sergei Lavrov, Wilhelm II, or similar hawk to sway the key players at the policy meeting, and then you've got a full-scale escalation on your hands. It happened during the Hungarian Revolution, it came within inches during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and it was avoided by cooler heads when MacArthur got fired in Korea and Able Archer got scaled back in the 1980s.

If we (and our allies/adversaries) don't keep a cool head and the diplomatic channels open, history WILL repeat itself.

[ClearedHot]

But there are a lot more levels to war then full up open conflict war.

Exactly...Do I think we will see a force on force land war...no, but we will most certainly scrap in a way that will cause a lot of chaos.

Yes out two economies are intertwined, and yes a conflict would do damage to both countries on many levels...that being said logic is often overcome by nationalism and bravado, history has proven that time and time again and I fear there is a greater chance that it will happen than it won't.

Whatever it is, I hope it is quick and we bloody their nose just enough to keep them in check.

[AnimalMother]

Whoa, I had to double check my web address, thought I had logged into my International relations online class for a second here. If people would just add citations to their posts they could get actual masters credit for this thread.

I think the Chinese will draw first blood when/if the renminbi goes on the gold standard, but I think it is highly likely. This will drastically alter the dynamics of the global economy and irrevocably damage US interests. No shooting required. I don't think china is stupid enough to go force on force with us, not without stacking the deck in their favor anyway, and even then, I think they realize that their military efforts would be much more valuable elsewhere...

[waveshaper]

I subscribe to the theory that before any of the future inevitable minor dustups between US and China escalate into the full blown conventional war everyone seems to fear, the lights will first go out in China. While the US military may not appear to be overwhelmingly successful in fighting limited wars, insurgencies, and nation building, everyone on the planet knows no one can go toe-to-toe with the US in an all out brawl today. However, I think our true military strengths are quickly becoming invisible. It's no longer taking decades for technology to fundamentally change the way we wage conflict. We can achieve some things with keystrokes what previously required kinetic operations a few years ago. If we can just make it through the next few years, I think we'll see conventional military conflict as a last ditch stop gap for wars conducted electronically between two technologically advanced countries... sort of like a bayonet on an M-16. I think the notion of war is changing faster than we realize, and we're well ahead of China.

Proceed with caution. I seem to remember (way back when) the USAF pushing to remove gun systems from fighter aircraft in the late 1950's/1960's. Who needs guns for air to air combat when we have all these new advanced air to air missiles.

A famous quote from one of the USAF finest and most respected aviators; Quote "A fighter without a gun is like an airplane without a wing".

[waveshaper]

Some history on these disputed islands. China had historical sovereignty over the Penghu Islands (Pescadores) and Taiwan, along with the nearby Diaoyu Islands, before losing them to Japan during the 1894 Sino-Japanese War, which saw the Qing fleet annihilated by Japans navy.

Japan brought these annexed territories under the jurisdiction of Okinawa Prefecture, where they remained until the Empire of Japan was defeated by the Allies in 1945. The Potsdam Declaration determining the terms of Japans surrender signed by the Allies in July 1945, reiterated as binding the terms set in Cairo. China believes that the Diaoyu Islands should automatically have been restored to China, and the Japanese occupation of Diaoyu Islands since 1895 was nothing but a robbery.

[SurelySerious]

U.S. Flies B-52s Into China's New Air Defense Zone

http://on.wsj.com/Ifp6qd

Your move, China.

[JS]

Yes out two economies are intertwined, and yes a conflict would do damage to both countries on many levels...that being said logic is often overcome by nationalism and bravado, history has proven that time and time again and I fear there is a greater chance that it will happen than it won't.

.

I used to have an article that I used for a paper that discussed this. I think it was from the Economist, 2005 timeframe, but I can't find it. Anyway, the article went through, in great detail, how intertwined the economies of pre-WWII Germany and Japan were with the rest of Europe and the US. It was really a stunning article that I had no idea about in all my WWII readings. I can't recall the exact numbers, because they were in 1930s millions, but the overall percentage of Germany and Japan's economy that was based on international trade with the US and Western Europe was staggering pre-WWII.

In my list of 10 reasons why China does not want war with the US, the intertwined economies would probably rank 10th. Still a factor, but definitely overshadowed by regime survival, quest for resources, power, and respect, bravado, cultural clashes and bad history with Japan, etc.

[waveshaper]

Another strange twist, if true; These disputed island up until 1978 (?) had been designated as an active US bombing and gunnery range. The range utilization is covered under the US/Japan SOFA Agreement, the range use appears to still be a valid/active agreement item as of this year.

Highlights of article; The Japanese Ministry of Defense, since 1972, has been leasing Kuba to the US military as a bombing range along with Taisho. Although both islands have not been used by the US military since 1978, and Article II (3) of SOFA states that “The facilities and areas used by the United States armed forces shall be returned to Japan whenever they are no longer needed for purposes of this Agreement”, they have not yet been returned to Japan. Neither Tokyo nor Washington has explained the reason why the islands are still allocated for use by the US military. Japanese citizens cannot land on either island without first obtaining permission from the US military. The fact that the United States still manages the two islands implies that the United States itself is another actor in the Senkaku dispute.

http://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/private/apb205.pdf

[Vertigo]

I used to have an article that I used for a paper that discussed this. I think it was from the Economist, 2005 timeframe, but I can't find it. Anyway, the article went through, in great detail, how intertwined the economies of pre-WWII Germany and Japan were with the rest of Europe and the US. It was really a stunning article that I had no idea about in all my WWII readings. I can't recall the exact numbers, because they were in 1930s millions, but the overall percentage of Germany and Japan's economy that was based on international trade with the US and Western Europe was staggering pre-WWII.

In my list of 10 reasons why China does not want war with the US, the intertwined economies would probably rank 10th. Still a factor, but definitely overshadowed by regime survival, quest for resources, power, and respect, bravado, cultural clashes and bad history with Japan, etc.

Japan isn't a surprise. Consider they have very limited natural resources and relied heavily on trade with the U.S. and European colonies to fuel their booming industrial economy.

Throw in Roosevelt, who disliked the Japanese, and his economic sanctions and trade embargoes on Japan... it's easy to understand why they attacked us. You back them into a corner and cut off their lifeline the only other option is to strike out.

[jcj]

 

U.S. Flies B-52s Into China's New Air Defense Zone

http://on.wsj.com/Ifp6qd

Your move, China.

Also reported by NBC

http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/26/21627923-us-bombers-fly-over-disputed-island-chain-without-informing-china?chromedomain=worldnews

[Vertigo]

 

Also reported by NBC

http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/26/21627923-us-bombers-fly-over-disputed-island-chain-without-informing-china?chromedomain=worldnews

"

"Nobody is talking about the possibility of armed conflict coming out of this [ADIZ decision]," Warren said.

Apparently Col Warren doesn't check BODN.

[Top Dollar]

U.S. Flies B-52s Into China's New Air Defense Zone

http://on.wsj.com/Ifp6qd

Your move, China.

China is now deploying a carrier group to the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/world/asia/china-us-b52s/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

[08Dawg]

Operation Deny Christmas 2013, go...

[ClearedHot]

China is now deploying a carrier group to the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/world/asia/china-us-b52s/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

China is now deploying their ONLY carrier group to the region...

[JarheadBoom]

U.S. Flies B-52s Into China's New Air Defense Zone

http://on.wsj.com/Ifp6qd

Your move, China.

China is now deploying a carrier group to the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/world/asia/china-us-b52s/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

edit: format

Edited November 27, 2013 by JarheadBoom

[PapaJu]

China is now deploying a carrier group to the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/world/asia/china-us-b52s/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Wonder if the carrier even has planes on it: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130928/DEFREG/309280009/Chinese-Media-Takes-Aim-J-15-Fighter

[Milchstrasse]

NSFW: http://i.imgur.com/KNFvX8Q.gif

[ClearedHot]

Chinese reaction to the bomber flights was predictably angry, with some recalling the 2001 collision between a Chinese fighter and a U.S. surveillance plane in international airspace off China's southeastern coast — the kind of accident some fear China's new policy could make more likely. The Chinese pilot, Wang Wei, was killed in the crash and the U.S. crew forced to make a landing on China's Hainan island, where they were held for 10 days and repeatedly interrogated before being released.

"Let's not repeat the humiliation of Wang Wei. Make good preparations to counterattack," wrote Zheng Daojin, a reporter with the official Xinhua News Agency on his Twitter-like Weibo microblog.

[Day Man]

if Zheng is a "reporter" like Nancy Grace is a "reporter", I'm not sure his opinion matters...