Stop Loss For 11F

[Fuzz]

http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2012/07/13/rising-demand-for-airline-pilots-raises-safety-concerns/?intcmp=features

"An industry forecast that nearly half a million new airline pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years as airlines expand their fleets...The forecast includes 69,000 new pilots in the North America, mostly in the U.S. The greatest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, where an estimated 185,600 new pilots will be needed."

[BolterKing]

http://www.foxnews.c...intcmp=features

"An industry forecast that nearly half a million new airline pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years as airlines expand their fleets...The forecast includes 69,000 new pilots in the North America, mostly in the U.S. The greatest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, where an estimated 185,600 new pilots will be needed."

Yawn. The impending pilot shortage that's been looming for 35 years and never come to fruition.

[Homestar]

There's never been a pilot shortage, just hiring booms.

[Pancake]

Yawn. The impending pilot shortage that's been looming for 35 years and never come to fruition.

Hiring boom, pilot shortage... Who cares it's called? Either way, hiring at major/legacy airlines is going spike within the next 12 months. Those at the front of the wave are going to have very lucrative and secure careers.

BTW, that "Yawn" thing is stale. It was funny a couple of thousand posts ago. No matter how hard you try, it's an internet forum board... there are no cool kids here.

Edited July 14, 2012 by Pancake

[Danny Noonin]

hiring at major/legacy airlines is going spike within the next 12 months. Those at the front of the wave are going to have very lucrative and secure careers.

That's funny. Sounds like EXACTLY the same things guys were saying in the mid to late 90s. Damn near word for word.

[RogAir]

yes

Depends. A lot of new hires are getting widebody International seats (MD-11, 777). I know widebody guys who have never done a night hub turn (the type of flying that most people think of when they think of FedEx). If you want to fly domestic, I believe it's about 60% night/40% day flying (there was a time when it was 100% night flying, and thus the stereotype). Done both pax and cargo; cargo is the way to go.

[Danger41]

That's funny. Sounds like EXACTLY the same things guys were saying in the mid to late 90s. Damn near word for word.

IIRC, things were pretty great for the 7 letter A word types pre 9/11.

[pcola]

thought this was appropriate here:

"Wanted: 500,000 pilots"

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/48180713#48180713

edit: how the F do you embed a video (not from youtube) in this forum?

Edited July 14, 2012 by pcola

[joe1234]

It's not that there's going to be a pilot shortage. It's more like there's going to be a shortage of qualified ATP-holders willing to work for shit wages at a regional in a few years. I doubt that Delta is going to be canceling flights due to crew manning anytime soon.

[hindsight2020]

It's not that there's going to be a pilot shortage. It's more like there's going to be a shortage of qualified ATP-holders willing to work for shit wages at a regional in a few years. I doubt that Delta is going to be canceling flights due to crew manning anytime soon.

This. Though they'll boondogle the ATP thing at the regional level. That shit won't be a showstopper for those used car dealerships of a job. Regionals aren't gonna shut down for that. Maybe for gas margins, but not for the ATP. Every swinging dick with a fat pencil and a dream will ensure he/she gets that piece of paper. Come to think of it, just like AF Captains LOL They'd be racing each other to the doctoral program application site if mother blue said it was the next discriminator to keep their well-to-do income.

The hiring will be much more protracted than the current frothy expectations. No one-for-one job replacement either. There will be capacity constriction and scope will continue to be relaxed. But hey flying is neat-o so it's all good right? Bottom line, it will be lucrative for some, it won't for most. There will never be a pilot shortage for mainline jobs. Never. Cabotage and ab initio will finally put the industry to the grave before any meaningful labor leverage ever occurs. You can't outbid the hobby job crowd, if you intend on making a living that is.

All that said, is that a good enough reason to stay Blue and take it? Fuck no. Make real money, pay the bills, fly for fun. That's my conclusion after 7 years in military aviation. Good luck to those who embark on the airline race. You only live once, that's for sure.

[frog]

It's funny listening to people complain about the red tape of the Air Force and how people are evaluated and then look to the airlines for a better life. Sure, it works out great for some, but I can't imagine subjecting myself to the asinine seniority system that the airlines use. If you get picked up during the upcoming hiring boom, good for you, but you'll also be one of the first to get dropped during the next furlough. Enjoying that left seat? Good, because your airline just merged with somebody else, back to the right seat. Give yourselves some more credit and at least open up your options to flying some charter or starting a business that can use GA for travel. There are a bunch of guys out there that have made it in the airlines and have really enjoyed it, but there are even more who have had their sucked away by the seniority system. And here is the real kicker...it has nothing to do with ability, just poor timing.

I think some people really enjoy flying for the airlines, but I don't think it is the great escape that many AF pilots make it out to be.

[Danger41]

It's funny listening to people complain about the red tape of the Air Force and how people are evaluated and then look to the airlines for a better life. Sure, it works out great for some, but I can't imagine subjecting myself to the asinine seniority system that the airlines use. If you get picked up during the upcoming hiring boom, good for you, but you'll also be one of the first to get dropped during the next furlough. Enjoying that left seat? Good, because your airline just merged with somebody else, back to the right seat. Give yourselves some more credit and at least open up your options to flying some charter or starting a business that can use GA for travel. There are a bunch of guys out there that have made it in the airlines and have really enjoyed it, but there are even more who have had their sucked away by the seniority system. And here is the real kicker...it has nothing to do with ability, just poor timing.

I think some people really enjoy flying for the airlines, but I don't think it is the great escape that many AF pilots make it out to be.

Sounds familiar.

[TAMInated]

Sounds familiar.

Word.

[Danny Noonin]

IIRC, things were pretty great for the 7 letter A word types pre 9/11.

Point being, predictions aren't worth a shit in the airlines. Never have been. Maybe the economy tanks again. Maybe Iran tries to close the straits and oil prices skyrocket. Maybe one of the thousand terrorists that has wanted to blow up another transatlantic flight finally succeeds. Maybe one of the million missing MANPADS in the world shows up as a amoke trail off a boat sitting off the east end of JFK. Maybe a lot of things that could tank that industry something fierce. I'm not trying to scare anyone or tell anyone not to go to the airlines (even though I hate that job). I'm just saying that no one should be overly confident in hiring projections and no one should be confident at all in that industry providing "stability" or a "lucrative" career as some novices would predict. History proves the absolute opposite despite many time periods of "the future is bright" forecasts. The world is littered wih dudes who have had their hearts and wallets broken by the airline industry and 9/11 is only one small part of all that. The 2-3 years of glory pre-9/11 were some of the very few sweet years in the entire history of the airline pilot career field.

If you go airlines, I hope you have a long happy career free from drama. Just go in with your eyes open to reality and start saving up for a rainy day...because unfortunately the odds are that a rainy day will come for you. sts.

Edited July 14, 2012 by Danny Noonin

[Pancake]

That's funny. Sounds like EXACTLY the same things guys were saying in the mid to late 90s. Damn near word for word.

Mid-90s hiring was sparked by expansion. Attrition will drive this hiring wave.

Have you looked at the numbers? Tell me how Delta, United, etc plan to fly jets with 400-800 pilots (each airline) mandated to retire every year starting in 2014? You're right, they'll probably just park their jets.

All that said, is that a good enough reason to stay Blue and take it? ###### no. Make real money, pay the bills, fly for fun. That's my conclusion after 7 years in military aviation. Good luck to those who embark on the airline race. You only live once, that's for sure.

You're right, why work for a legacy airline when you can work at GE or Amazon (or name your fav corp) as a junior executive putting in 60-70 hours per week and make the same (or less) than a 4-year FO at Delta? Guess what, you're not going to see your kids M-F either...

[Guest]

I'm with Noonin.

I've been hearing the exact same words about the looming retirement sparking an enormous A-word pilot shortage/hiring boom for at least 20 yrs.

I have also heard more than one CSAF say he had met with all the major A-word bosses and they concluded that "even if every military aviator who can get out does so they will still need to hire another 69% more..."

I'm still waiting to see that happen.

[Pancake]

It's funny listening to people complain about the red tape of the Air Force and how people are evaluated and then look to the airlines for a better life. Sure, it works out great for some, but I can't imagine subjecting myself to the asinine seniority system that the airlines use. If you get picked up during the upcoming hiring boom, good for you, but you'll also be one of the first to get dropped during the next furlough. Enjoying that left seat? Good, because your airline just merged with somebody else, back to the right seat. Give yourselves some more credit and at least open up your options to flying some charter or starting a business that can use GA for travel. There are a bunch of guys out there that have made it in the airlines and have really enjoyed it, but there are even more who have had their sucked away by the seniority system. And here is the real kicker...it has nothing to do with ability, just poor timing.

I think some people really enjoy flying for the airlines, but I don't think it is the great escape that many AF pilots make it out to be.

My grandfather was a captain at Eastern, my dad a captain at Midwest, and I intend to do the same thing. I have a pretty good grip on how the industry works.

After blowing my GI Bill on an in-residence MBA at U of AZ and attending the higher-end job fairs, I concluded that working for "the man" would suck. Do you think red tape, favoritism, "can't do the job but gets promoted" doesn't happen at GE or Amazon or wherever? BS. And guess what, enjoy your 12 hour work days in a windowless office staring at balance sheets all day. I'll take the 4 day trip followed by 4 days at home (or even 3).

I often wonder if the airline critics on this board have checked out the retirement numbers on APC.com. I doubt it. Criticize the airline hopefulls as being naive... How about you do the math to convince me that the hiring wave won't happen?

With one exception, I've listened to dozens of separating/retiring pilots swear up and down that they won't go after a job at a major only to have them ask me where I did my ATP. I know one dude that separated and didn't do the airline thing. He went to medical school. I don't know about you, but the only thing we pilots are qualified to do other than fly (and still potentially make some serious $$), is project manager. Even then, you have to convince a company that isn't in "the know" about pilots (Amazon, GE, and Accenture are in "the know") that you are a capable leader that is competent with accounting, finance, marketing, etc... Sorry, but "Air Force pilot" doesn't carry much street cred in the non-flying corporate world.

I'm just saying that no one should be overly confident in hiring projections and no one should be confident at all in that industry providing "stability" or a "lucrative" career as some novices would predict. History proves the absolute opposite despite many time periods of "the future is bright" forecasts.

I agree, but the numbers can't be ignored (or even scoffed) either. As far as oil spiking, terrorists blowing up airplanes, etc... It's happened before (several times in fact) and will happen again. But guess what, the industry survives because business survives.

The great airline demise of 2001 had little to do with the events of 9/11. Instead, the events of 9/11 were used by airline executives as an excuse (or get out of jail free card) for horrible management. Rapid expansion, poor business models (give away the store with free luggage, meals, entertainment), and the fight for "market share" (with planned negative profit margins) put the airlines' financial viability on life support well before 4 jets were hijacked and flown in to buildings/the ground (yet people still get on airplanes). The events of 9/11 gave the airlines a badly needed excuse to void their burden of debt and accept government handouts. Scoff that all you want, but do the research first, please.

Scope? Air Wisconsin was flying 100-seat regional jets (BAe-146) for United (under United Express colors) in the late 1980s. I won't go into the nuts and bolts of the recently approved Delta contract, but scope has always been an issue (generally stands at 76 seats and is tied to number of airframes at the mainline partner). Heck, my dad lost his airline career due to poorly worded scope, but that won't to deter me from the industry.

Edited July 15, 2012 by Pancake

[BFM this]

Pancake,

I'm actually rooting for you. I am. But I think that you're cherry picking your data a little; not surprising, this is your chosen path, and you are enthusiastic.

But the question that you're failing to ask is: who is shaping this argument. Why are we seeing monthly pieces on the major news networks about the airline pilot sky falling? In a word: management. They are concerned about the following dominoes:

1) They want the reactionary Colgan legislation rolled back. They want to go back to the days of putting 22yo kids with 500t/50m in an RJ without the public paying any attention to the safety issues behind the curtain.

2) If they can pay those kids peanuts, then it becomes profitable to continue the scope fight.

3) Huge Profits! Management at the majors will continue the cycle of feast/famine/executive bonuses with the occasional strategic bankruptcy/merger in a longer term effort to raid previous contract agreements and marginalize groups like ALPA. They're winning the labor fight over the long term, we'll see short term gains in the next 10 years, but the 40year trend south will continue. And in my opinion, going back to deregulation, pilot groups had a chance to avoid a labor/mgt fight.

4) With more and more ATPs like myself sitting on the sidelines, we'll have more Regional Airline Association press releases calling for things like ab-initio programs and lifting age limits on ATPs altogether. That's what scares me.

I really think that you're set up for a smooth ride to a left seat. But I think within 25 years, you'll be shocked that the pay for that position has gained little if any ground, and you can look to your right to see why. That kid is 26yo, has a liberal arts degree, and a certificate that is restricted to that airframe, with that airline. He's got few if any solo hours in his logbook, over half of his time is in a sim, and he's happy to be there.

Edited July 14, 2012 by BFM this

[Pancake]

1) They want the reactionary Colgan legislation rolled back. They want to go back to the days of putting 22yo kids with 500t/50m in an RJ without the public paying any attention to the safety issues behind the curtain.

I agree.

2) If they can pay those kids peanuts, then it becomes profitable to continue the scope fight.

I agree. Airline executives will (should) always look for ways to legally minimize costs and maximize profits. It's their moral obligation to shareholders to generate free cash flow.

3) Huge Profits! Management at the majors will continue the cycle of feast/famine/executive bonuses with the occasional strategic bankruptcy/merger in a longer term effort to raid previous contract agreements and marginalize groups like ALPA. They're winning the labor fight over the long term, we'll see short term gains in the next 10 years, but the 40year trend south will continue. And in my opinion, going back to deregulation, pilot groups had a chance to avoid a labor/mgt fight.

I agree. Show me one single unionized industry that doesn't have labor/management "fights." I'd like to know how you quantify that management is "winning," however.

4) With more and more ATPs like myself sitting on the sidelines, we'll have more Regional Airline Association press releases calling for things like ab-initio programs and lifting age limits on ATPs altogether. That's what scares me.

Getting hired at a major isn't about ATP, company mins, etc... Either you have them or you don't. Like all jobs, getting on at a major is about making connections and having people advocate for you (some people's rationale for doing the FW/CC Exec gig). Otherwise, you're just a resume in a stack of thousands. Why don't you join me at the career fair in Vegas 1 Aug? Fed Ex, Delta, you name it, recruiting teams will all be there. In case you don't know, meeting recruiters is how you get a job at GE, Amazon, Accenture, whereever... Why should it be different for a highly sought after pilot job at a major airline?

I really think that you're set up for a smooth ride to a left seat. But I think within 25 years, you'll be shocked that the pay for that position has gained little if any ground, and you can look to your right to see why. That kid is 26yo, has a liberal arts degree, and a certificate that is restricted to that airframe, with that airline. He's got few if any solo hours in his logbook, over half of his time is in a sim, and he's happy to be there.

Delta 777 CAs were making $300/hour (2001 dollars, more spending power than today) on 9/10/01. Today they make $235/hour (about $250K per year). I'm aware the industry is in decline in that regard (I wonder how financially lucrative "medical doctor" will be in a few years). Tell me where I can make that while working a maximum of 100 hours per month. Sure, you're gone from home a few days a week, but show me an equivalent salaried job that *works* only 100 hours per month, doesn't travel, and is home every night at 5 to coach football. I'm going after the airline gig not for money, but for the lifestyle. I'd rather be there to coach 2 days a week than never! Sure, I could make more money... if I sold my life and family to some salaried corporate job... And don't get me going on "starting your own business."

Numbers are numbers. I haven't sugar coated or cherry-picked any of them. Heck, I may never fly for a major, but I think the risk of not getting hired is much smaller than the chance of landing an awesome, relatively stable career at this point in the history of the industry.

BTW, based on the discussion within this forum, do I understand it correctly that only airline pilots lose jobs if the economy tanks or oil skyrockets or terrorists fly planes into buildings? Yeah, other sector junior/not top-producing employees lose their jobs too ("Work harder, work faster!"). I guess the only "right" answer is to stay in the Air Force as long as possible, then maybe a land a sim operator or commissary bagger job...

Edited July 14, 2012 by Pancake

[Danny Noonin]

BTW, based on the discussion within this forum, do I understand it correctly that only airline pilots lose jobs if the economy tanks or oil skyrockets or terrorists fly planes into buildings? Yeah, other sector junior/not top-producing employees lose their jobs too ("Work harder, work faster!"). I guess the only "right" answer is to stay in the Air Force as long as possible, then maybe a land a sim operator or commissary bagger job...

Gimme a break. You know I got out, right? You know I was (am) an airline pilot, right? So stop arguing with me like i dont understand the problem or the industry. You think my advice to everyone is to stay in? Take a deep breath, read what I wrote with an open mind, think about how it applies to you and your life, then throw it in your decision matrix however you will.

My only point to all of the young pups here spouting off naively about how great life will be in the airlines after you jettison big blue is that life in the airlines is difficult. You traded one set of frustrations for another. there are very few airline guys that recommend the career to young pups anymore. There is a reason for that.

[mule]

Depends. A lot of new hires are getting widebody International seats (MD-11, 777). I know widebody guys who have never done a night hub turn (the type of flying that most people think of when they think of FedEx). If you want to fly domestic, I believe it's about 60% night/40% day flying (there was a time when it was 100% night flying, and thus the stereotype). Done both pax and cargo; cargo is the way to go.

Never done ONE night hub turn?! I might have to call BS on that one.

New hires aren't going to the 777...yet.

Edited July 15, 2012 by mule

[SocialD]

Never done ONE night hub turn?! I might have to call BS on that one.

New hires aren't going to the 777...yet.

A guy in my squadron is a fairly recent hire. He went straight to the MD-11 in ANC...hasn't done a hub turn yet.

[scoobs]

A guy in my squadron is a fairly recent hire. He went straight to the MD-11 in ANC...hasn't done a hub turn yet.

Still chasing the sun down, but that's pretty typical for intl.

[Pancake]

Gimme a break. You know I got out, right? You know I was (am) an airline pilot, right? So stop arguing with me like i dont understand the problem or the industry. You think my advice to everyone is to stay in? Take a deep breath, read what I wrote with an open mind, think about how it applies to you and your life, then throw it in your decision matrix however you will.

My only point to all of the young pups here spouting off naively about how great life will be in the airlines after you jettison big blue is that life in the airlines is difficult. You traded one set of frustrations for another. there are very few airline guys that recommend the career to young pups anymore. There is a reason for that.

No. I don't know you got out. Why should I know that?

My decision matrix is set-I'm out next month. And I'm not a young pup. And I'm not naive. Yeah, holding a reserve line sucks-watched my dad do it for a few years. Got it. But regardless of whatever airline you're at, I suspect that when hiring kicks in, you'll be very satisfied with your decision to punch as your seniority number quickly rises. I'm fully aware, as should any "young pup" that's done their research, that life can be tough with a relatively low seniority number. I'm not worried about today or even ten years from now. I'm looking forward to life at 50, when my kids are in high school/college and I'm able to hold a pretty good line. My estimation is that those able to get hired in the next few years will have a pretty satisfying airline career. Let's hope I'm right.

Deep breath... Yawn... how many "Dude, relax" colloquialisms can we use in one thread?

Very few guys recommend an airline career to the "young pups?" Seriously? Where do you work? Every active pilot I know at a major is very positive about their career.

Edited July 15, 2012 by Pancake

[HuggyU2]

Every active pilot I know at a major is very positive about their career.

Your experience is very different than mine.

Every pilot I know at United, Continental, and American are relatively dissatisfied.

And though I haven't asked them, I'd be surprised if any of them recommended that career path to their kids.