I’ll be the first admit that prior to the invasion I didn’t think the Russian military as a whole would perform this poorly. In retrospect it’s kinda not surprising given that Putin’s entire system is a kleptocracy; I’d imagine a good portion of military funding over the years actually purchased mega yachts and West London real estate.
Overwhelming force is great until poor logistics, low morale, and precision fires fuck up your weekend.
Couldn’t say on the nukes, don’t have any window into that world. I think the bigger question is whether there’s enough Putin loyalists in the launch chain to ensure preemptive nuclear strikes are carried out.