Lord Ratner

Sadly I'm not surprised. Anytime Trump does well of anything, he immediately goes back to being lazy and assuming that he'll never fuck up again. The debate with Biden and the assassination attempt made him cocky. He'll probably realize that he fucked up this debate, but Kamala would be a fool to agree to another one. Fortunately he didn't do anything overly insane, so this probably won't move the needle much either way. I think he still has a very good shot at winning the electoral college, but not enough to bet on it.

While I agree with the overall premise, these people volunteered to help us on the promise we would see the war through (like with Japan and Germany). We didn't.

Tucker has always been ahead of the curve on domestic issues, and almost always wrong on international ones. But you can't really expect someone to be right about everything, can you?

I think you're mistaking the definition of unintentional. This officer very intentionally killed the airman. When he drew his weapon and began firing, as you stated, he was firing to neutralize the threat. And for the police, you shoot to kill, not injure. Center mass or head. He intentionally drew his weapon and intentionally fired it until the target, intentionally selected, was neutralized, which includes the reasonable assumption of death. Unintentional homicide would be like what Alec Baldwin did. He had absolutely no intent to kill that woman, but his negligence in handling the firearm resulted in it. Read the paragraph on second-degree murder again (I somehow screwed it up in the quoted block). "... Leads one person to make an intentional decision to kill the other person. It was not premeditated, but it was intentional nonetheless."

The acorn incident demonstrated everything we need to know about how corrupted our concept of policing has become. That's not a commentary on the actual officers. These incidents are happening too much to blame on rogue cops. They do feel like they're at war, and depending on where they are, they might be. Every time America has sent soldiers into war zones, a good portion of them come back broken. It's very hard to exist in a world where you are a target and then transition into a civilized existence. The fact that officers don't travel around with partners anymore is probably one of the biggest single factors I can identify. The simple reality is that you are much more vulnerable, and you feel much more vulnerable, when you are alone. However the incident recently where the two cops shot a woman in her own home, clearly mentally compromised, because she threw a pot of hot water at them, shows that the issue isn't just cops being solo. Another part of it is the expectation that any risk to their lives is an unacceptable risk. We don't accept that mindset in the military and we shouldn't accept it in the police. Risk is part of the job, and yes, it's better if a cop dies than an innocent person being killed by the cops. Both on an a professional level and from the perspective of maintaining citizen faith in the system. https://apnews.com/article/illinois-sheriffs-deputy-charged-cf164189d678f921deff05fa3789d3a2 You can watch the body cam footage of this shooting. I'm not arguing that people should have free reign to throw boiling water at cops, but they were in her house for an issue that did not involve her as a threat, and as soon as she started acting crazy they could have and should have backed out of her house and deescalated. Instead the cop stood his ground and barked orders at a crazy person. That doesn't mean this cop should go to jail for the rest of his life. But it does mean that something is deeply flawed with the modern view of policing and training of officers.

The best explanation I heard was that the AF obsession with getting more Joint Staff General Officers meant two things: 1) You had to identify them very early because of all the different boxes you "needed" to check to qualify. 2) The boxes that needed checking were almost entirely administration and paperwork jobs, so once you were "selected for greatness" as a captain, you were basically done leading people in a real sense for the rest of your career. And as we know, pilots don't lead until much later in their career compared to the ground-pounders, so... Not a lot of experience or talented leaders at the top in the AF.

I often marveled at the Air Force's remarkable ability to make incompetent decisions despite the fact that every general I met was, for the most part, a good dude and seemingly competent. Then I saw who amongst my peer group was going to be the next generation of senior leaders. Turns out they were also, for the most part, good dudes. But when it's your peers it's easier to know *what* they were competent at, and it started to make sense. It's not the skill set you'd pick to lead a war fighting machine.

Desktop or mobile? I wasn't aware there were good Ad Block options for the phone.

The ads kind of suck again. It's almost like a shitty porn site where every click has a pop-up, drop-down, or banner that covers the navigation bar.

It's obviously an escalation, but it seems unlikely the Russians can fight on more than the current number of fronts. Maybe? I doubt the Ukrainians have much spare capacity either. If this is purely a military play... Good luck. But if this is an attempt to create some incentive for ending the conflict, it could be a brilliant move. Apparently the US decided to take the handcuffs off.

That's because you (not really you, but your troll persona) are quite apparently dumb enough to think that anyone here means "we won't be able to print enough currency to cover these bills" when they say "we can't afford it." Absolutely nobody is referring to the Federal Reserve's ability to create dollars. No one. Not one single person here. Because humans don't speak semantically in raw literal declaratives. What they are saying is that the process of printing money (issuing new debt, creating it out of thin air, adding it to the ledger, however you insist on portraying it) to cover these expenses will, as it always has, destabilize the currency in a way that will at a minimum negatively impact the purchasing power of the population, or at the extremes, destabilize the entire society such that the status quo falls apart. "We can't afford this" is no more a statement of monetary capacity than it is when a military/airline parent says "I can't afford to miss another soccer game or dance recital." Normal people don't have to explain such simple context to the participants of a conversation, but apparently we would have to dumb it down for you keep up. Fortunately, your participation is neither necessary or beneficial to the conversation, so I doubt we will spend too much time trying. I'm taking a shit right now, so I have a little free time to indulge.

It's academics taken to its illogical extreme. You see the same thing in climate science. Absolute certainty in theories that have been mistaken for facts, and every time the theory is unable to predict the future, reasons are found after the fact to justify the theory's failure. When you question the theory, you are deemed too stupid. The Soviets called them useful idiots. Unfortunately they predominate in academia and politics. They proliferate during the good times, and skitter away like roaches when things get ugly. But I think our resident economist is more like General Chang than he is like Paul Krugman. It was a good run.

This guy is almost as good as General Chang was in his glory days 🤣😂

Yeah dude, it's called base ops. Welcome to the orgy, fucko 🤣😂.

Yes, and zero (in the government spending component) would dramatically lower the GDP. We agree. And it's sad I need to add this, but not all govt spending is a loan. Taxation is the primary source. That's why government spending is in the GDP in the first place, because it is meant to capture the spending by the populace that was precluded through government taxation. If there was no deficit spending, this would actually be a fair measure, as taxation responds reliably to economic growth and contraction. Sure you did: "Growth is a measure of spending, if the gov spends, growth increases by definition." You weren't. Just pointing out another silly metric used to portray the economic reality in a politically favorable light. The secretary of Treasury. Good enough? “We’ve raised the interest-rate forecast,” Yellen noted Friday in an interview with Bloomberg News. “That does make a difference. It makes it somewhat more challenging to keep deficits and interest expense under control.” https://fortune.com/2024/05/25/deficit-debt-warning-janet-yellen-higher-rate-outlook-interest-expenses/ https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/boj-wont-raise-rates-when-markets-are-unstable-deputy-gov-says-6f4bf962 Right, they just had to backtrack on future hikes after a whopping .25% hike. That screams stability. The Yen devaluing by 1/3 in a few years is perfect normal too. No, what's happening here is the normal people are talking about the actual economy using unambiguous terminology. You are attempting to convert the conversation into something more akin to academic economics. But the field of macroeconomics has been dead for decades. There's a reason investors don't lean on guys like Krugman to make money. Modern economics stopped being viable when it became a political tool to justify the utopian desires of elected fools. And no matter how many times the predictions are wrong, we just get more reasons why actually its very very complicated and you definitely can't use common sense. You've once again demonstrated this quite effectively.

Yes, but the problem is that the formula does not subtract out deficit spending. That's not growth, which is explicitly the change in the size of the population and the increase or decrease in the productive output of the individuals in the population. Adjust the "G" component downward by the deficit amount and the growth goes bye bye. You demonstrate perfectly the uselessness of modern economics. A bunch of novel concepts are created and measured with painstaking precision, yet the underlying metric is irrelevant in any practical situation. OER is a perfect example. When the practical reality of home prices became inconvenient, the fantasy of Owners Equivalent Rent was created to keep the charade chugging along. It's funny, if the debt was so sustainable, why is the Treasury so anxious to get interest rates back down? Why did Japan just eat shit over an aborted tiny hike in their interest rates? Why is their currency diving? And regardless of the distribution of GDP, even *with* the deficit spending, growth is drafted by debt expansion

This is called pseudo-intellectualism. It's where you focus on arbitrary semantics instead of the point.

It is not sustainable if it leads to price instability. It is, as you suggest, payable, but if the welfare for the rich leads to social unrest, that is the opposite of sustainable.

No way. Too funny. So the closeted gay guy hated the first major Republican candidate to be pro-gay? At some point you have to realize that right now the dumbest, least stable, least capable, most attention-seeking people in the country are the ones drawn to government. Once you realize that it all makes sense.

Why? I'll be blunt, this just feels like you saying something you don't believe to sound moderate. Walz is one of the most progressive governors in the US. The Trump policy position is one of the most moderate in recent Republican history. So exactly which Republican would you support over Harris, and what are the policy differences between that Republican and Walz that would put you in that position? Or do you just know nothing about Walz? That would be pretty standard for an American voter.

He was a better candidate than Hillary, and Hilary was by far a better candidate than Kamala. I suspect all Kamala did was reenergize the (D) turnout, so now we have two high-turnout candidates. If Kamala and Walz are stupid enough to debate, they'll probably lose. If they keep hiding from any scrutiny or positions, they have a chance. But the race is always about swing states, and I can't imagine how two open progressives from two solidly progressive states will change the electoral math. Either way, it's clear the Democratic party is as dead as the Republican party. I'm not sure what emerges from the ashes.

What went wrong?

Never met him, but his contributions here were thoughtful and interesting, and funny. I can only imagine how much better he was in person. Very sad to hear this news. 🥃

Yeah you're looking at final sales prices, I was referring to listings with price cuts. More of an early sign, including total listings in general. The "kid" who runs www.reventure.app is a bit of a sky-is-falling type, but his program makes it very easy to look at the more interesting and relevant metrics for setting market changes early. Things like listing price cuts and time-on-market. Separately, because all data is garbage and nothing is real, the chart you posted completely ignores new-construction incentives. Almost $50k per house in some cases. That would be a lot more than a 2% blip in the price of it was factored in. https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/04/whats-the-cost-of-mortgage-rate-buydowns-and-other-incentives-to-homebuilders-lennar-discloses-the-numbers/ Once they start fucking with the books, look out. It'll still take a couple years because housing isn't like the stock market, it doesn't go down like an elevator. But between the demographic shift of ownership and the general impossibility for the younger generation to afford homes at these prices, a major correction is long overdue and is *possible* seeing the beginning.

Well that is kinda the point I was making. If you own them, you're good. A lot of the late-entry AirBNB owners are in adjustable rate mortgages. *Very* different calculus for them. You were in this game before the pandemic, right? I might be thinking of someone else. As always, unless you are a big enough player ($billions) that you know Uncle Sam will have your back in an emergency, owning > borrowing. The inventories and price cuts in listings in North Texas are skyrocketing. It'll be a great chance to rebalance the market *if* the unemployment monster rears it's head in the next 6 months or so. Today will look like an appetizer compared to what's coming if the consumer comes under pressure. But that's a very big "if" as far as I can tell.