Since Hacker brought up the Regionals, I'll add some more (current) information, since I think the incredibly recent turn of the Regional industry (read, last two years) is going to be the nail in the coffin for the Guard/Reserve side of the house.
I'm a Guard baby (Captain) and quickly got sick of only being able to snag 150-300 hours of flying time a year, due to the increased AD-Lite mentality of the Guard and all the extra admin duties and responsibilities that get thrown on you. I snagged a job at a Regional (that takes me an hour-and-fifteen-minutes to get to the employee parking lot) just after they more than doubled pay from what Hacker was talking about. Since that time two years ago, two-to-four other Regionals have jumped their pay WAY up... Endeavor is currently leading the way with $50/hr first year FO, $60/hr second year FO, and $93/hr third year CA pay.
In 2018 I deployed for a couple/few months, took a two month AGR gig, and flew the line at the Regional as an FO... I live in my Guard city, take a short drive to the airline, and between the two gigs I made $100,000 and blocked ~700 hours... Let me reiterate, I'm an FO at a REGIONAL.
They're FORCE upgrading people here at like 18 months (due to the shortages), so by the time I upgrade to the higher money in a couple months, I'll already be able to hold a line in domicile, due to all the guys junior to me already being forced to the left seat. I was doing the math with the CA I'm flying with on this trip yesterday, and (assuming I do the minimum AFTP/RUTA count for 2019 and maybe another month's worth of Orders at some point, and then upgrade around April) I'll probably make close to $120,000. This guy's a LCA who drops trips every month and he makes $120K. Add the minimum amount of Guard work and you're pushing $150,000... at a REGIONAL.
Just wanted to throw that out there, because I keep trying to tell my leadership that THIS may be an even greater threat to our ranks than the imminent mainline hiring... I know we're losing senior IP/EP types, but what's going to happen when that trend continues, and then the young guys are bouncing AS WELL? No longer is it a huge pay-cut for the younger Lt's/Captains to hit the Regionals for the block hours. It's a pay bump (not to mention a GUARANTEED paycheck vs. Guard bumming), and it's infinitely easier to build those hours as well. I'm doing 85 block this month, and 90 next month. I was the high-time pilot in the Squadron at one point this year with 75 hours... in three months.
Big AF, the Guard, and the Reserve have no idea...