Indeed, there is some good stuff there. The OV-10G is a cool airplane with a lot of capabilities in the air to surface realm.
I still think that someone has to provide alert DCA for the ESG. Deploying 6 ships and a sub without air cover is... well, there is a huge hole in the defense there. Leaving an entire MEU susceptible to a something so widely proliferated as a Bison carrying archer and exocet missiles is scary.
The Navy won't deploy the ESG with the CSG on "routine" patrols. It's just way to expensive and limits power projection.
Libya still had SA nodes that limited the Harrier's ability to conduct ops without Prowler support. The AF has left the tactical EA business.
"Where I can see the Marines actually using the MEU capability is in the litany of situations where the lower cost, lower tech options will more than suffice in escorting V-22s, conducting ISR and overwatch, and providing supporting air-to-ground fires. Perfect fit with the TRAP concept, embassy evac, contingency response (Benghazi-esq attacks), disaster relief, etc. That's where the MEU provides the bang for the buck...if we're kicking the door into Syria or Iran or N. Korea and really need 5th gen fighters you've got two other services that pretty much do that shit for a living."
This is a legit argument. I agree with you 95%. The way the Marine Corps is being used now is wrong. We are not a land army. However, TRAP still needs OCA and EA in many places in the world. If shit goes south in a country and we need to evac an embassy- it may not be a permissive environment that we have to fly into. Are there still shit hot pilots and aircrew who would risk everything to go into contested airspace to bring Americans home? You bet your ass. But shouldn't we be able to give them the best chance to bring them home? Perhaps this argument could go hand in hand with why the AF needs bases around the world with as much tanker support as possible. But even then- when you're on the ground running, minutes is what matters, and getting a section of F-22s from England to North Africa is in the hours timeframe. Launching a C model from the CSG would reduce that time, but again, what if the CSG isn't with the ESG?
You are 100% correct that a MEU isn't going to kick in the door to Syria, Iran or NK, but it can be expected that the MEU will be there. At that point will the ground forces give up control of their air support? I don't know. I do know that there will be a Marine Col who will make one hell of a stink when the air support he needs doesn't exist because it is off supporting someone else. We played that game in WW2- it's an old argument, but one that isn't forgotten easily. Many Marines lost their lives on an island in the Pacific because the Navy and the Air Force went off to fight their own battles. We vowed that it wouldn't happen again. There is a lot of emotion there, and a lot of bad blood. It has driven us to where we are today.
Don't take me for an F-35 tried and true kool aide drinking guy. We've worn our Hornets out (literally, worn the hell out of them, we have serious readiness issues at home) flying ISR and light attack missions where that OV-10 or Super T would have been not only an equal, but a better asset wrt time on station and ordnance carry. You don't need an F/A to fight the war in Afghanistan. Hornets flying combat missions over AFG is a complete waste of money.