I was at a rated manning conference last week. We got a briefing on VSP and the RIF from AFPC and HAF/A1PP, Personnel Policy. This is just a reporting of what was said.
A1PP is the OPR for the force management initiatives, the VSP, RIF, and the rated recall, among others. At the start of the brief, the A1PP O-6 admitted that it was not made clear that not everyone who applied for VSP would be approved. She said she takes the blame for not making that clear.
On the difference between the VSP and the RIF, approvals for VSP were based on what "best met the needs of the AF." VSP was objective, using numerical criteia. The RIF will be subjective, giving "special consideration to critical skills," applying the whole-person concept, and looking at quality. It's a reverse promotion board, taking those with Article 15s and other issues off the bottom.
The reason they didn't know how much ADSC they'd be able to waive for VSP approvals beforehand was that it was based on who, and how many, applied. If very few applied, but they all had large ADSCs remaining, the amount waived would have been greater. If lots of people applied, and many had little or no ADSC remaining, they wouldn't have to waive much. The cost of the ADSC waiver (in lost man-days) was one of the numerical criteria mentioned above. As it ended up, they waived about 6 months of ADSC for VSP approved rated members.
There were a total of about 900 airmen who applied for VSP, about 850 of which had their CC's concurrence. About 540 of the total were rated. About 300 total airmen were approved. 69 of those approved were rated. Most of those not approved had larger ADSCs remaining, long DEROS' remaining, or other quantifiable reasons.
The RIF will separate about another 300. No, 300 + 300 doesn't equal 2200. But there are other, ongoing programs, including (but not limited to) the other Force Management boards, Blue to Green, Palace Chase, Limited ADSC Waiver, and the coming O-5 and O-6 SERBs.
You may possibly see a targeted Palace Chase for certain rated AFSCs. Rated are currently excluded from Palace Chase, but there are certain areas that the Guard and Reserves are really hurting in, and in which the AD is overmanned. A1 is looking to balance the manning between the AD and ARC within those career fields. More to follow after further detailed analysis.