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Well just got the word...second year with a Super P and a #4/42 Majors bottom line = passed over again.  So much for APZ being looked at the same as IPZ.  Good news...over 20 so somebody else will have to figure out how to fix it .

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Well just got the word...second year with a Super P and a #4/42 Majors bottom line = passed over again.  So much for APZ being looked at the same as IPZ.  Good news...over 20 so somebody else will have to figure out how to fix it .


This along with the rumor of someone I know being passed over ATZ with a DP makes me wonder if there has been some radical change to the CSAF instructions to the board members.


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14 hours ago, matmacwc said:

Go ANG/AFRC, get promoted.  

Cannot emphasize this enough. This has been mentioned for years on this board, I'll let it percolate back to top. The timing on "in the zone" boards are much different in the ARC.

I left Active Duty just prior to my 1BPZ LtC board. Because I had a firm separation date, that PRF went to the board as Recommendation Only (blank 9-lines, just a P). As with all the double speak with OPRs/PRFs, the message was sent. This person is not promotable. I was not on AD when that 1BPZ board convened, nor the following year when my commissioning cohort met our IPZ board.

Then I get into the ARC, where everything is based on the FY in which I pinned on the current rank. ROPMA/DOPMA laws drive to 7 FYs in your rank. So in the fifth FY in my current rank, I meet the Position Vacancy (PV) board. My ARC PV board was roughly 2 years after my AD IPZ for LtC.

The PV board is loosely equivalent to an AD BPZ board, but with different rules. There is only 1 PV board, not like the 2BPZ & 1BPZ boards on AD. In order for your PRF to meet that board, there is one big requirement--you must occupy that next rank's position number on your unit's UMD. For instance, if you're meeting a LtC PV board, you must be in a LtC position number on the UMD. That simple administrative act allows your leadership to push your PRF to the PV board.

In the 6th FY in your current rank, you meet your "in the zone" ARC board. The universal requirement here is having a pulse, AND having your PME complete. That's it. Correspondence PME does the trick. After you've been selected for promotion and then enter the 7th FY in your current rank, your local leadership has the option to let you pin on at any time, not having you wait until the month where you'd actually be in your rank for 7 years. That's why you see a bunch of guys pinning on Maj / LtC on 1 Oct in the ARC...beginning on the 7th FY for those dudes/dudettes.

The timing of these boards mean that you could be passed over on AD promotion board timing, and not even have met your PV/IPZ board timing for the ARC.

So if the AD clownshow tells you you're a non-select, you know have actionable data to decline continuation and start getting prepped for interviews, both in the ARC and possibly airlines if that's your flavor. Don't forget...the pilot hiring era we are currently in is without historical precedent. There has literally never been a better time in the history of aviation to get hired as an airline pilot. It's a massive life change to get out, with a family or not...but try not to let the fear of the unknown drive your decision here. You've done harder shit than this. The time is now.

If I've said anything incorrect here, please correct me ARC bros. This info needs to get out to the guys on AD who are at decision time. Thanks.

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17 hours ago, ImNotARobot said:

Cannot emphasize this enough. This has been mentioned for years on this board, I'll let it percolate back to top. The timing on "in the zone" boards are much different in the ARC.

I left Active Duty just prior to my 1BPZ LtC board. Because I had a firm separation date, that PRF went to the board as Recommendation Only (blank 9-lines, just a P). As with all the double speak with OPRs/PRFs, the message was sent. This person is not promotable. I was not on AD when that 1BPZ board convened, nor the following year when my commissioning cohort met our IPZ board.

Then I get into the ARC, where everything is based on the FY in which I pinned on the current rank. ROPMA/DOPMA laws drive to 7 FYs in your rank. So in the fifth FY in my current rank, I meet the Position Vacancy (PV) board. My ARC PV board was roughly 2 years after my AD IPZ for LtC.

The PV board is loosely equivalent to an AD BPZ board, but with different rules. There is only 1 PV board, not like the 2BPZ & 1BPZ boards on AD. In order for your PRF to meet that board, there is one big requirement--you must occupy that next rank's position number on your unit's UMD. For instance, if you're meeting a LtC PV board, you must be in a LtC position number on the UMD. That simple administrative act allows your leadership to push your PRF to the PV board.

In the 6th FY in your current rank, you meet your "in the zone" ARC board. The universal requirement here is having a pulse, AND having your PME complete. That's it. Correspondence PME does the trick. After you've been selected for promotion and then enter the 7th FY in your current rank, your local leadership has the option to let you pin on at any time, not having you wait until the month where you'd actually be in your rank for 7 years. That's why you see a bunch of guys pinning on Maj / LtC on 1 Oct in the ARC...beginning on the 7th FY for those dudes/dudettes.

The timing of these boards mean that you could be passed over on AD promotion board timing, and not even have met your PV/IPZ board timing for the ARC.

So if the AD clownshow tells you you're a non-select, you know have actionable data to decline continuation and start getting prepped for interviews, both in the ARC and possibly airlines if that's your flavor. Don't forget...the pilot hiring era we are currently in is without historical precedent. There has literally never been a better time in the history of aviation to get hired as an airline pilot. It's a massive life change to get out, with a family or not...but try not to let the fear of the unknown drive your decision here. You've done harder shit than this. The time is now.

If I've said anything incorrect here, please correct me ARC bros. This info needs to get out to the guys on AD who are at decision time. Thanks.

PV promotions have to be leveled based off overgrades on the UMD and they are based off billet type, AGR/TR/ART, etc...

Early pin on is something that still has to be requested from ARPC/whoever, but it's usually approved 

Edited by LookieRookie
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12 hours ago, LookieRookie said:

PV promotions have to be leveled based off overgrades on the UMD and they are based off billet type, AGR/TR/ART, etc...

Yes, just because you’re in the next-higher-grade billet does not guarantee PV eligibility. It depends on how many people in the next higher grade are assigned vs how many are authorized.

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Just be careful of the state you choose.  Some states, as a matter of practice, force guys to ROPMA even to major, which is ridiculous.  I pinned on major 2-3 years before quite a few of my officer school classmates because of this.  The only guys in our squadron that went to ROPMA for major were the guys that didn't do SOS.  Maybe we're lucky that we don't have a bunch of O5s that just hang around forever, but few guys have to wait too long for O5 as well.  Occasionally a year wait, but few guys are actually forced to ROPMA.

Edited by SocialD
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Boss called me to the office today.  Made the O-5 cut.  PRF was a P, not even a Super P.  PRF that wasn’t great but records under it were good and definitely undercuts the “only the bottom line matters” theory (mine was meh), but it still worked out thankfully.

Anyway, cheers to those who made it.  Sorry to those who didn’t.  USAF gonna USAF and we can all find our way regardless - lord knows I had my backup plan lined up if it hadn’t worked out.

ZB

Edited by zach braff
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My big question is about continuation for next year, assuming I will not make the cut at 1APZ.  I’m all for continuing to 20 as a Major, but my fear is that I would just be separated instead.  Does anyone know about the continuation boards, and rates on the people not offered continuation?  I’ve looked at the past few years here, and seen that everyone passed over has been offered continuation.

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My big question is about continuation for next year, assuming I will not make the cut at 1APZ.  I’m all for continuing to 20 as a Major, but my fear is that I would just be separated instead.  Does anyone know about the continuation boards, and rates on the people not offered continuation?  I’ve looked at the past few years here, and seen that everyone passed over has been offered continuation.
After the great debacle of 2012, its going to be awhile before they don't offer continuation to everyone, unless there's something in your records to warrant not offering it. The bigger question is whether you'll be offered 20 or 24 years. The board instructions are usually posted on MyPers that outlines which AFSCs each year are considered critical skills and therefore will be offered 24. They make mistakes though...last year I was only offered 20 instead of 24 because my duty history looked funky, but I got them to correct it (I needed the 24 years so AFIT didn't kick me out of my PhD program!).

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No I don’t have any QFI’s on my record.  Last year I went DQ from flying due to medical, but the big AF decided to choose to let me continue to serve instead of Med Board me...I had to go through that process though.  The DP2NP via a RILO returned me to duty.

Its just the uncertainty of being continued, but if it’s only if you have a QFI that you don’t get offered it, then that would make me feel more secure.

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Well boys, looks like 1206's and being in the top 20% of your wing's FGO ranks is not enough to get promoted.

I guess either way I can stop filling out awards packages and worrying about it.

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11 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Well boys, looks like 1206's and being in the top 20% of your wing's FGO ranks is not enough to get promoted.

I guess either way I can stop filling out awards packages and worrying about it.

Damnit Pawnman are you F’ing serious?  What a joke.  Sorry man.   

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7 minutes ago, celtic020 said:

Damnit Pawnman are you F’ing serious?  What a joke.  Sorry man.   

100% serious.  As long as I can get continued to 24, then the bonus means I'll get paid like a LtCol, at least.

I'll post my redacted PRF when I'm not on leave.

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8 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I'll post my redacted PRF when I'm not on leave.

Sorry to hear this. We are living in strange times indeed. Thank you for still helping others even when the AF has punched you in the gut.

I have to wonder, and hope, if competitive categories will put our APZers back in play...

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9 minutes ago, Klepto said:

Sorry to hear this. We are living in strange times indeed. Thank you for still helping others even when the AF has punched you in the gut.

I have to wonder, and hope, if competitive categories will put our APZers back in play...

Not holding out much hope for that.

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Pawnman: the black box of how promotion boards work sucks. It also sucks that even a FOIA of the board instructions won’t help much. Just remember...Big Blue May not value you but there are people in your community who do.

Klepto: I doubt competitive categories will help. I think there is a study in the Navy showing that the “aviator” category promotes at a lower rate than the others.


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4 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

I think there is a study in the Navy showing that the “aviator” category promotes at a lower rate than the others.

 

I dunno if there’s a formal study but just a cursory glance at promotion zone percentages shows that’s a fact. BUPERS publishes stats after every board and aviators are typically at the bottom of the pile percentage wise. 

 

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Bummer Pawnman, hate it when guys that want to stay in and make a difference don’t get promoted to places where they can affect positive change. Keep your head up brother!


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Well boys, looks like 1206's and being in the top 20% of your wing's FGO ranks is not enough to get promoted.

I guess either way I can stop filling out awards packages and worrying about it.


What a crock. Sorry man.


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The biggest crock is that our strat system has become so convoluted and mystical that even with a solid #/## you still don't know where you are at. How are you 4/42 or top 20% in a board that promotes 60-70% and still now selected? It makes zero sense except that commanders have been gaming the strat system for so long that even they don't know how it works anymore. 

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15 minutes ago, FLEA said:

The biggest crock is that our strat system has become so convoluted and mystical that even with a solid #/## you still don't know where you are at. How are you 4/42 or top 20% in a board that promotes 60-70% and still now selected? It makes zero sense except that commanders have been gaming the strat system for so long that even they don't know how it works anymore. 

Shack.   A large percentage of people get a 1 or 2 strat on an eval.   Mathematically, can that many people be truly ranked 1 or 2?  Of course not.   But commanders manipulate those numbers and if you aren’t a beneficiary, it looks like you’re an average Joe.   If a commander actually has the wherewithal and ethical conscious to strat appropriately, and a good officer gets a #7/50 or something in the range, which SHOULD be a good strat, it somehow doesn’t look good.   But it is good.  

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13 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:



Klepto: I doubt competitive categories will help. I think there is a study in the Navy showing that the “aviator” category promotes at a lower rate than the others.


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Checks.

The rate at which the new competitive categories promote will likely go down because the AF still only needs/is authorized X number of new O-4 or O-5s per year. In the Current system, officers compete for every authorized line number. In the new system they will only compete for slots allocated to their competitive category (sts). Because smaller, support type competitive categories will have guaranteed line numbers, the result will be a lower overall selection rate (%) for the ops category. However, the goodness is that each competitive category can define what it values in its officers. Instead of competing with sitting Sq/CCs from the MSG the lead hundreds of Airmen, the ops category can place higher emphasis on things like deployments, WIC grads, etc. 

I personally think it’s a fair trade off because the goobers and queep monsters in Ops will  more easily standout amongst the purely ops records.

Edited by osulax05
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1 hour ago, FLEA said:

How are you 4/42 or top 20% in a board that promotes 60-70% and still now selected? It makes zero sense except that commanders have been gaming the strat system for so long that even they don't know how it works anymore. 

The selection rate for APZ was 6.2% overall (76/1219)... APZ with a P was 3.7% (44/1176), w/ a DP 91.4% (32/35). Without a DP, it's a steep climb for APZ promotion...

Chuck

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