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COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)

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I agree with Brickhistory here. 40,000 people die on highways in the US every year.  We don't shut those down, we accept a certain level of risk and try to reduce the deaths.


It's because people have some measure/feeling of control over driving that they don't with a virus. Motorcycles are riskier than a Volvo sedan but I have control over what vehicle I drive. Granted some highway deaths are unavoidable and seemingly random but human psychology is weird.

I think it links to some of the panic buying as well. These people have no control over the virus but they do have control over their purchase of 5 years worth of toilet paper.

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The 1-2% mortality rate is entirely reliant on the capability of your health care system to handle the influx surge of people. It exponentially raises as you start receiving cases you need to turn away due to lack of hospital beds/supplies/staff. Italy is a good example of this as their facilities are now completely overwhelmed to the point where they are not even bothering to treat patients over 80 in a last ditch effort to divert resources on people with a better chance of survival.

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A few things to ponder when you or your significant other is going shopping. I recommend taking your own basket/bag, decon before you go, use self-checkout, decon when you get home, decon food/products purchased , etc; There are 3 new COVID-19 cases on Gulfport Navy Base and one case pending test results (Keesler AFB is involved in the testing/medical treatment of some of these folks).

- COVID-19 positive case #1 = Navy Trainee.

- COVID-19 positive case #2 = Commissary Bagger.

- COVID-19 positive case #3 = On Base Retail Worker.

- COVID -19 pending test results #4? = ON Base CDC Worker.

https://www.stripes.com/news/navy/sailor-trainee-is-third-at-gulfport-navy-base-to-test-positive-for-coronavirus-1.623510

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll

The charts all show exponential increases in death. China's BS numbers notwithstanding, where is it getting better? (BTW, Chinese cell phone companies show 15 million lost subscribers total over the last 6 weeks.) I'm trying to understand the logic behind "This will all blow over" and "Traffic accidents are worse" and other "whatabouts".

Wayne Gretsky said something to the effect of "I don't skate to where the puck is, I skate to where it is going to be." Are people just looking at today's numbers and saying "10x more people were killed by snake bites last year, so this is overblown"?

We're just getting started. Before this gets better, the rate of increase in death has to stop being exponential, then it has to stop increasing at a constant rate, then it has to plateau, then it has to decrease, then it has to decline to a level that is acceptable by society.

So what is it, exactly, that people are referencing as the reason for any of the aforementioned things to occur? A gut feeling that summertime sunshine will kill all the virus particles? A cure is just around the corner? It only kills old people and they'll be gone soon? Washing hands solves it? It magically disappears as in China? I understand the desire to return to "normal", but the train has switched tracks and "normal" is way back thataway. We're not going back. Either we find a cure or run out of people to infect.

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21 minutes ago, torqued said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll

The charts all show exponential increases in death. China's BS numbers notwithstanding, where is it getting better? (BTW, Chinese cell phone companies show 15 million lost subscribers total over the last 6 weeks.) I'm trying to understand the logic behind "This will all blow over" and "Traffic accidents are worse" and other "whatabouts".

Wayne Gretsky said something to the effect of "I don't skate to where the puck is, I skate to where it is going to be." Are people just looking at today's numbers and saying "10x more people were killed by snake bites last year, so this is overblown"?

We're just getting started. Before this gets better, the rate of increase in death has to stop being exponential, then it has to stop increasing at a constant rate, then it has to plateau, then it has to decrease, then it has to decline to a level that is acceptable by society.

So what is it, exactly, that people are referencing as the reason for any of the aforementioned things to occur? A gut feeling that summertime sunshine will kill all the virus particles? A cure is just around the corner? It only kills old people and they'll be gone soon? Washing hands solves it? It magically disappears as in China? I understand the desire to return to "normal", but the train has switched tracks and "normal" is way back thataway. We're not going back. Either we find a cure or run out of people to infect.

Quit being so hypoerbolistic. It’s definitely a serious problem, we get it, but the virus growth does not go unchecked at an asymptote forever. That’s not how it works.
 

There’s a guy named Peter Attia, and he may be Canadian but he’s a doctor. He’s really concerned about this whole thing, but he’s also not trying to paint it as the end of the world like you are. Suggest you go find a brown paper bag, stay an appropriate distance away from other people for a while, and listen to what he has to say. 

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42 minutes ago, torqued said:

 

Either we find a cure or run out of people to infect.

Erm, no.

But if the economy is literally wrecked, there's no society to come back to.

And all those nice diseases that the First World thought it had licked (no pun intended) really will come back with a vengeance.  Then you'll see death toll.  China and Russia are continuing with their economies.  I'm betting they haven't contained this thing either.  

Meanwhile, I dig the advice above.  Good article.

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2 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

Erm, no.

But if the economy is literally wrecked, there's no society to come back to.

And all those nice diseases that the First World thought it had licked (no pun intended) really will come back with a vengeance.  Then you'll see death toll.  China and Russia are continuing with their economies.  I'm betting they haven't contained this thing either.  

Meanwhile, I dig the advice above.  Good article.

Russia is using webcams to ensure people stay home and China isolated/cleaned/and imprisoned those who violated confinement. (authoritarian tactics)  

Our response is not enough.

There will be no economy if everyone is sick regardless of who dies or not.  

We need to do it all and now in order to get the economy going as fast as possible.  Laser focused confinement, mass testing/cleaning. 

I don't think people will come out of their house until they feel some sort of sense of security.  Ignoring it all and let it play out does not lessen the fear.

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22 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

Russia is using webcams to ensure people stay home and China isolated/cleaned/and imprisoned those who violated confinement. (authoritarian tactics)  

Our response is not enough.

There will be no economy if everyone is sick regardless of who dies or not.  

We need to do it all and now in order to get the economy going as fast as possible.  Laser focused confinement, mass testing/cleaning. 

I don't think people will come out of their house until they feel some sort of sense of security.  Ignoring it all and let it play out does not lessen the fear.

I’m going to go ahead and say our constitution doesn’t allow us to implement these Russian and Chinese tactics you want. 

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I see it as two options. You can implement draconian measures which will shut down and cripple the economy and people will get fed up and risk getting the virus so that they can feed their family. Or, we can assume a level of risk, ramp up ICU care around the country to handle illness, and halt the tanking economy. One option cripples the world economy and people get sick and die. The other prevents financial collapse but people still get sick and die. Risk management. 

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4 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

I’m going to go ahead and say our constitution doesn’t allow us to implement these Russian and Chinese tactics you want. 

The Constitution?

b369eae71eef7aa4f66073cdc006dbed.jpg

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9 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

I’m going to go ahead and say our constitution doesn’t allow us to implement these Russian and Chinese tactics you want. 

You misunderstand.  This statement was in response to why China and Russia are continuing with their economies...they use authoritarian tactics.  The western world obviously does not do this hence why we need to follow a different approach.  This does not take away from the fact that our response is not sufficient.  

Stay safe and wash your hands.

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The biggest challenge seems to be getting a vaccine. As mentioned earlier, even if the mortality rate is in the 2-3%, anybody hospitalized for covid-19 takes a bed that can't be used for someone else that needs it (think heart attack, car accident, stroke, etc). Alternatively, if the spread of the disease is slowed, we as a society build up a herd immunity while staying within our healthcare capacity.

The argument for lifting the quarantine/self isolation right now is the same that anti vaxxers use-it's my choice, the rest of society be damned, and the disease isn't too bad.

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11 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

You misunderstand.  This statement was in response to why China and Russia are continuing with their economies...they use authoritarian tactics.  The western world obviously does not do this hence why we need to follow a different approach. 

Ah. 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

The biggest challenge seems to be getting a vaccine. As mentioned earlier, even if the mortality rate is in the 2-3%, anybody hospitalized for covid-19 takes a bed that can't be used for someone else that needs it (think heart attack, car accident, stroke, etc). Alternatively, if the spread of the disease is slowed, we as a society build up a herd immunity while staying within our healthcare capacity.
 

So, Peter Attia (linked earlier) addresses the vaccine problem with Peter Hotez (another doctor) across several podcasts with where things stand so far. I’ll try to summarize:

-coronaviruses are historically hard to vaccinate against 

-attempts to vaccine coronaviruses typically have a high rate of leaving trial patients at a HIGHER risk for the virus than if they hadn’t had the trial vaccine

-it takes time, even if you were to try shortening the trial sessions, which with the previous bullet is potentially a big risk

 

But seriously, I really think Attia has been a concerned but pragmatic source of info and doesn’t have the hysteria of 24 hr news. 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-attia-drive/id1400828889?i=1000468407666

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-peter-attia-drive/id1400828889?i=1000469033937

Edited by SurelySerious
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13 minutes ago, jazzdude said:



The argument for lifting the quarantine/self isolation right now is the same that anti vaxxers use-it's my choice, the rest of society be damned, and the disease isn't too bad.

False position.  The question is what is the determining point?  I'm not anti-vax nor do I damn the rest of society.

But we do need to discuss actually having a society when this is over.

If our economy is to become solely Big Brother and we serfs are dependents, I'd sure like to have a say in that.

As I have stated, I don't have the answer, but my spidey-sense says literally crushing our economy is worse than this virus in the long term for our nation.

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1 hour ago, SurelySerious said:

I’m going to go ahead and say our constitution doesn’t allow us to implement these Russian and Chinese tactics you want. 

No but forced quarantine has held up to constitutional test before and philosophers have made successful moral arguments on suspending individual rights for broad public health. I believe typhoid Mary had to go through several constitutional test before she was ultimately suspended to an island for 27 years in quarantine. 

Also, we cannot underestimate the effect of culture on the success of far east nations to contain the virus. In general, people are for more cognoscente of their social reputation there and they are more likely to self enforce quarantines and personnel hygeine to save face. 

I'm as distraught over this as anyone. I literally just got to Europe eager to travel and I've been confined to my house the whole time except to go to work. I'm hoping we can come up with some smart mitigations within a month or so and return some freedom to people. 

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Some info out of NY is coming out.  Doc with about 350 patients that came with COVID19 symptoms without finding testing results hands them a bag with three different drugs (hydroxychloroquine, antibiotics and zinc). No one is hospitalized. Everyone survived.  No need for ICU bad or a respirator. 

In future, I would see the following everywhere; Patient with symptoms drive by the test site. Test results are done on site. Patient gets rx prescription and that's it. 

Country is open again. Problem solved. 

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2 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Quit being so hypoerbolistic. It’s definitely a serious problem, we get it, but the virus growth does not go unchecked at an asymptote forever. That’s not how it works.
 

There’s a guy named Peter Attia, and he may be Canadian but he’s a doctor. He’s really concerned about this whole thing, but he’s also not trying to paint it as the end of the world like you are. Suggest you go find a brown paper bag, stay an appropriate distance away from other people for a while, and listen to what he has to say. 

 C'mon, dude. The word you're looking for to falsely characterize what I am saying is "hyperbolic".

I am not painting it as the end of the world. It is an open-ended observation/question. I do not know how this ends. You apparently do. Why aren't you explaining how we arrive at the point where this stops being a problem instead of going on to list all the problems with vaccines (further supporting my question)? I could point to a hundred different internet experts and say "they're really smart, listen to them", but wouldn't you rather hear me explain it? 

What is the fix?

"That's now how it works." How does it work? Cliff notes at the very least.

Got home from an airline trip a while back and I've been home sick for about 10 days. Around 3 days of gastrointestinal issues, several days of fever, a "hotness" in my neck and face that wouldn't go away, a slight cough, congestion, etc. I drank water, fixed tractors, tended to the cattle, and aside from taking an occasional nap, I'm fine. I'm not worried about this. No paper bag required. I am worried about my parents and in-laws.

Tell me exactly why you have a problem with me asking what the basis is for the unfounded optimism that "this will all blow over and we'll go back to normal."

2 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Erm, no.

But if the economy is literally wrecked, there's no society to come back to.

And all those nice diseases that the First World thought it had licked (no pun intended) really will come back with a vengeance.  Then you'll see death toll.  China and Russia are continuing with their economies.  I'm betting they haven't contained this thing either.  

Meanwhile, I dig the advice above.  Good article.

Brick, the previous economy was bullshit and wasn't going to last with or without the virus. I posted about it prior to all this happening. Infinite debt spending is a broken system. The value of currency cannot exceed the value of the production it represents indefinitely. You need to worry less about what the Dow is doing and worry more about what our elected leaders are trying to do to us while we're currently distracted.

Don't know what I'm talking about? Go to Forbes.com and search for today's article on "Digital Dollar". I'm not going to tell you what to think about it. Look into it and decide for yourself.

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28 minutes ago, torqued said:

 C'mon, dude. The word you're looking for to falsely characterize what I am saying is "hyperbolic".

I am not painting it as the end of the world. It is an open-ended observation/question. I do not know how this ends. You apparently do. Why aren't you explaining how we arrive at the point where this stops being a problem instead of going on to list all the problems with vaccines (further supporting my question)? I could point to a hundred different internet experts and say "they're really smart, listen to them", but wouldn't you rather hear me explain it? 

What is the fix?

"That's now how it works." How does it work? Cliff notes at the very least.

Got home from an airline trip a while back and I've been home sick for about 10 days. Around 3 days of gastrointestinal issues, several days of fever, a "hotness" in my neck and face that wouldn't go away, a slight cough, congestion, etc. I drank water, fixed tractors, tended to the cattle, and aside from taking an occasional nap, I'm fine. I'm not worried about this. No paper bag required. I am worried about my parents and in-laws.

Tell me exactly why you have a problem with me asking what the basis is for the unfounded optimism that "this will all blow over and we'll go back to normal."

Brick, the previous economy was bullshit and wasn't going to last with or without the virus. I posted about it prior to all this happening. Infinite debt spending is a broken system. The value of currency cannot exceed the value of the production it represents indefinitely. You need to worry less about what the Dow is doing and worry more about what our elected leaders are trying to do to us while we're currently distracted.

Don't know what I'm talking about? Go to Forbes.com and search for today's article on "Digital Dollar". I'm not going to tell you what to think about it. Look into it and decide for yourself.

No, you painted this as apocalyptic. I have provided you a good source of info, but I’m not spoon feeding you. Especially since you’re so entrenched.   

 

Go listen to the good doctor because he’s pragmatic and you’re as sensational as the 24 hr news cycle. 

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No, you painted this as apocalyptic. I have provided you a good source of info, but I’m not spoon feeding you. Especially since you’re so entrenched.   
 
Go listen to the good doctor because he’s pragmatic and you’re as sensational as the 24 hr news cycle. 


So why are CDC and WHO recommending/advising different than him?

Also realize that just like pilots, doctors specialize. So I'd rather defer to an infectious disease specialist or an epidemiologist at the WHO or CDC than a general/oncology surgeon.
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1 minute ago, jazzdude said:


 

 


So why are CDC and WHO recommending/advising different than him?

Also realize that just like pilots, doctors specialize. So I'd rather defer to an infectious disease specialist or an epidemiologist at the WHO or CDC than a general/oncology surgeon.

 

...if you listen to Attia, he acknowledges he isn’t an epidemiologist and then brings in epidemiology and vaccine experts. That’s number one. 
 

Two: I didn’t say he recommends anything. You can listen to what he has to say or you can go about without the info. Your call. 

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5 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

No, you painted this as apocalyptic. I have provided you a good source of info, but I’m not spoon feeding you. Especially since you’re so entrenched.   

 

Go listen to the good doctor because he’s pragmatic and you’re as sensational as the 24 hr news cycle. 

If I were entrenched, I'd be making statements. Not asking questions you can't answer. I'm open minded as to how this situation gets rectified, just not interested in banal platitudes like "Don't worry, it'll all get better! Just be positive!"

People are dying and will continue to die at an increasing rate until something stops the progress. That's not being sensational, that's a fact.

But I get your point. I'm wasting my time. Your doctor's thoughts on the matter are your thoughts on the matter.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, torqued said:

If I were entrenched, I'd be making statements. Not asking questions you can't answer. I'm open minded as to how this situation gets rectified, just not interested in banal platitudes like "Don't worry, it'll all get better! Just be positive!"

People are dying and will continue to die at an increasing rate until something stops the progress. That's not being sensational, that's a fact.

But I get your point. I'm wasting my time. Your doctor's thoughts on the matter are your thoughts on the matter.

 

 

Except you haven’t bothered to listen to a reasonable medical doctor that has a decently respected podcast who is disseminating pretty apolitical unbiased info, so you have no idea what you’re scoffing like a true ignorant jackass with things like models of unchecked exponential infections that doesn’t work because they assume everyone the infected people encounter has never been exposed like a zombie apocalypse. 
 

I’m not telling people to go run around (instead of shelter IAW current direction, obviously), but I think you should figuratively read a fucking book instead of sowing panic. 

Edited by SurelySerious

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7 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Except you haven’t bothered to listen to a reasonable medical doctor that has a decently respected podcast who is disseminating pretty apolitical unbiased info, so you have no idea what you’re scoffing like a true ignorant jackass with things like models of unchecked exponential infections that doesn’t work because they assume everyone the infected people encounter has never been exposed like a zombie apocalypse. 
 

I’m not telling people to go run around, but I think you should figuratively read a fucking book instead of sowing panic. 

I haven't scoffed at the doctor. I am scoffing at your inability to answer legitimate questions without wholly referencing the thoughts and theories of someone else, and I am able to do it without childish name-calling. Did I not specify that the virus would be impeded when it runs out of people to infect? How exactly is that different from your brilliant discovery of the blatantly obvious fact that it doesn't infect people already exposed. By the way, Herd Immunity isn't exactly a groundbreaking or helpful discovery for those that will cease to exist before it becomes an effectual impediment to the spread.

And I'm "sowing panic" by asking questions on an obscure message board for salty old military pilots?

Don't you think you're being a little "hypoerbolistic" there, Doc?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, torqued said:

I haven't scoffed at the doctor. I am scoffing at your inability to answer legitimate questions without wholly referencing the thoughts and theories of someone else, and I am able to do it without childish name-calling. Did I not specify that the virus would be impeded when it runs out of people to infect? How exactly is that different from your brilliant discovery of the blatantly obvious fact that it doesn't infect people already exposed. By the way, Herd Immunity isn't exactly a groundbreaking or helpful discovery for those that will cease to exist before it becomes an effectual impediment to the spread.

And I'm "sowing panic" by asking questions on an obscure message board for salty old military pilots?

Don't you think you're being a little "hypoerbolistic" there, Doc?

You can listen or you can not, but I’m not synthesizing hours worth of material for your intellectual laziness. I don’t type that much, I’m not nsplayr. 

Edited by SurelySerious
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