Mark1 Posted February 18, 2015 Posted February 18, 2015 ...It will really open you aperture. You guys should be more open minded and just let Chang open your aperture for you already.
General Chang Posted February 18, 2015 Posted February 18, 2015 Here is one of the many gulfs of misunderstanding we're talking to each other across. When I say ops, I'm not just talking about deployments. They've held fairly steady in my community over the last couple years. Even as deployments have gone away in OIF and OEF those blocks have just been filled by other requirements Non-stop ops is all encompassing of the deployments, TDYs, and intensive home-station training most AFSOC units deal with on a constant basis. There isn't enough of us to go around so we're constantly busy. Most guys come to AFSOC understanding this; most guys relish it. But it gets tiring. A lot of dudes that want to go do something else for a tour aren't released because the manning doesn't support it. School slots for candidates are very difficult to get right now and guys aren't being released in any serious numbers for staff. So they start to get burnt out, bitter, jaded, whatever you want to call it. Lately, a lot of them have ended up punching. I don't believe the sky is necessarily falling in the AF or my community but things are tough right now. We've had over fifteen 12+ year guys leave in the last year for the civilian side; in a community as small as mine the loss of that experience is very difficult to deal with. Your data may say things are getting better for some communities and in some places it may be true. Those numbers are only part of the whole story. I talked about the lack trust one two star felt was prevalent between senior leadership and the ranks. This little discussion we're having is symbolic of that. You, in the HQ are saying things are super duper awesome and the line guys are saying we're in serious trouble. The reality is somewhere in between I'm sure. Like I said before most dudes have a serious issue with what you spout because it doesn't match the reality they see on the line. I appreciate your post and recognize some communities face assignment difficulties that others do not. It is unfortunate, but I don't anticipate key strategic personnel decisions being made divorced from the spreadsheets and the numbers. It's the ultimate Moneyball. How can we retain just enough talent for the cheapest price to get the win? Tough, tough questions with tough answers. However, it's what our bosses, the taxpayers, expect us to do. 3
StoleIt Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 'Sigh'. We can debate the resources aspect, but non-stop ops? Really? The numbers simply do not back that up, my friend. Dwell times continue to get better and better. I'm rooting for you to get a Pentagon job out of ACSC this summer, hopefully here in A1. It will really open you aperture. So why is there talk about waiving DAV 81 at my base? But I guess there was a 2 month period after they closed Manas but before ISIS cropped up that was nice... 1
TMFan Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 Chang, why are you here? If you are who you say you are, do you really think your words are those of a good leader? Really? Would you follow you?
Homestar Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 He's a sausage maker. And he's right, the Air Force doesn't owe me anything. That's why I will take what I need from the Air Force and give back an amount equivalent to what I'm paid. If the Air Force wants more, it can pay me more...otherwise it will ask me to leave thank you very much and thank you for your service. It's just a job and it pays the bills. There are worse things to do in this life, so I keep working at it. But there are better things to do. Throwing money at the problem works fine, but it only solves part of the problem.
one1 Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 (edited) If it is just a job and a pay check to you, I promise you there are easier and more lucrative ways to make money.... Monster.com Indeed.com Edited February 19, 2015 by one1
10percenttruth Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 (edited) Craigslist.com/casual_encounters Edited February 19, 2015 by 10percenttruth 1
Clark Griswold Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 Truth to power or shouting into the void. Decent summary of what most officers see as the problem with promotion / leadership in the AF. An Air Force officer: The military doesn’t want to retain talent (or at least that’s the perception) Point made by an anonymous e-mail to the author specifically relevant to this discussion: – Officer performance reports offer no objective measures of success or mission accomplishment. Absent objective measures, officers are left with subjective measures — specifically, how much their bosses like them compared to their peers. When promotion and stratification depend on your boss’ regard for you, a system creates perverse incentives toward politicking, backstabbing, and whitewashing your record. This system should naturally select towards the selfish and power-hungry.
SnapLock Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 So, anyone ever PCS right before your PRF accounting date? Seems like a formula to not get promoted.
Guest ThatGuy Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 So, anyone ever PCS right before your PRF accounting date? Seems like a formula to not get promoted. Great question. In my previous community, we have a ton of guys/gals coming back from a deployment prior to that time this year. They will ALL PCS prior to their PRF accounting date. Talking about sheer madness. I would advise you talk to your CC prior to your PCS. I've seen it where CC's will call ahead to your new CC and ensure you are not forgotten. Especially for the shiny pennies.
Dupe Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 So, anyone ever PCS right before your PRF accounting date? Seems like a formula to not get promoted. Some other tactics: delay the PCS or get a 1-VML reclama.
ClearedHot Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 At the risk of changing the topic from the Chang Show back to original intent... So to change the subject up a bit. Does anyone have any insight into what the promotion board was looking for specifically during this past December board for major? Our AAD's were masked and our status for SOS indicated simply whether it was complete or not. Did this make things easier or harder for the board? I had a friend not promoted and this individual checked all of the boxes. I do not know exactly what boxes this individual checked, but I assume the board saw something that excluded him from promotion. I remember you guys/gals saying some people think too highly of themselves in regard to promotion and the promotion board will usually get it right. Some clear messages out of this board and the O-6 board...when other things are masked...strats matter, being an IP made zero difference, AFSOC's run is OVER.
LJ Driver Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 At the risk of changing the topic from the Chang Show back to original intent... Some clear messages out of this board and the O-6 board...when other things are masked...strats matter, being an IP made zero difference, AFSOC's run is OVER. No kidding, we didn't do too well on this one.
di1630 Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 No kidding, we didn't do too well on this one. Can you elaborate for those of us without the #'s?
Guest ThatGuy Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 At the risk of changing the topic from the Chang Show back to original intent... Some clear messages out of this board and the O-6 board...when other things are masked...strats matter, being an IP made zero difference, AFSOC's run is OVER. So making the bad people go away and deploying your butt off to support special needs around the world isn't viewed well by the board? Interesting....
SnapLock Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 Some other tactics: delay the PCS or get a 1-VML reclama. Tried both. Got shot down.
Herk Driver Posted February 19, 2015 Posted February 19, 2015 Tried both. Got shot down. Sent you a PM.
Skitzo Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 Some clear messages out of this board and the O-6 board...when other things are masked...strats matter, being an IP made zero difference, AFSOC's run is OVER. CH... If I am not mistaken AFSOC has recently been behind most other MAJCOMs wrt promotion selection to O4. How bad has it gotten? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Dupe Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 At the risk of changing the topic from the Chang Show back to original intent... Some clear messages out of this board and the O-6 board...when other things are masked...strats matter, being an IP made zero difference, AFSOC's run is OVER. This is why promotions through O-5 should be done at the DT level vice the whole-of-the AF. I believe strongly that each community can select its next leaders better than a whole-of-the-AF panel. 4
Guest ThatGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 (edited) Question is how does the rate compare to ACC? Before this past board in December, ACC promotion rates to major were far less than those posted by AMC. Was it mentorship, bomb dropping only PRF's, or just bad luck? Is the same possible thing going on in AFSOC right now? One of my buds from UPT was a DG out of T-44s, he received gunships and he got promoted this past board. Edited February 20, 2015 by slick999
F16Deuce Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 But maybe, just maybe...by breaking out AFSCs at the promotion board, you can promote more of a stressed or undermanned AFSC (say, 18X or 11F) and fewer of an "overmanned" AFSC (like, apparently, 12B. And I AM a 12B). Then, maybe the cuts to personnel could be shaped year to year, instead of making everyone undergo the RRF exercise every time there's a drawdown. That just makes too much sense, clearly it couldn't work.
Guest ThatGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 (edited) That just makes too much sense, clearly it couldn't work. Then the RPA community would see promotion rates skyrocket. Edited February 20, 2015 by slick999
SurelySerious Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 Then the RPA community would see promotion rates skyrocket. It'd probably be cancelled out by how many people opt to separate after their commitment despite getting promoted anyway.
Guest ThatGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Posted February 20, 2015 It'd probably be cancelled out by how many people opt to separate after their commitment despite getting promoted anyway. Valid point.
TnkrToad Posted February 21, 2015 Posted February 21, 2015 Some very basic analysis from the recent O-6 board that folks here might find illuminating. I don't know what the breakdown is by pilot community; just going off the overall stats: Bottom line is making O-6 is more possible than some on this forum might think: - For pilots who met the O-6 board in the zone, 87/170 got selected in the zone, for a 51% overall promo rate o Not bad odds, really, they are even better than one might think - If you discount those who didn’t bother to do SDE by correspondence or in residence (correspondence SDE ain’t a huge hurdle), the effective IPZ promo rate pilots who really cared was 87/140, for an effective promo rate of 62.1% - This is, of course, after the top perhaps 10% have been skimmed off the top via BPZ promotion What the above all means to me is that, for those pilots in the ’94 year group that recently met the board: - If they made O-5, stayed on active duty and did the minimal work of doing at least SDE by correspondence, they essentially had a 70+% chance of making O-6 - If you factor in folks whose ADSCs/other circumstances kept them on Active Duty long enough to meet the board, but who 1) initially kept their options open by doing corr SDE, but 2) have little interest in actually making O-6, then the chances for those who really want to make O-6 are even better still (although I can’t find a way to quantify this) What this might mean to folks on this forum who haven’t met the O-6 board yet (if the most recent board is any indication): - If you managed to make O-5 and actually want to wear chickens on your shoulders: o Do SDE by correspondence (minimal work required—if you really care, I’m sure you know this and already have it done anyway), and keep plugging away (whether you’ve ever been an exec, WIC grad, Sq/CC, or not). Your chances are demonstrably very good What this might mean to USAF leadership: - An effective promo rate of 70+% to O-6 (among those who are actually trying) hardly sounds all that competitive - I suspect future O-6 boards will be even less competitive—especially for 11M types—given both A-word hiring and HAF/A1M’s mismanagement of the 11M community TT
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