zrooster99 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 My calculations put it at roughly $1k/month for a 15 vs 20 year O-4. It takes about 12 years for the 20 year pay total to exceed the 15 year pay (due to the extra 5 years of payments). Those are just rough guesstimates I used when making my decision to apply for TERA earlier in the year. I noticed they had added a paragraph on the mypers TERA page saying in effect that all twice passed over O-4s would be offered TERA if eligible. Of course, they didn't define eligibility, whether that was the current TERA criteria, or just meaning you have >15 years. I wondered the reason why they added that late in the game (April) and whether they were going to continue or not. I was approved for TERA in April, but had kind of held out hope that this might be a second chance if originally denied, since I was most likely not gonna make it. Are there reports of continuation being offered to anyone? Sorry to hear about this being implemented for people that really wanted to stay in...can't help the timing! Checks... I show about $3700/month for 20 and about $2600 for 15.5 yr... I haven't heard of anyone getting continuation... As you said, timing is everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BonedRiver Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I noticed they had added a paragraph on the mypers TERA page saying in effect that all twice passed over O-4s would be offered TERA if eligible. Of course, they didn't define eligibility, whether that was the current TERA criteria, or just meaning you have >15 years. I wondered the reason why they added that late in the game (April) and whether they were going to continue or not. I was approved for TERA in April, but had kind of held out hope that this might be a second chance if originally denied, since I was most likely not gonna make it. This was my exact question all along once all this FM junk came out. No one had a clue/could give me a damn answer. So it's nice to to know AFPC now has it written down somewhere. Here's to hoping it's available next year at 15-yrs and APZ time! Now... off to call sheppard air about that atp prep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Checks... I show about $3700/month for 20 and about $2600 for 15.5 yr... I haven't heard of anyone getting continuation... As you said, timing is everything... Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sqwatch Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011? My worthless opinion is that AFPC is going to offer continuation when they need numbers in certain ADSCs, regardless of TERA being offered or not. It's been my experience that AFPC doesn't consider your welfare for strategic planning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey Donuts Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 (edited) Twice passed over '99 11M here. Offered continuation (this board). Applied for TERA first go and was denied. Go figure. Edited June 29, 2014 by Mikey Donuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zrooster99 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011? Continuation is at issue on your APZ board...(one above). No sure things at this point, so I wouldn't bank on TERA being offered every year. I believe non-continuation is an easy force management measure. The TERA, I assume, is being offered due to backlash from the last time folks were dumped en mass... Mikey, VERY interesting! Dispels the theory/rumor that no 99ers were continued APZ. I wonder if we're expected to be short on 11Ms...I thought we we're thin on 11S ISR dudes, but maybe it's not looked at that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LockheedFix Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I just took a look at the stats for the CY14A O-5 board. IPZ selection was 67% this year, down from 74% last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSCguy Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I find it interesting the board wasn't pushed back a few months. In my little compcat the O4 and O5 board was moved from its traditional June date and combined with the O6 board in Sept so the boards would occur after a lot of the force mgmt movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Techsan Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Just to clarify.. do you get continuation if passed over for IPZ? Or does it not come until 2xAPZ? That being said, any indications that IF TERA is not available in a few years, will they revert back to continuation? Are they not continuing people beceause TERA is available? Or are we most likely looking at all twice passed over (with TERA not being an option) as being sent on their way similar to 2011? All of the guys from our wing who were just passed over their APZ to O5 were all given TERA with a NLT 31 Dec 14 date...all 11M. For what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Right Seat Driver Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 All of the guys from our wing who were just passed over their APZ to O5 were all given TERA with a NLT 31 Dec 14 date...all 11M. For what it's worth. How many guys are we talking? It is hard to believe the MAF can keep pressing with the huge loss of 11Ms. Not to mention most of these guys were experienced IPs/EPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Techsan Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 How many guys are we talking? It is hard to believe the MAF can keep pressing with the huge loss of 11Ms. Not to mention most of these guys were experienced IPs/EPs.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey Donuts Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Mikey, VERY interesting! Dispels the theory/rumor that no 99ers were continued APZ. I wonder if we're expected to be short on 11Ms...I thought we we're thin on 11S ISR dudes, but maybe it's not looked at that way... Sweet baby Jesus, I might be the only one left! Maybe the fact that I JUST PCS'd might have something to do with my retention. It definitely wasn't my "on track for AETC SQ DO!" push that I got on my last two OPRs (from a real sweetheart). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fifty-six & Two Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Side by side comparison of last year's board compared to this years. Roughly the same amount of people in the zone, but far less DPs given out and as already talked about, a 7% decrease in promotion rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TnkrToad Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 (edited) How many guys are we talking? It is hard to believe the MAF can keep pressing with the huge loss of 11Ms. Not to mention most of these guys were experienced IPs/EPs. The outlook for MAF leadership does look bleak, but it seems to me that the damage has been/will be done in a way that our senior leaders will fail to recognize it and do anything about it: - The lower overall promo rate for pilots of all types is down, from 74.7% in the last board, to 70.3% in this board - Best I can tell, the promotion opportunity for this board was 75%, whereas it was 85% in the previous board (BPZs & APZs reduced this and last boards' IPZ rates to 67% & 74%, respectively) - MAF pilots typically fare worse than those from other MDSs, so the MAF pilot promo rate is likely going to be even worse than the overall - Throw in the improving outlook in the civilian sector, and many of those the Air Force doesn't force out/encourage to get out through promo boards and force management programs will punch when they hit retirement eligibility at 20 yrs - The problem is that there will still be enough high-speed MAF types that get promoted and choose to stay in that MAF leaders will remain unconcerned about the health of the leadership pipeline or the ability to fill Joint & HAF staffs. Furthermore, they won't worry too much about having enough pilots overall, since long SUPT commitments will ensure that flying wings/groups/squadrons have plenty of bodies to hack the mission. What senior leaders will likely fail to realize or appreciate is how few experienced senior O-4 and O-5 types will exist in operational staffs, at the Wing through MAJCOM level. Taken together with a rapidly aging and retiring government civilian population where most corporate knowledge resides, this will mean that there will be precious few who know how to translate our leaders great ideas into actionable plans that wings and below can execute -- The relatively small group of MAF pilots selected for O-5 will, by the time they meet their O-6 board IPZ at 20+ years, will consist almost entirely of bright-and-shiny IDE/SDE types, PME/USAFA instructors (read people who have good deals and are happy to stay where they are) and dead weight (those who somehow got selected for O-5 but contribute little to the mission) The result will be a MAF community that (from everything the leaders can quantify) will have what it needs: an adequately large pool of future senior leaders and enough pilots to hack the mission. What, pray tell, do you think TACC is going to look like 5ish years from now? We won't be able to fight our way out of a wet paper bag, because the Baby Boomer generation civilians where most corporate knowledge resides will have retired, the Reservists who came back on active duty will have hit 20 yrs of AD time and retired (or gone back to their Traditional Reserve and airline jobs), the bright-and-shiny types will be too busy going to school and promotable staff assignments, and hardworking/competent/but not promotable beyond O-5 types will have taken their 20 yr retirements and will be walking into airline jobs. The pool of retired MAF Navs (another great source of GS civilian types) will be drying up if not completely dried up, since they've been replaced by avionics. Bottom line, in the not-too-distant future (if it's not here already--I'm too far removed from the real world), the guys responsible for making leaders' dreams into operationally-executable reality will mostly be a bunch of dead-weight senior O-4s and O-5s . . . aided by a much smaller number of dedicated, competent but grossly overworked O-5s who are trying to keep the ship afloat. edited to add a little more verbiage Edited June 29, 2014 by TnkrToad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TnkrToad Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 (edited) Side by side comparison of last year's board compared to this years. Roughly the same amount of people in the zone, but far less DPs given out and as already talked about, a 7% decrease in promotion rate. If there are any personnelist types out there, please correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears to me that the actual potential promotion rate dropped by 10% (from 85% to 75%). The reason the IPZ rate dropped by "only" 7% is that there were proportionally fewer BPZs and APZs selected in this board, as compared to the last. Edited June 29, 2014 by TnkrToad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 We had a good group of guys get picked up for O-5 today in my wing. I hope they keep their heads on straight. Becoming an O-5 doesn't turn you into a douchebag. A douchebag O-5 was a douchebag O-4...and most likely everything that came before that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustache Sally Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It's not so much becoming an O-5, but becoming a sq CC or DO as an O-5 where I've seen people go from crew dogs to careerist managers. In their previous life, they looked out for their people...but once they stepped into the "leadership" role it was all about them. Just my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrobe Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I've seen the leadership magnify the d-baggery. Tends to be worse if people are unsure of themselves. ..and if their goal.is to make the next rank... Posted from the NEW Baseops.net App! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goingkinetic Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Who was the guy with a P who got promoted with no IDE or AAD? I want to know his story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Who was the guy with a P who got promoted with no IDE or AAD? I want to know his story. Was wondering the same thing... so you're saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HercDude Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Who was the guy with a P who got promoted with no IDE or AAD? I want to know his story. Or hers....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrizzell Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Who was the guy with a P who got promoted with no IDE or AAD? I want to know his story. Not too much sour grapes...but...Having checked all my boxes and drank the Kool-aid by the gallon; quite frustrating to see that someone who didn't show the same "dedication to the cause" be rewarded with the promotion. Understand ever story is unique, but it still stings.... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrobe Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Not too much sour grapes...but...Having checked all my boxes and drank the Kool-aid by the gallon; quite frustrating to see that someone who didn't show the same "dedication to the cause" be rewarded with the promotion. Understand ever story is unique, but it still stings.... Because being a company yes man makes you a better officer?....I have feeling your cause and the actual " fly/fight and win cause" of the air force don't match. Your cause seems to be a"Me" mentality Posted from the NEW Baseops.net App! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 (edited) Not too much sour grapes...but...Having checked all my boxes and drank the Kool-aid by the gallon; quite frustrating to see that someone who didn't show the same "dedication to the cause" be rewarded with the promotion. Understand ever story is unique, but it still stings.... And this attitude is why the system will never really change. Really, are you "frustrated" because someone succeeded despite the ludicrous system you embraced? ETA - additional thoughts. Posted from the NEW Baseops.net App! Edited July 1, 2014 by Bobby 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
busdriver Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Promotion isn't a reward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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