Clark Griswold

Worth a listen, Angry Planet now 2 for 2 A Brief History of Lying About Afghanistan

Same but a guess dual Afghan-American or American citizens of Afghan descent or naturalized. Doesn't matter which to moi as they are .Mericans so get them the hell out. Saw NSA Sullivan on MTP this am and he was saying that they (the majority) were advised to leave weeks ago and offered financial assistance if unable to leave, will take him at his word until otherwise but still you could have told the Taliban its going to take some time and back off. You're a GD superpower, act like one, demonstrate you will not be cowed.

What if they (the PRC) are positioning themselves to negotiate and get the 10-15K American Citizens out when/if the Taliban close Bagram and tell us to get out in 6.9 hours or else? If the Bobs at the Puzzle Palace are saying we don't have the capacity wouldn't it be convenient and a huge embarrassment to your enemy to release his people to his other enemy? That they were the ones who negotiated their peaceful transfer out of country? If I were the PRC, I'd be calling the Taliban to negotiate this humiliation to my main enemy.

This - "they" will come up with something else to distract the public and squelch the conversation using their damn near monopoly on the modern communication platforms. Shadow bans, stealth edits, blocking, deplatforming, etc... Biden quits, Harris takes over after the worst parts of Op Cluster Fornication are over and going into the mid-terms she and them run on supporting the first female president. That's why she's gone radio silent, if you don't really do anything during a shit storm you'll get less on you, let the old man get battered then come in when his usefulness as a pinata is complete. How many think that in a year this will be an issue? The neo liberal/conservative globalist movement is not letting something like utter failure after failure deter the project.

CRAF may be used: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/08/21/total-calamity-biden-may-activate-the-civil-reserve-air-fleet/ For the flights and logistics from bases in the ME back to Europe / North America but the widebody fleet maybe called up Op Cluster Fornication continues into Phase II, don't worry they came up with this phase 20 minutes ago, totally thought out and planned.

This podcast series is hit or miss but this was a good one, pretty good history and overview of the Soviet experience, background, operation and withdrawal from Afghanistan They took two years to withdraw and their client state lasted several years AFTER they withdrew. You would think we could’ve learned something from their efforts. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/angry-planet/id1023774600?i=1000532417551 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We just but in 2-3 weeks I’m guessing the MSM will have put this on the back burner Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Should be charged you mean Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just watched the presser, even if they do take hostages I have no confidence they would do anything or could if inclined to do Op Cluster Fornication continues Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wonder if this was an A-29 trying to get the hell outta Dodge Uzbekistan’s Air Defense Forces Shoot Down Afghan Military Jet https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/08/16/uzbekistans-air-defense-forces-shoot-down-afghan-military-jet/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Concur Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am Eddie - I'm not for exclusion or expulsion from our country or any other Western country but a realistic and honest approach to the threats and problems interacting and integrating individuals from other cultures that have or do express values anti-thetical to ours. That can include native communities in our country also, it is not exclusive to foreigners or immigrants. Profiling is sometimes a necessary evil, if you carry a the black flag of Isis or a Nazi swastika flag, you need to be watched. The Bataclan Attack of 2015 and the subsequent capture of some of its perpetrators is an example, those terrorists that escaped the attack and were later captured in another country weeks later had help in their community enclaves or at least willful ignorance / neutrality to assisting them as they escaped. We can integrate others into our societies only slowly, in measured amounts and with the resolve that they will assimilate to us not us to them, anything less and we are proving ourselves unworthy of what was fought for and created by others. As to option 2, methinks even if we doubled the budget (military) to both deter Russia/China and continue operations in the ME the Law of Diminishing Returns would kick in and we would get more military capability than now but not really enough or double to actually do all of those missions in the manner and with the expected low risk of failure that we think a 1.5+ trillion dollar DoD appropriation would get. Without STRONG military legal and policy reform / modernization, MILPERS growth and parochial interests in antiquated, obsolete or irrelevant MDSs / capabilities would drag down the effort. If we want long term humanitarian, stabilization missions it's time for an American Foreign Legion military force. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-need-an-american-foreign-legion/2016/05/19/9a04d24e-176e-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.html Reports directly to the President, separate funding vehicle / appropriation, separate UCMJ but coordinates with the DoD. Winning wars are the responsibility of the DoD, winning the peace (if that's possible) is their responsibility.

Entirely possible but concur with @jrizzell that it was inevitable, the end of a non-Taliban dominated Afghanistan, but the implosion and ignominious retreat was preventable. What I am 10,690% in agreement with you is the utter and total shit show the evac has been. In July there were assurances that things won't fall apart immediately when we fall back, they knew that was bullshit so why weren't we ready? Why wasn't the last month(s) just a stream of airlifters and ground convoys getting our people and shit out? If there is no accountability for this we are even worse off culturally and spiritually than I feared. Returning to your point on violence exporting from a renewed Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, while this is a risk the counter terrorism fight now has to focus mainly on the homeland(s) of the what remains of the West. We tried making their societies like ours, that has not worked. We need to affirm and protect ours, that is a feasible strategy. Super tight borders, extreme vetting to prevent infiltrators, visa requirements and internal tracking of travelers from suspect regions, heavy exchange of intel with trustworthy nations and no squeamish-ness on profiling of communities that whether we want to admit or not sometimes and some in them harbor, nurture, support or spawn terrorists who attack the nations that took them in.

Concur with you on your point(s). I would add that I respect @ClearedHot's opinion and read it and mulled on it for a while, I don't agree with it but I could not figure the why and I think I have it now. The argument for remaining is to defend an order, an idea for a world that no longer exists, that is a Pax Americana world order where we are the guarantor in many places for ideas, values, systems that we like and promote and want others to embrace but can't take root. It's the order we thought would last forever plus a day at the end of the Cold War beginning of the 90's when we believed our power was infinite. Serbia and the ethnic wars of South-Eastern Europe with our mixed results for what we were willing to commit to and convince our Allies to do should have warned us that there is only so much you can do, even as rich and as powerful as you are. The world where we go anywhere and bear any burden is gone, not because that is not a good or noble idea just one that we as a nation, not as individuals, are not willing to pay for, to sacrifice for, to discipline ourselves for. We are just not that nation, not saying we are a bad nation now, we've changed. We have less cohesion, spiritual reserves and excess material resources to use to help others when it is not in our material national interest. The Serenity Prayer is what we need now and going forward as we deal with the world. That is not proof of no major attacks in the US because of Iraq / Afghanistan / Libya / Syria. There were attacks in the UK and Europe and attempts in the US with some minor attacks. Is it because they were all "over there" or because the FBI plus others were using the Patriot Act plus much more aggressive technological means to disrupt cells & plots before they grew to fruition? The wars following 911 distracted some terrorists but not all to attempting to attack the US homeland, it surely dissuaded some nations from overtly / tacitly supporting them and or neutrally allowing them to operate / prepare on their territory but

747 still the champ but the Moose no doubt is nipping on its heels for pax record https://www.google.com/amp/s/simpleflying.com/el-al-operation-solomon/amp/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

To get out of Afghanistan with my family, pack us in and punch it Bishop Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hear ya but they’ve got different goals Them - Acquire wealth and power without giving a shit about anything else or how Us - Fix everything and make everyone nice immediately We’re kinda at a disadvantage Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yup They lead with soft power then gradually get harder (sts) - first sample by the dealer is always free Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just a guess but I think it’s possible they may propose a pipeline thru Afghanistan to link Iranian petroleum exports to the PRC Throw in further potential rare earth minerals mining, weapons, utilities, telecom sales and funding them as a useful proxy to harass, disrupt, attack Western / US interests / forces when beneficial to the overall interest of the PRC you can see the utility of the PRC’s efforts to court the Taliban. Belt-n-Road may get another partner Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Blow it up as the last helicopter flies clear Start planning the B-2 round the world strike now Enjoy your rubble… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ha - I wish they would admit that and get with the program

Negative Ghostrider They (PRC) would just then give them to Iran as a retort to our move and runs counter to the overall strategy of non-proliferation. They could arm or deploy nukes just to threaten us to piss us off other areas also, Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 would be my choice if I were the PRC, you've nuclearly armed Taiwan, I just put 100 hypersonic nuclear tipped missiles on Cuba, enjoy. That might be a pipe dream (non-proliferation) but we are trying to stick with it so conventional deterrence it is.

True - they have numbers but the going is not the best for them assuming a somewhat conventional amphibious invasion of Taiwan Articles on the subject / conjecture of how the PLA et al would carry out an invasion, one article is a bit dated considering the growth in the size and capabilities of the PRC but the fundamental points (terrain, a phased operation, limited windows of opportunity) remain relevant. https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day/ https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2535&context=nwc-review Reading the second article I found this particularly interesting since we both agree that timing is the secret sauce if you wanted to carry out this aggression: The Chinese would also have to contend with two monsoon seasons, from August to September and from November to April; it would be restricted to two “windows” of attack, from May to July and the month of October. The month of October particularly towards the end of the month would be intriguing to me if I were a PLA military strategist to begin as the US would be going into a major electoral period every two to four years and the political competition would likely become another impediment to quick resolve and decisive action to intervene and assist the Taiwanese.

Legitimate points, I would further contextualize my sober assessment of our odds at 50/50 with further growth in their direct military capabilities and indirect capabilities (cyber, info, diplomatic, financial, etc) - give it 3 years on this trajectory and they would be foolish not to try particularly with the cowardly and weak kneed responses to their recent major provocations and outrages (Uighurs, Hong Kong, COVID, etc..). They know the world is intimidated by them and the US is hamstrung by it's own business community that sold the farm to China years ago and would likely try to pull back the government of the US from a forceful response. Hence my belief that breaking the current situation of strategic ambiguity is actually short term provocative and risky to be fair but long term actually stabilizing. Rip the Band-Aid off, hurts like hell initially but settles the problem quickly and permanently. But what do the Taiwanese think or want? Doesn't look like they want Mill's (Deterring the Dragon article author) proposal but if they really really start to believe the PLA is coming this time, they might change their tunes. https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/returning-american-troops-to-taiwan-will-only-entrap-the-us-20514 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4015784 By then I think unless we are on the island hopefully to deter thru some serious pucker factor brinksmanship, I don't know how we stop them once they establish a naval blockade, have CAPs over the island and have taken the small islands of Penghu just west of Formosa, massing troops and ships for invasion. They would insist we are aggressing and escalating as we started our response, my bet is the rest of the world would navel gaze and we would keep assets at the ready and near but not engage while the financial markets go into cardiac arrest. Our CAPs and surface fleets at least would stay outside of whatever quarantine zone they would declare while the cyber, financial, diplomatic and information war would start. Just my uneducated yet to finish AWC guess but if we didn't respond kinetically within 72 hours of their first actions, we would not fire a shot ever. They would have shifted environment, the chatter would move to acceptance and de-escalation. At some point, the free market, rule of law, representative democracies will have to defend the "red lines" they have said exist that the autocracies are pushing and crossing, weakness encourages aggression and they smell weakness with our inability to decisively end conflicts in our favor morality aside, with our tepid responses to cyber attack and disinformation, our cultural self-immolation and our reckless debt accumulation. This to me is way to say no further.

One would think but history has examples where trading partners eschew their economic relations to try to change the geo-political landscape to their advantage, ref the trading relations of pre-WW1 Europe https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/chimera-economic-interdependence Beating them to the punch is becoming more and more likely to me the best COA to avoid a shooting war with at best a 50/50 chance we prevent the conquest of Taiwan. I would lean extremely hard on others to participate also, UK-Aussies-SK-Indians-Germans-French-etc... but if necessary we go it alone There is risk, it won't be cheap and convincing the American public will take time but you stand up to Biff or you do his homework forever.