Clark Griswold

So, there's a country starting to dissolve in our hemisphere, not far from our shores and I've been casually following the story. It's awful, it's becoming a problem spilling over its borders and starting to directly affect us vis a vis illegal immigration and becoming an ungoverned space that will become a base for illegal activities throughout the Caribbean and Americas. Do we intervene, stabilize and prevent the collapse of the state? I'm fairly cynical on the idea of nation building but I'm not for letting problems just build in our sphere and letting us be affected by them when we could prevent it. I'm not sure it's nation building we should do versus just plain old occupation / stabilization and stating this is done in the interest of the USA, not bending logic and trying to spin it but just stating matter of fact we're doing this to prevent a larger humanitarian problem and reasonably trying to help the Haitians. Fear, violence and chaos grip Haiti as gangs seize control | PBS News Weekend Other nations have said they would help or participate in a stabilization operation, the UN would be involved, and the goals would be very realistic. Thoughts?

China acting a bit like a little kid... China is mad at the US for blasting its suspected spy balloon, but a few years ago, state TV bragged its fighter pilots could shoot one down (msn.com)

I think your point is valid but I think sometimes there is value in stirring the pot. He’s a 4 star of a MAJCOM, he expressed the martial spirit and perhaps awkwardly a bit inspired his troops I think he was trying to channel this We need not always be reserved and restrained, letting our foes and competitors know that we are ready and on some level itching for fight is a good way to nurture deterrence Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the collective assessment that Mini is done might be premature Looks like he’s got some support https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep-mccaul-air-force-generals-prediction-2025-war-china-hope-wrong-think-right.amp And on this podcast he got some support https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fault-lines/id1481982630?i=1000597292329 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s to some extent more money but I think it’s really for these guys still being part of the DC scene in some way, if you get another job in the nat sec ir blob the road goes forever and the party never ends Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My spidey sense says they were still concerned about their career vs what they believed, it was just about their next career. Be it college president, think tank wonk, consultant, whatever... those who publicly profess contra-prevailing conventional wisdom / groupthink ideas probably have limited post mil career opportunities. There is something to having a unified team and then there's a pack of lemmings blindly following the lemming in front of them. No perfect objective measure like porn vs art but you know it when you see it. I think that compliments your above point on leaders willing to challenge the status quo. Copy book recommendation.

I hear and think you are mostly right but f*** it, who cares, when we are given the chance to speak the truth from a place and platform that the troops, the warfighters, the mission hackers can hear it and not get watered down by the Bobs, yes men and future apparatchiks of the nat sec blob, we should take it. Maybe this was planned, maybe they told him to be the guy to say what needed to be said publicly then rebuked but he has now said the emperor has no clothes and it is in the public space and probably now acceptable for other leaders to say well I would said it differently but.. it's true so we're gonna focus on real military shit because WW3 is upcoming...

I could go round and round arguing with you on your opinions on immigration (legal and illegal) and we would not change each other's minds, also I consider you a good faith arguer and non-shitposter so if that's your opinion fair enough. I would disagree (well just a little round and round) that immigration is a massive net positive for the USA; controlled, legal, meritocratic, diverse immigration at a rate that can be assimilated is a net positive, how much of a positive I think is overstated IMHO.

So you're okay with the SW border situation? You believe the administration is correctly interpreting and enforcing the laws of the USA regarding immigration and employment enforcement?

I’m guessing they want that old broke Soviet shit for the spare parts / ammo but that’s giving the benefit of the doubt generously But considering the customers of Soviet now Russian gear, which of these countries are gonna burn that bridge with Russia when they don’t really like us that much? Does she expect Cuba, Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, etc..really to cozy up to the Yankees after they piss off the Russians #2dimensionalthinking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We don’t have to tell them to stop but we don’t have to supply and support them if we determine it’s not in our interest. Just as I think we should be concerned about the longer term of Ukraine we need to be concerned about what Russia will be after the conflict is ended. That’s not because I love the current brutal authoritarian regime of Russia but because it could get worse. If it gets to be an internal power struggle, civil war, instability… the successor to Putin could be this dude: https://news.yahoo.com/owner-wagner-mercenary-group-could-195500949.html Methinks a weakened but not delirious and crazily dangerous Russia should be our goal. I think the lesson of Iraq should give us pause about gleefully toppling and radically destabilizing authoritarian regimes, particularly ones with 7000 nukes plus a 6900 other WMD / advanced military capabilities. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t think that the facts matter at all, 90% of the media, entertainment industry, most of academia and the administrative state will just ignore it, obfuscate it or spin it. Nothing will come of it except he won’t run again, nothing will come of the substantive allegations of influence peddling against him, his son or any members of his family. They (the 10-20%) of this country caught between the committed partisan 40ish percent on the left / right of which I’m a part have zero faith that they have thru their representatives in the government will up channel enough disapproval to convince them to do something. They’re too scared of losing what they have in this life, being cancelled or just are not affected by it right now so they DGAF. But I’m not cynical not one bit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'll agree with most on this thread that helping Ukraine has been a wise decision and continuing to help them is the best COA going forward at some point though there will come a point that it will not be in OUR interest to help them further considering the long game, namely the stabilization and recovery of Ukraine. We as their patron will need to say no more and let's conclude the hostilities like all conflicts end, in some kind of negotiations. We're not there yet but I think we can see an appropriate ending point in the next year. We may see that time before the Ukrainians do because their government and their relationship to their government is not the same as ours, I always keep in mind my admiration of the Ukranian people is different than the Ukranian government. That's all I want to say about that. All that said, where do we go from here as to what our enemies / competitors will have seen, learned and therefore will act on in the future? My suspicion is that the next map of Ukraine will look like this. Many countries will not recognize the territory taken by Russia but they will control them and incorporate them into the Russian Federation. My fear is that this will prove that aggression does to some extent work, albeit at a VERY high cost but if you are willing to pay for it you will get some of what you want. Territory, control of sea lanes, islands, etc.. you can get it if you will attack. With that in mind, besides making our allies into porcupines in these high tension areas of the work with healthy supplies of missiles, artillery, mines and next gen weapons (DE, tac drones, etc.) what should be our strategy/policy implications?

I can and it will just confirm what we already know...

This is pretty scary. The conditions are being set to escalate this into a much wider regional conflict. https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-sets-ultimatum-formally-pull-184620634.html False flag border attack ala Nazi Germany on Poland followed by short notice impossible ultimatum, Belarus is the aggrieved party with Russia riding to save them and we’re off… They may bring a bit to their fight but probably not much, guessing they would be used to free up more Russian troops for offensive operations while they guard the bases and already secured areas Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Meanwhile in Mexico... Light attack in action: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mexican-light-attack-plane-strafes-cartel-forces-after-arrest-of-el-chapos-son

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On a new Russian offensive, British analysis: Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I'm pessimistic about the war as I think they (Russians) have enough mobliks now and ammo to launch another offensive, really just to try to get Ukraine to negotiate and accept territorial concessions. Russia Seen as Preparing for Massive Winter Offensive in Ukraine, Including New Run on Kyiv | World Report | U.S. News (usnews.com) Another decent read on the Ukr / Rus war: Putin's War in Ukraine Is Brutal (It Looks Like the Crimean War) - 19FortyFive

Interested in guesses from this audience… War in Ukraine, how much longer do you think it will go before an armistice or a negotiation to a permanent settlement? My opinion it will last most of next year, past the summer. Russia is garnering forces, buying weapons, learning/adapting some. NOT a statement of support but my assessment. Ukraine is also, the war and likely final line of control will remain east of the Dneiper River. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

link to APC thread: Congratulations to First Officer Pettit - Airline Pilot Central Forums (airlinepilotforums.com)

Gotcha Concur with over manning in useless positions in staff positions with pilots and no disagreement on A1 not selling the assignment because they insanely believe they are not going to get the same / a bit more MILPERS in the next FY that they have been getting in the previous recent FYs. Yeah there's some risk taken but not an inordinate amount for the reward (filling critical manning) then you take risk, if you don't get the MILPERS you thought you were going to get, reprioritize as you spent some early and don't fund something else. Multiyear MPA tours are possible and can / should be advertised to attract volunteers and done so that the member could make plans to keep mama bear and cubs happy. I'm just ranting and not disagreeing that it won't scale, I'm just ranting because the AF again is confronted with a problem and just looks for ways and rules to keep itself from solving it.

Did not know that. Quite possible Get out your check book AF and you can fix this 1 - Hire for 2 year contracts ER / other aviation colleges grads for two year contracts or 750 training sorties. Incentivize timely production. 100k student loan repayment upon completion and with housing provided, pay per flight hour avg FO pay at an LCC. 2 - Offer 2-3 year MPA tours with 50k bonus per year as long TDYs to Guard and Reserve 3 - Recruit Army WO pilots You have the money in MILPERS, stop being miserly, if you wanna catch fish sometimes you just need more/better bait Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How is the AF not able to do this? The Army has DACs (dept of the army civilians) flying aircraft as instructors and just regular crew stateside for years Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk