Lord Ratner

One of the reasons these conversations are so unproductive is because people like you, clearly motivated by bitterness and spite, approach the solution from a position of vengeance. Intent matters, and if everything you say is dripping with contempt, then the possible policy solutions being suggested will be poisoned and fail. The best thing you could do, if you truly care about the issue, is to simply keep quiet. Just look at the last few years of your conversations here. What have you accomplished? Even when everyone is in agreement, you somehow find a way to turn it back into a fight. I was impressed when you admitted you were wrong during covid, but it doesn't appear to have had any meaningful effect on your overall disposition. If all you're shooting for is to feel superior, then by all means, carry on. At least then your actions are aligned with your intent. But if you're trying to change minds, you're just not the right tool for the job.

Yep, summerslide covers the estate tax concept. It's also worth reading his series that starts with "My life is a lie. He's not some sort of lifelong progressive who is just now finding the spotlight. His research has changed his perspective (and mine) rather profoundly, and I think it's identified a blind spot in a lot of wealthy and or conservative people's philosophy.

This one is sort of political, sort of economic, but does anybody follow Mike Green? His substack is "Yes I give a fig" and I'm pretty sure he's one of the most intelligent people I read. He's been in the news a bit because he's decided to deviate from his usual market and passive investing commentary and take a look at what's happening to the middle class. He recently put out a piece showing that the real poverty line, if you use similar assumptions to what was used in the '60s when it was created, is a hell of a lot closer to $100,000 a year than it is to to $35,000. There's a lot of nuance in there, but it's a fascinating theory. He most recently looked at why why there is such a divide between The haves and the have-nots, and he put it together in a three-piece article that I am pretty sure is in front of the paywall on substack. The short version is, bringing back a very aggressive estate tax maybe the only practical solution to the increasingly divided economy. Anyone who's interested in this type of thing, I strongly advise taking a look.

Yeah, but what is your point?

Yes that's exactly the point. If you're France, any increase in the price of a barrel of oil is bad. They produce practically nothing, so they exist as a pure consumer. The United States is not even remotely similar. While the price of oil going up obviously increases the price of anything using that supply chain, we also have a gargantuan oil industry, and increases in oil prices are excellent for a huge parts of our economy. We've also increased our capacity to export natural gas, which becomes more valuable internationally when the price of oil goes up. I also have to point out that your understanding of the oil industry is fairly juvenile if you think that there's just one oil price. Just because the price on the news is $100 per barrel does not mean that's what everybody is paying, or buying, or refining. It's not the dumbest thing I've heard, but it's pretty dumb.

That's life. We don't do nothing never we can't do everything. This isn't a Iraq, a country that was by and large doing nothing to the United States in the early 2000s. This is Iran, the country that has been actively and perniciously attacking us for decades. If your analogy holds, and the children of the Ayatollah attempt revenge, how is that materially different? In this case, the worst case scenario is the status quo. It's just not the same as the forever wars we were used to.

Agreed, but the same logic applies. Forecasts of doom and chaos are worthless when the doom and chaos never comes. Your entire point is hypothetical. Maybe you'll be right. But so far the anti-interventionists have been wrong on basically every single Trump engagement, especially WRT Iran. And they can't spell out exactly how this goes sideways. What, we get another Islamo-fascist regime, but with no credibility or military might left by which to threaten the world? Oil goes up because the production of a country viral to our biggest enemy (China) was squashed and the American energy complex gets more money and power? That doesn't mean you should keep quiet. It just means there's not yet any reason to believe the sky-is-falling crowd. If we send in the infantry, I'll happily be the first to agree with you. As of yet there's no evidence we're planning that, and you can't hide troop movements like that. Too many people are still shell shocked from the failures of Afghanistan/Iraq that they are conflating all military intervention with nation-building. Now, if we send in the men with beards to capture and control Kharg Island, all the better. The message is pretty clear to anyone who is listening. Fuck with the US, and we will take your stuff and kill you. I for one am a big fan of that message. If my neighbor woke up every morning and threw rocks at my wife and kids while they left for school, promising to rape and murder them when they got home, I'd light his house on fire and execute him as he fled the flames.

Good time to be a gun store owner in Virginia

Ah yes, the hardcore fucking of a... **checks markets**... 4% drawdown. From astronomical highs. Like the economic disaster from Ukraine? Or the social catastrophe that followed Maduro's capture? Or the military disaster of the summer attacks on Iran? How many times does the philosophy have to be wrong before you question the philosophy itself?

He does indeed. And unfortunately that doesn't really mean much. He could have 10 million followers like some of the bigger science YouTubers, and it still wouldn't matter. It's all about ad prints. Don't get me wrong, there aren't many people I would rate higher as a friend, co-worker, or all around bro then John. I have another friend who makes about $50,000 a month on YouTube. All he posts are reaction videos of him watching videos of women doing or saying stupid shit while he overlays an incel/misogynist narrative with goofy sound effects included. It's the most cringy, immature shit imaginable. And he absolutely despises his followers, just like he despises the alpha male, diet-Andrew-Tate persona he puts on to make these videos, two a day, 5 days a week. Funnily enough, he's actually a pussy whipped bitch if you ever see him around his wife, but online he's a perfectly manicured toxic male. The algorithm cares only about engagement, and nothing drives engagement better than rage, jealousy, and inadequacy. It's also just wildly unproductive for society for someone as talented and driven as John to waste even 5 seconds of his time making YouTube more money 🤷🏻‍♂️

Ugh. John is a great dude but man am I tired of everyone trying to be an influencer.

Disagree on Patel. I haven't found a better measure of a politician's value than their ability to handle a long-form podcast. Patel is not perfect, and he engages too much in the Twitter chest thumping nonsense that has become the status quo, but he's able to speak intelligently on anything he's asked, and he has guiding principals. That doesn't mean you have to agree with those principles, but it's refreshing that a politician at this point can even spell out what guides them in their decision making. And I don't find any of the frat bro stuff off-putting. I'm tired of politicians pretending like they're formal and keeping all of their immature/illegal/immoral nonsense behind closed doors. Just be honest about it at this point. I trust an FBI director who can smash a beer with an Olympic team a hell of a lot more than the colonels and generals we dealt with while we were in the military who pretended like they had never had a drop of alcohol once they were in power.

He's the hero we deserve, but not the one we need right now.