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All good points. And I agree with your napkin math. Would need an absolutely massive amount of Schlitz to effect the desired regime change outcome at this point. And on the Putin/Trump comparison , I totally agree except that Putin probably has more public support for the massive mobilizations because the threat of nato on the doorstep of Russia is at least a bit more of a real threat to everyday Russians than Iran nuking NYC or whatever the war hawks want you to believe was imminent about this for us. Still my biggest frustration with this war is that you and I can sit here and do napkin math that was pretty obvious to anyone with half a brain, but this war was pitched as a “quick in and out, 20 minute adventure.” Which means those pitching it are either: A) literally so stupid they never deserve to be listened to again on matters of military and foreign policy or (more likely) B) desired/foresaw the “managed instability” outcome and deliberately lied about how feasible this was to rope us into a war that would inevitably trend in that direction.

Got it back today!! God is good! Still no submission deadline announced but a huge weight off my shoulder with this completed. Will be finalizing packet and sending it over to the Squadron.

Yup, there is no tomorrow for the revolutionary government of the Iran if they lose hence why they spent 40 years getting ready for this. I did my own bar napkin math and I came up with a 1 million man fighting force to take, occupy and pacify Iran. Probably supported by another 1 million+ military members, 100+ CAPs, 3 carrier battle groups, etc… basically a doubling of the DOW budget, conscription required, the kitchen sink, etc… we can’t or won’t do that. We would end America as we know it, I’m not even opposed to military action against Iran to forestall nuclear weapons development but I know that if we decided that regime change is the only way to guarantee that the revolutionary Islamic government of Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, we would destroy our country in the process unless we as a country through a popular process decided this was worth it. One party making it their explicit policy, winning an election cycle and then executing it. I doubt that will happen so a lesser approach is likely required. My policy and strategy recommendations would be to consistently degrade conventional capabilities, factor and prioritize minimal collateral damage, deny economic resources to the regime; begin the diplomatic effects to isolate the regime; establish a new Iranian government in absentia that is a visible alternative to the revolutionary Islamic one and settle in for a multi year effort to collapse the regime. Did Israel trick us into attacking Iran? No. Did they encourage us to? Yes. The Venn diagram of Israel’s interests and America’s interests do overlap in Iran not having a nuclear weapons capability but Israel’s interest in this is much larger than ours, hence why they pulled every lever to get us to go kinetic. Others encouraged the administration to attack too, Israel was only part of the coalition. Totally neutral in that statement, I like the Israelis but don’t see them as infallible or without parochial interests either, they are a good ally mostly but not angels either, proceed accordingly. The Irony is the analogous behavior of President Trump and President Putin, both had successful military ops before that IMO encouraged them to try the big one. Putin had the successful operation taking Crimea and Trump had Midnight Hammer and Venezuela, they both misinterpreted the successes of those very different focused missions and thought they were indicators of likely success in a major conventional campaign. Nope, not unless you gear up and commit your country to a major military campaign, you’ll not lose what you start but you won’t win either. Putin has obviously gotten close to that total mobilization required if you want to win but even he thinks that is likely more than his nation will support. President Trump hasn’t even hinted at what would likely be required and/or doing that.

That's fair. You need something to clean the guns with.

Great article. I think the most insightful part is where he talks about the conditions that lead to a “managed instability” situation: I think another condition that can lead to this state of “managed instability” is an arrogant superpower who thinks it will be a quick intervention but the country they attack perceives it as an existential threat to their existence. At that point you have the more powerful country in the conflict half assing it and the less powerful country whole assing it, which creates semi-parity and leads to battlefield/strategic stagnation. The obvious follow up question to that is who led these superpowers to believe these would be quick and easy interventions, and what their motives might be. As for the CNN ‘Iran losing control of the strait argument.’ I find it utterly unconvincing. So we’ve had some ships transit an Omani route under full emcon get through. Sweet. That’s hardly a return to normal and honestly it’s a tacit admission that Iran still absolutely has the ability to threaten normal ops through the waterway. Which was the whole point all along. No one ever said Iran controlled the strait. All they have to do is hold traffic in there at risk enough to cause disruptions that they can use for leverage. It’s not gonna be long before they figure out a kill chain for ships that aren’t squawking and are a few miles further away.. if they haven’t already.. and then we’re back to square one. All the while we’re now committed to an enduring naval presence in the strait to hopefully claw our way back to something that (maybe) resembles the original status quo.

I'm onboard with all that and have stockpiled accordingly but I would like to add Irish whiskey to the list.

And we took off uphill...both ways!

https://youtu.be/_sxhKsFtflc?si=gNMzFqrz1wexLAg3 Decent drop vid from the CSO's

Concur all. I have shot a YHM Turbo-K RB at Quiet in the Capitol, an annual free suppressed-only shooting event hosted by Capitol Armory in the Austin area to "test-fire firearms equipped with suppressors from many major manufacturers, speak with industry representatives, and compare products before purchasing" a couple of years back, and thought it was perfect for my needs. Suppressors being part of the NFA is ridiculous, I don't think even SBRs/SBSs belong on that list. In fact, none of it does; but suppressors have nothing to with organized crime (the original alleged purpose of the Act) nor did it increase accountability and traceability for "particularly powerful or concealable weapons." The GCA of 1968, in response to the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Senator Robert F. Kennedy, is equally idiotic. There is NO definitive proof that either Act reduced gun crime. The biggest drivers of the decline in gun-related crime appear to be improved policing, the end of the crack era that fueled much of the violence in the 1980s and early 1990s, demographic shifts and other social changes such as the increased incarceration of repeat violent offenders rather than any single gun-control law. But back to the point, once the ATF pulls its cranium out of its fourth point-of-contact, I will be likely be running to my favorite LGS to pick up two supressors as quickly as I can. I've put it off for far too long, and the removal of a Form 4 will be the catalyst of my next spending spree!

"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition!" ~~ Rudyard Kipling

Hawaii returned on the air, the 18th last evening after power was restored. Operation is normal.

More specifically, my G19 is set up the same as the FFDO weapon. I only carry the extra magazine when doing security at church.

Commuter worthy read https://warontherocks.com/managed-instability-why-the-wars-against-iran-and-ukraine-can-go-on-and-on-and-on/

Yup. Its just better in every aspect for almost every gun. Especially long days on the range.

Honestly, get both. Not just because more is better 🤣😂. You're getting too fundamentally different shooting experiences with the two suppressors you mentioned. With 22 you can have the spooky silent experience, which is really neat. Especially if you put it on a bolt action rifle. My buddy and I were out at the range recently and it was quieter than a normal volume conversation. 556 is supersonic, so it's not going to be quiet per se, but it does dramatically improve the shooting experience. You'll still want hearing protection on if you're the one shooting, but when my friends shoot suppressed 556, as long as I'm 10 or more feet away, hearing protection is optional. If you insist on only getting one, get whichever one you shoot more. My intention is to convert as many of my weapons over to suppressed as possible. It's just more enjoyable to shoot suppressed. Kind of makes me angry, because if the NFA hadn't included silencers for the last hundred years, it's crazy to think of how much quieter all firearms would be in general as suppressor technology would be incorporated at a base level. Oh well, at least now that can happen.

I went by my local gun shop on Monday and as they still haven't received guidance from the ATF on the ruling, they are still requiring a Form 4 for suppressors. The owner, a bud, recommended waiting a week or so until said guidance is received. Many FFLs are doing the same. However, another bud randomly walked in while I was there and bought his first suppressor. He was in an out in about an hour, they took care of all the application requirements and it was approved while he waited. This caused two dilemmas for me, am I OK with the ATF having a record of my NFA item via the Form 4, or do I wait until all that is needed is a 4473 which stays with my local gun store unless they close shop. The second is do I buy my first suppressor (yes, I am lagging on this due to the NFA registration) for a .22 (which I am more likely to use) or my 5.56 hopefully-soon legal SBR (if Form 1s follow suite on the same ruling)? I have debated getting a suppressor for years, mainly due to the NFA documentation. I had a bad experience when the ATF allowed pistol braces to be registered without the $200 tax stamp (before the Big Beautiful Bill nullified that). They screwed up my paperwork and I just forgot about that until I got a rejection notice in the mail two years later. I was not going to refile at that point as the brace worked for my needs and I didn’t want to go through that headache again even though I knew it would be easier the second time around. At this point, I’m just going to wait. I know there will be a mad run on suppressors once the ATF puts out its guidance, but I’m in no rush. Much like my SBR, it’s a nicety but not anything I absolutely must have; and I can be patient...

https://archive.ph/ Though in this case I did not need a subscription to CNN to read it

Anybody have a CNN subscription (lol) so we can have access to the full article and can see the actual argument here? I’d love to hear some good news but forgive me if I’m wary of war predictions from both viperman and 18-year CNN editors who happen to be Jewish seminary grads

Things aren't going well for Iran. You know this because this is the front page headliner on CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil Iran can inflict short term pain, yes. In the end, they will have fiddled themselves into irrelevancy.

I have an identical set-up. I have the pistol next to my Surefire and the glowing rear sights make it easy to find both the pistol and the flashlight in the dark.

About dang time for your squadron. Once that application is off, it feels like a weight off your back. Now just keep crushing it in the squadron and try to forget you submitted! Haha

Same, if you’re rated, just use your current 2992 from most recent PHA.

i used mine from my PHA

What 2992 are you guys using ? The one that came with the 2808 and 422 or the annual PHA 2992? This is the first time I’ve seen a 2992 specifically for IFC1.

That “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” Beach Boys song works really good with Oman too as it turns out