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Everything posted by jice

  1. Sorry, I’m dense. Could you elaborate? No sarcasm intended at all, just completely tumbleweed re: this line of comments.
  2. jice

    WTF? (**NSFW**)

    You said that, but a half dozen on this board heard (in your voice): “Spoilers! SPOILERS!! Yoke aft! Level the wings! Centerline, left wing up...Spoilers!!!”
  3. Better yet, teach them to fish: “this jacket cost the government an arm and a leg because it is specially constructed to keep rain, cold air, hot air, fire, and your bullshit use our of time away from my body. I don’t need you to dive into rules in an effort to make/second guess decisions; this is how the jacket is worn. How are your airmen doing today? Can any young’uns benefit from your experience to solve a new problem? Anybody need help with something in their lives other than getting dressed? Is there any stupidity or missing the point that I can help squash for you?” (but really without being a dick)
  4. For those units who do buy contacts, what money is used to purchase? Is this something that folks should be putting on the spend list at the end of the fiscal year in units that don’t buy contacts? Also, I’ve been in units whose AFE shop stocks approved contact lens solution, which saved each near-sighted flyer a hundred bucks or so over the course of the year. Whoever thought of that was really looking out for the bros.
  5. True, but it also means that ops folks will still have input on combat support boards, which I don’t think is something we’d be willing to give up. The proof will be in how the rates are distributed.
  6. Sure, talk is cheap. The corollary is “influence is expensive.” In this case, in particular, given the relatively small footprint to sustain a relationship that provided outsized influence, IMO we’ve made a strategic error. Afghanistan, Iraq, Iranian deterrence, and Syria writ large is a different question.
  7. Nsplayer answered this above pretty well. It doesn’t have to be thousands of troops or continuous rotations of airplanes. It does have to be stable for our allies, consistent for our adversaries, and give the diplomats something to work with. It can even be assurances and threats. But what it cannot be is ceding the negotiating space to those who do not share our interests. Assurances are now worthless with that particular group and threats toward Turkey, Russia, or the Syrian Regime (Russia) don’t hold the same weight when we’ve taken our skin in the game elsewhere. “Your actions put American lives at risk” and “Your actions put our relationship at risk” are very different with regard to their implicit teeth.
  8. Spot on, bro. Furthermore! They’re not fending for themselves; as it turns out survival instinct has kicked in and they appear to have aligned themselves with the Syrian regime and Russia to attempt to prevent annihilation. (Just as they said they would under these circumstances.) Now Russia and Turkey are in the driver’s seat where Europe meets the Middle-East and we’ve got the diplomatically envied position of “it’s too difficult so we quit” from which to negotiate. Do we really want Russia and Turkey to be the primary voices in the endgame of this misadventure? 20 years? 30 years? On 9-12 any of us would have volunteered personally to go for 100; the long game is worth winning, considering the alternatives.
  9. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-troops-withdraw-from-another-syrian-town-as-turkish-forces-block-supply-lines/2019/10/13/aab5fab8-ec5a-11e9-a329-7378fbfa1b63_story.html Cliffnote: SDF reaches a Russian brokered deal with the Syrian regime to resist the Turkish incursion... Maybe we’ll get lucky and Turkey will shoot down a(nother) Fencer or three, Russia will retaliate directly, and Erdogan will have parlayed an attack on US allies into an Article 5 crisis. How did we even get here?
  10. Loss history and presence of risk are very different things; different again when mitigation of either is largely beyond the entity’s control. Are you suggesting that Aramco/the Saudis are intentionally prolonging tensions or that they were no kidding complicit in recent attacks?
  11. I mean, if our national interests depend on it for like... ever shouldn’t we be saying: “it’s a new world, I can prove it!” ? I mean really prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we can guarantee the same lethality of the Force through short pipeline initiatives? (Note: did not say lethality of the individual aircrew. I think most have a sense, without science, that losses would increase, but there’s likely a crossover point for end results in a choice between more aircrew and better aircrew. I’m sure RAND has done the math on it...? Sucks to suck or have your training suck. Likely not a conversation anybody is willing to have in public until a big war.)
  12. What kind of back-end safety analysis are you planning on? Have you got a real statistician to validate the method and results? (Serious question, not a spear) Will there be a column for “how much did you lie in order for this thing to look normal?” Back end analysis is something aircrew is great at, but for most of us involves fistfuls of singles.
  13. https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/2019/08/08/cape-air-eviation-alice-electric-plane Cape Air Seems like a cool little airline, but I hope they’re making the right bets on their new Tecnam and this thing with props on the wingtips. How do you think it will handle the island winds?
  14. Awesome points; would be interested to see how many airframes would be required to generate an air bridge to sustain something like that. Asking because I’ve got no concept: Do you think it would be possible to surge and provide that type of flexible resupply (assuming the admin were no factor) for any period of time with the current fleet? What would need to change if no? Is that something the MAF thinks about/trains for? Happy to exchange .mil/other via PM if you’re more comfortable answering there.
  15. If we’re talking adaptive basing for survivability, we don’t need bathrooms, food, etc. We need airlift that takes off when the shooters do, survives one volley, and sustains one more iteration of the enemy removing pieces from the map while we do the same to them. We can’t assume our traditional command and control mechanisms will be intact. Comm might be limited to LOS radios and signal panels. Meaningful quantity at that point is one combat load of fuel and weapons because the enemy’s weapons are inbound X minutes/hours after we land. Totally spitballing (not an airlift expert), but a train of light(ish) airlift to deliver enough for one more sortie, taking off with the direction of “find and resupply with priorities X, Y, X” seems like a likely solution in this nightmare scenario. You’re absolutely right about only being able to move the fight as fast as the logistics tail, but if we need to fight an away game against a near peer, we need that logistics tail move faster than the targeting cycle of the adversary’s medium to long range weapons.
  16. Fair point, but consider this through the lens of a scenario driving “adaptive basing” for survivability. [Don’t miss that one if you’re playing buzzword bingo at home]. The whole thing falls down under the extraordinarily centralized logistics plans we have now, but if we want to maximize (have?) offensive AirPower options after one adversary targeting cycle we’re going to need to sacrifice our current efficiency maximized system (laugh if you want) for a resiliency/flexibility maximized system. If a byproduct of that is a low intensity capability that fills gaps and increases flexibility: that’s great. The response to “they’re not supporting us” under that construct is: “we’re continuing to support like before, but are now able to provide armed American jets overhead in a high intensity conflict.” Lots of elephants in the room with the adaptive basing flavor of the week in general and with this in particular (where do the crews, airframes and money come from?), but dedicated rather than centralized logistics is a COA that may solve some problems.
  17. If you kill someone you’re a murderer? I don’t think you mean that. Even paying taxes isn’t as black and white as the example you want... I doubt it exists. Totally with you re: mandatory sentences for DUI being a bad idea, but also think mandatory sentences in general are a bad idea for exactly the reasons you talk about for DUI. We’re all about mandatory sentences for the future crimes hypothetical people will commit in ways that match our worst fears, but then real people in the real world get in the way. If the punishment depends on the words that name the act and not the act itself, there will be problems.
  18. Good luck to you. I hope you’re able to always get it right, like you expect.
  19. As far as the law is concerned those people are legitimately innocent. Just to restate for clarity: Somebody under your command could be found ‘not guilty’ for a crime they are accused of committing, but you would throw the book at them to the max extent based on your understanding of the events? What makes you more qualified than the court to determine guilt and the person’s future likelihood to commit said crime (or be accused)? I hope I don’t work for you. Edit to add: there very well may be times that that outcome (not guilty in court with admin action/njp) is appropriate... but I just can’t wrap my head around that approach as a going in argument when the matters in question (wrt the law and your commander’s prerogative) are the same.
  20. 100% until proven guilty. Whether the circumstances warrant administrative action is another story... but writing that story before the legal case settles is unfortunate. I’m not sure why we’re so spring loaded to fire/punish before the legal case is settled. If “we’re going to get all the facts out in trial/through due process” is not an acceptable answer to you or your boss, maybe you or your boss should spend a while thinking about your commitment to the constitution. There also may be times when relieving somebody of duties is in their best interest in order to focus on the legal battle, but a press release probably isn’t necessary in that case That said: There aren’t many more selfish decisions than drinking and driving.
  21. Completely agree re: the do more with less. Also interested in how much of this is an “uphill both ways” emotional bias. I’m sure if I could instruct 10 years ago me today I’d be disappointed. (Despite being the best pilot I know, obviously.) To try to cut through some of that: does anybody have a historical example of UPT producing a better product than the year before?
  22. LTs are brilliant, but this isn’t their area of expertise. If you need to talk your way out of an accidental drunken home invasion: they’re your experts. “It looks just like my house, and of course I piss in the living room; don’t you?!” Kick ass, and don’t give up something you want. Being old just means you’ll spend less time than the average stud figuring out how to be an officer. (Which is good because it will take you more time to memorize things than your 23 year old classmates. Also longer to pee.) The SRO thing isn’t anything new: Help the LTs prioritize, run rumor/made-up-crisis control, (gently/delicately) point out AETC douchery so they don’t think it’s normal, and help/call/show up when they have admin issues on base. Things you would do for any new guys anywhere else. If you work hard and have a little luck and timing on your side, you’ll get what you want. If you don’t get the luck, there’s a 95% chance you’ll be in love with your airframe in a year anyway. If you’re not, the U-2, B-2 and other selective hiring units will still be hiring.
  23. Open kimono time: I make unwanted sexual passes at my wife almost daily. Sometimes dressed as a jet pilot, sometimes as a guy, sometimes with an open kimono which is actually a towel too small to fit around my fat ass. Phew, glad we got that out there in case I talk to anybody ever. Wouldn’t want to tank anybody’s career.
  24. Did this on the last PCS, though the location was >4.5 hours away. You can have your stuff moved anywhere you want. The government will reimburse up to the amount it would have cost to move to your next duty station. It was pretty easy to accomplish: just tell TMO where the movers will take your stuff. Tell the movers where to take your stuff. As always, exceptions and waivers may apply.
  25. So... same plan except bomb the shit out of them first? How many Al Gore bumper stickers went on cars on 9/12/01?
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