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MilitaryToFinance

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MilitaryToFinance last won the day on November 10 2015

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About MilitaryToFinance

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  1. And Citadel hired a bunch of planes to spray chemtrails all over the country. They're probably the ones sneaking fluoride into our water too. There are actual regulatory reasons why Robinhood and a number of other brokers did what they did on Thursday. And once you think about the mechanics of shorting a stock it is quite easy to understand how the shares short can be greater than the free float. But it seems people are having more fun ranting and raving about "the elites" so I won't let explanations spoil the fun.
  2. I'm not a fan of really hoppy/bitter beers personally. But if you want something with some kick, the Tank 7 from Boulevard Brewing is really good. 8.5% alcohol, Belgian style saison which admittedly some people hate. It's a KC brewing company but I can find it at my grocery store in NY from time to time so has pretty wide distribution. https://www.boulevard.com/beerinfo/tank-7-farmhouse-ale/
  3. On behalf of those of us in NY, please don't give Steve Cohen ideas for his new stadium...
  4. Someone in the PA office forgot to log back into their personal twitter account. Didn't take long.
  5. Yeah I expected a slow recovery but this has been worse that I initially thought as well. The interesting thing about the daily graph, that is impossible to see in the picture, is the weekly cadence. The year over year declines is consistently worse on Tues/Wed compared to Thurs-Sun of the same weeks. So recreational travel flights are coming back faster than business travel that happens mid-week. Even with a vaccine I wonder how much that business travel will recover. Clearly it will snap higher than today because I talk to plenty of companies who complain that they really do need to go visit
  6. Not to be Debbie Downer but this is so much worse than 9/11 for the industry. After 9/11 RPMs dropped ~35% and were down ~30% for the next 5 months before slowly recovering from there. 6 months in right now and things are still twice as bad as the worst of the 9/11 shock. Yes the industry will find a balance and these numbers will improve but at what level and how many planes do we need today vs. a year ago? Now that the furlough protections from the Fed bailouts are going away I think things are going to get ugly even with the airlines getting more funding.
  7. Not sure if this belongs here or in the airlines thread. Qantas is sending their final 747 off to the graveyard and the pilot took the opportunity to draw a kangaroo in the sky on his way out.
  8. I ended up selling my preferred stock a few weeks after our previous discussion in June 2019 so I haven't paid as close attention over the last year. I would say there have been some concrete steps made in moving forward with the plan to get out of conservatorship. They have reserves against foreclosures right now and I don't really see it getting bad enough to cause a big problem for them. I'm more concerned about retail backed properties and some office values than I am residential mortgages. My biggest concern with FNMA/FMCC right now is the election. If Trump wins you probably get them rel
  9. SPACs have terrible track records when bought at NAV and "better burger" restaurants are a dime a dozen now with almost no barriers to entry. If you're treating this like a penny stock promotion and hoping the squeeze keeps running so you can sell to a greater fool tomorrow that's always possible. If you think you're getting a value buying it at over $18 before the deal even closes I think you should do some more detailed research and reassess your valuation.
  10. Taking everything with a grain of salt knowing their obvious bias I'm not sure how much interesting was said. Todd was the most aggressive about buybacks but it was mentioned a few times. He also pulled out the MAGA card at the end which was amusing. Lots of discussion on how firm the "no furloughs" stance really is. General consensus that the government needs to mandate (not just issue guidelines) PPE requirements so people will feel safe traveling. Southwest rep seemed to imply they had too many pilots going into this mess but I'm not sure if he misspoke in his opening remarks or I misunders
  11. The heads of the major pilot unions are speaking at a conference today. If there is any interest in hearing what they are saying to people outside the industry I can pass along some notes.
  12. Bashi pretty much hit the nail on the head but if you still own it, sell it today. They suspending creation of units, the whole ETF is broken and is now trading at a premium to NAV which should not happen. It is very likely this ETF is worth $0 in a month. No matter how much you already lost, you will probably lose 100% of what you have left if you continue to hold it.
  13. I'm not a big fan of the index here. It's still quite expensive, in fact if you look at revised estimates for 2020 earnings you are paying the same P/E today as you were at the market peak in early February. Hardly a steal. We're also still at almost 2x Sales when historic average is 1.5x and that's on trailing revenues. There are some interesting cheap stocks out there although I would avoid airlines and casinos given poor balance sheets and incredibly high operating leverage. The government bailout of the airlines includes warrants which are massively dilutive to the equity in or
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