Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Lawman]

you guys are focused on the wrong threat.
it was never russia.
it has always been china.
and now china is buying russian oil and gas at a discount

Most of their Siberian wellheads are maintained with western assistance. https://delano.lu/article/russia-depends-on-western-tech

https://cepa.org/article/sanctions-against-russia-are-more-effective-than-skeptics-suggest/

They aren’t being maintained and the Russians are in danger of not having a way to export them with the freeze on insurance and exporting vessels by western nations. (Again results of unified sanctions). They can’t make that difference up with the Chinese which despite volume will never match the peak high end tech that was lost.

We can see Russian industrial accidents from space right now. They’ve been increasing in frequency since this war started. They may export energy as a raw product but they import the technical expertise that allowed them to actually pump it out of the ground. The outcome of a mass exodus of that resource is kinda predictable

And if you’re China right now you have to weigh the idea of being belligerent and triggering massive unified sanctions when you are simultaneously the worlds largest importer of energy and more importantly food. That’s in addition to seeing how your Russian derived tech systems cope when dealing with western weapons.


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[BashiChuni]

so if they depend on western assistance who do you think they will turn to for help? hmmmmmmmmmm

look i hope you guys are right i really do, but based on the foreign policy of the united states post WWII i'm not holding my breath.

ukraine isn't worth starting WW3.

[Lawman]

so if they depend on western assistance who do you think they will turn to for help? hmmmmmmmmmm
look i hope you guys are right i really do, but based on the foreign policy of the united states post WWII i'm not holding my breath.
ukraine isn't worth starting WW3.

See now you’re back to being ignorant or at the very least obtuse.

“Who will they turn to….”

What the hell is that even supposed to mean. If your assertion is they need the west to give them long term sustainment of their economy then that points to the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool of foreign policy. If you are trying to assert that the Chinese will simply step in and laterally equal western tech and expertise or economic consumption you are grossly ignorant of the reality here. Simply put the Chinese can’t do that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/business/china-russia-ukraine-sanctions-economy.html

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/china-russia-war-ukraine-taiwan-putin-xi

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[BashiChuni]

can we quit the name calling? be better than what you're typing out.

they'll turn to the Chinese. and the Chinese will benefit from buying Russian energy at a discount. keep underestimating your enemies!

[Lawman]

can we quit the name calling? be better than what you're typing out.
they'll turn to the Chinese. and the Chinese will benefit from buying Russian energy at a discount. keep underestimating your enemies!

If you doubled not just the Chinese, but entire Asian consumption of Russian petroleum exports tomorrow it wouldn’t equal half the loss of their European markets.

On top of that they don’t have the capacity to move that same scale of oil into China and wouldn’t even if every proposed pipeline was open (only 1 currently runs out of the Siberian fields). They have to make up all the difference of intake largely in sea transport of oil. Goes back to the whole insurance and financial capital problem.

No simply “turning to the Chinese” isn’t an economically viable solution, neither are the Chinese capable of supporting them with the same level of technical expertise at the scale they need to keep their industry afloat. China makes tech at volume with largely stolen Intellectual property, not at quality. There is a reason the Siberian oil explorations dropped off a cliff after the 2014 invasion of Crimea, and there wasn’t some state run Chinese energy company just waiting in the wings to swing in and gobble up the excess.

And that doesn’t even touch that whole worlds largest importer of food problem, which is an issue if you’re using excess capital to prop up a neighboring power at the same time your industrial labor costs skyrocket and your internal demographics collapse.

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[BashiChuni]

all of what you just typed out may well be correct

to me that's just cornering the wild animal(s) into the corner...both russia and china

proceed with caution...

nation states do desperate things when their economy/resources are threatened. especially nuclear armed ones...a fact many of you take lightly and dismiss

Edited March 8, 2023 by BashiChuni

[Lord Ratner]

10 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

nation states do desperate things when their economy/resources are threatened. especially nuclear armed ones...a fact many of you take lightly and dismiss

Can you give one example of a nuclear armed country getting desperate and using nukes?

 

I can think of an example where a Russian speaking empire, armed to the gills with nukes, went through an economic collapse and didn't nuke anyone.

 

And of course doesn't rule out of the alternative, but you just made a declarative statement about what desperate, nuclear armed nations do, based on nothing at all.

[Lawman]

all of what you just typed out may well be correct
to me that's just cornering the wild animal(s) into the corner...both russia and china
proceed with caution...
nation states do desperate things when their economy/resources are threatened. especially nuclear armed ones...a fact many of you take lightly and dismiss

“May be”

F it man you’ve been provided no shortage of people and sources demonstrating yes what I’m saying is in fact correct.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1093121762/russias-oil-drilling-plans-may-be-in-jeopardy-without-the-wests-support

We know what dollar amounts and total volumes that move where because it’s a global financial market. There isn’t some mystery about intake in Europe vs intake in Asia or the fact that the infrastructure just isn’t there. Again these weren’t some Soviet era state secret industries, Shell and Exxon were the ones doing the work for them.


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[BashiChuni]

i can give an example of WWI starting from a regional conflict

Japan starting WWII in search of natural resources

i guess we are about to see what two nuclear armed countries will do when pushed into a corner. lot of tough guy talk coming from you guys

[BashiChuni]

1 minute ago, Lawman said:

“May be”

F it man you’ve been provided no shortage of people and sources demonstrating yes what I’m saying is in fact correct.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1093121762/russias-oil-drilling-plans-may-be-in-jeopardy-without-the-wests-support

We know what dollar amounts move where because it’s a global financial market. There isn’t some mystery about intake in Europe vs intake in Asia or the fact that the infrastructure just isn’t there. Again these weren’t some Soviet era state secret industries, Shell and Exxon were the ones doing the work for them.


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holy fuck the irony....FROM THE LINK YOU JUST POSTED:

"Russia's oil drilling plans may be in jeopardy without the West's support"

 

so yes....MAY BE

[Lawman]

holy the irony....FROM THE LINK YOU JUST POSTED:
"Russia's oil drilling plans may be in jeopardy without the West's support"
 
so yes....MAY BE

That article was from April of last year.

Do we need to get you a Calendar for when and what sanctions ramped up and how?

Here’s one from January since time appears to be an abstract concept for you
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3808910-european-oil-sanctions-costing-russia-172-million-per-day-report-says/amp/

There are plans to push that as high as 500 million a day in losses. But simultaneous we need more supply output from OPEC or we can upend more fragile economies currently on our side. Having a relatively mild winter in Europe doesn’t hurt and coming into the warmer season sees renewed ability by the Euro sector to keep demand lower.

[BashiChuni]

you know i'll tell ya....the arrogance coming from this officer corps is stunning

we took the 'L' in iraq and afg, but sure let's talk tough to russia and china. you guys wanting to stick our nose in a situation with no clear resolution other than escalation and world war.

totally foolish. and not in the interest of the united states.

[BashiChuni]

19 minutes ago, Lawman said:

That article was from April of last year.

Do we need to get you a Calendar for when and what sanctions ramped up and how?

Here’s one from January since time appears to be an abstract concept for you
https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/3808910-european-oil-sanctions-costing-russia-172-million-per-day-report-says/amp/

There are plans to push that as high as 500 million a day in losses. But simultaneous we need more supply output from OPEC or we can upend more fragile economies currently on our side. Having a relatively mild winter in Europe doesn’t hurt and coming into the warmer season sees renewed ability by the Euro sector to keep demand lower.

"The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the forthcoming penalties on refined products could take a significant economic toll on Moscow"

i'm seeing a lot of "could" and "may" in these articles tough guy

[Lawman]

"The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the forthcoming penalties on refined products could take a significant economic toll on Moscow"
i'm seeing a lot of "could" and "may" in these articles tough guy

Well you’re definitively predicting a nuclear war if we continue doing what hasn’t produced one in the year it’s been going on. Or that the Chinese will save them despite seeming to be woefully unaware of all the problems they are facing in the near and far term.

And now you want to make this some Os vs Es nonsense because what? I’m a W anyway, so I’d call out stupidity regardless of it’s rank.


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[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

a situation with no clear resolution other than escalation and world war.

Or, you know, Russia going back to their country. That would be pretty clear, and much better for Russia than either escalation or nuclear war.

 

 

[ViperMan]

6 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

what if russia wins?

Do you sincerely think this war would still be raging if Russia could win? Like, for real? Dude, come on. No. This "war" is now about Putin's pride and him being able to save face. Russia ain't winning shit.

Flip the script. 1991. It's taken us a year and a month and we're still not all the way to Baghdad. We've lost a 100,000 troops. Untold more have been maimed. Would you still think our victory was right around the corner if the shoe was on the other foot? It sounds like you would be quite the cheer leader. Victory is right around the corner!

Get real. Putin has lost. I mean holy shit, it hasn't even devolved into a state of insurgency yet. Putin doesn't have a guaranteed victory. It is far more likely that this war ends in a stalemate ala the Korean War.

[Lawman]

Do you sincerely think this war would still be raging if Russia could win? Like, for real? Dude, come on. No. This "war" is now about Putin's pride and him being able to save face. Russia ain't winning shit.
Flip the script. 1991. It's taken us a year and a month and we're still not all the way to Baghdad. We've lost a 100,000 troops. Untold more have been maimed. Would you still think our victory was right around the corner if the shoe was on the other foot? It sounds like you would be quite the cheer leader. Victory is right around the corner!
Get real. Putin has lost. I mean holy shit, it hasn't even devolved into a state of insurgency yet. Putin doesn't have a guaranteed victory. It is far more likely that this war ends in a stalemate ala the Korean War.

I mean there is in fact a way the Russians can win this, and that’s the west pulling back it’s industrial capacity and economic support for the Ukrainians and making this a simple attritional arithmetic.

At that point it’s simply Ukrainian casualties and ammo consumption vs Russian casualties and ammo consumption and last man standing wins. That is still a fight that as bloody as it would go the Russians are more than willing to take as a “win.” This is a society comfortable with casualties to accomplish a means in a way we in the west simply can’t fathom. Same as a 27 million casualty victory sounds insane to us, but they celebrate it in their text books. They also leave out all the ways they were economically propped up to win the great patriotic war by our economic capacity. At one point the Russians were “winning” against the Wehrmacht… in a 6 to 1 exchange in casualties against them.

The Western powers absolutely cannot afford to succumb to the isolation and apathy preached by some and back off on the support because it’s the one thing the Russian don’t have in abundance and can’t simply muscle over. The worst thing going on now is the fight over Bakhmut is sapping combat power the Ukrainians could be using come spring to launch more offensives. The Russians know this which is why they are happy to lob bullet sponges in the form of their prison conscripts because what does that cost them compared to its effect of soaking up useful Ukrainian combat power. Even still Crimea is extremely vulnerable right now in the long term because they are slowly being cut off from logistics. The rail road bridge is gone and the Uke’s now have the ability to range into the region with long range precision fires so the Russians can’t mass logistics even if they had trains they could run forward. If Crimea falls into disarray that could be the negotiation token Zelensky is waiting for to call for a negotiated withdrawal of Russian troops.


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[BashiChuni]

1 hour ago, ViperMan said:

Do you sincerely think this war would still be raging if Russia could win? Like, for real? Dude, come on. No. This "war" is now about Putin's pride and him being able to save face. Russia ain't winning shit.

Flip the script. 1991. It's taken us a year and a month and we're still not all the way to Baghdad. We've lost a 100,000 troops. Untold more have been maimed. Would you still think our victory was right around the corner if the shoe was on the other foot? It sounds like you would be quite the cheer leader. Victory is right around the corner!

Get real. Putin has lost. I mean holy shit, it hasn't even devolved into a state of insurgency yet. Putin doesn't have a guaranteed victory. It is far more likely that this war ends in a stalemate ala the Korean War.

Ok

[BashiChuni]

3 hours ago, Lawman said:

Well you’re definitively predicting a nuclear war if we continue doing what hasn’t produced one in the year it’s been going on. Or that the Chinese will save them despite seeming to be woefully unaware of all the problems they are facing in the near and far term.

And now you want to make this some Os vs Es nonsense because what? I’m a W anyway, so I’d call out stupidity regardless of it’s rank.


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Not what I predicted. 
 

Where did the O vs. E come from!? Happy you’re a W. And impressed you know classified information! Keep it “in the green” “bro”

[BashiChuni]

1 hour ago, ViperMan said:

Do you sincerely think this war would still be raging if Russia could win? Like, for real? Dude, come on. No. This "war" is now about Putin's pride and him being able to save face. Russia ain't winning shit.

Flip the script. 1991. It's taken us a year and a month and we're still not all the way to Baghdad. We've lost a 100,000 troops. Untold more have been maimed. Would you still think our victory was right around the corner if the shoe was on the other foot? It sounds like you would be quite the cheer leader. Victory is right around the corner!

Get real. Putin has lost. I mean holy shit, it hasn't even devolved into a state of insurgency yet. Putin doesn't have a guaranteed victory. It is far more likely that this war ends in a stalemate ala the Korean War.

I’m sure Germany thought exactly how you do back in 1942. Foolish. 

[Lawman]

Not what I predicted. 
 
Where did the O vs. E come from!? Happy you’re a W. And impressed you know classified information! Keep it “in the green” “bro”

“The arrogance of the officer corps…”

Though your general hostility viewed in that particular lens makes more sense.

Now you need to know you are amongst friends here. So please show us on the doll where the bad Major touched you. It’ll be ok.




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[BashiChuni]

Yeah. The officer corps is arrogant. That’s not a “O vs E thing”. It’s on display in this thread. 
 

military officers arrogantly wanting to poke the Russian bear in the eyes and arrogantly advocating to fight WW3 (lord ratner). This is the same professional officer class who pussied out the last 20 years in the GWOT and constantly told congress were “almost there” in Iraq and Afghanistan. Never had the balls to say “we are losing”. Never had the balls to put your (that’s a general “your”) careers on the line to call a spade a spade. Just happy to pass the buck and make the next rank. The same pussy officers who tout the “diversity is our strength” woke bull shit trope. 
 

 And now you mother fuckers think you’re so smart and can defeat a nuclear armed Russia? you think you’re so fucking smart to win at a geopolitical chess game with a country (Ukraine) no one gave two fucks about just a few years ago? Jesus Christ man. Talk about some unbridled arrogance.
 

Edited March 8, 2023 by BashiChuni

[Lawman]

Yeah. The officer corps is arrogant. That’s not a “O vs E thing”. It’s on display in this thread. 
 
military officers arrogantly wanting to poke the Russian bear in the eyes and arrogantly advocating to fight WW3 (lord ratner). This is the same professional officer class who pussied out the last 20 years in the GWOT and constantly told congress were “almost there” in Iraq and Afghanistan. Never had the balls to say “we are losing”. Never had the balls to put your (that’s a general “your”) careers on the line to call a spade a spade. Just happy to pass the buck and make the next rank. The same officers who tout the “diversity is our strength” woke bull shit trope. 
 
 And now you mother ers think you’re so smart and can defeat a nuclear armed Russia? you think you’re so ing smart to win at a geopolitical chess game with a country (Ukraine) no one gave two s about just a few years ago? Jesus Christ man. Talk about some unbridled arrogance.
 

….. k




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[ViperStud]

35 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

And now you mother fuckers think you’re so smart and can defeat a nuclear armed Russia? you think you’re so fucking smart to win at a geopolitical chess game with a country (Ukraine) no one gave two fucks about just a few years ago? Jesus Christ man. Talk about some unbridled arrogance.

1 - We, the officers of the USAF who choose to post on BODN, aren’t defeating anyone. Our country, the one you swore allegiance to, has collectively chosen to stand up to a strategic enemy as they fail. You should support that if your allegiance is to the USA rather than to some failed politician.

2 - the results of AFG and Iraq don’t rest on our shoulders. Bush, Obama and their secretaries aren’t posting here. You know damn well that if we had a say the policies involved in prosecuting those wars would have been different. 
 

3 - Everything you argue for amounts to appeasement. Read a Fvcking book about the first half of the 20th century. Educate yourself. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by ViperStud

[dream big]

10 hours ago, Stoker said:

We've sent $75 billion of aid total, and that includes near-expired or obsolete equipment and ammunition donated at book value. The war is almost certainly a net positive for the US economy - Europe is buying gas from us instead of the Russians, the developing world is getting their grain from Iowa instead of Ukraine, and the entire world is buying American military hardware instead of post Soviet crap or indigenously developed "better than nothing" gear.

All valid points, my point is try explaining that to your average struggling American voter.