DirkDiggler

Ha!! Your original post (before you edited it) might be one of the strangest flexes I've seen on Baseops in a hot minute. So you've been around a while, knew the founder of Baseops, have had lots of conversations, and probably knew BQZip's mom. Cool story Hansel. In regards to "original thoughts" Tucker Carlson's show on 28 Sep and the American Conservative (just to name a few) both drove the narrative that the US did this. I'm sure you thought of it first though. I had no idea that the center of resistance to the global monkeypox conspiracy was right here on Baseops forums. Learn something new everyday. One can only hope that with this experience we'll be better prepared for the next global elite disease conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids (or whatever that one was supposedly about). I'll leave it there with what I think is currently the funniest (but not my favorite) conspiracy theory out there.

Security Implications of Nord Stream Sabotage | Center for Strategic and International Studies (csis.org)

With any luck that new RAND corporation look alike whose reports you found so interesting in the Russia-Ukraine thread will publish a paper confirming that the US is indeed responsible. One can further hope that they tie it to whatever the global Monkeypox conspiracy currently is and we can revive that thread over in the Squadron Bar. FWIW, I've read several convincing reports on the dark web claiming that Jurgen Procknow has re-joined the Kriegsmarine and is gunning for one last shot at glory. Lotta people are speculating he hit the pipeline since he's old and doesn't drive so great anymore. It'd be pretty tough to get him down the ladder of the conning tower at his age but let's be real, you just can't replicate that experience level.

Bad day to be a Russian pilot yesterday. Seems the situation in the Kharkiv region is bad enough that the Russians are willing to accept high attrition of aviation assets to try and blunt the Ukrainian advance. Good to see the Stinger is still a leading distributor of MIG/SU parts across the globe.

https://apple.news/AyS893nNuQAKD-CQPj3d_Wg This article has a pretty good breakdown of what’s believed to be in this partial mobilization.

I’ll be the first admit that prior to the invasion I didn’t think the Russian military as a whole would perform this poorly. In retrospect it’s kinda not surprising given that Putin’s entire system is a kleptocracy; I’d imagine a good portion of military funding over the years actually purchased mega yachts and West London real estate. Overwhelming force is great until poor logistics, low morale, and precision fires fuck up your weekend. Couldn’t say on the nukes, don’t have any window into that world. I think the bigger question is whether there’s enough Putin loyalists in the launch chain to ensure preemptive nuclear strikes are carried out.

https://apple.news/AskpqBgwBTwSZ79CZZsr42g Not a good time to be a pro-Russian puppet in the occupied territories. Also find it interesting that fighting has flared up again on the Armenia-Azerbaijan front. Meanwhile apparently Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are resolving old territorial disputes with tanks and heavy artillery; Russia doesn’t have the schilz to weigh in on their traditional sphere of influence (right across their border) that it did 9 months ago. Mr. Putin isn’t looking like the “strategic genius/very smart guy/chess master he was claimed by some to be in early January.

Don’t know that I have an overall prediction at this point but the Ukrainians definitely seem to have the initiative/operational momentum. If you look at Oryx on Twitter the amount of equipment Russia has lost up north over just the last 3-4 days is pretty significant. Russia still has pretty large reserves but their manpower and morale problems, as well as logistical limitations, are starting to really show. Maybe the Russians might decide it’s time for a change in who’s in charge after this absolute abortion of a military operation. It’s going to get increasingly difficult to hide the scale of this disaster, even if the Russian military is able to stem the current Ukrainian advance. In any case I’m happy to continue to watch the Ukrainians kick the shit out of the Russian bear with the help of my tax dollars.

https://apple.news/ASbHOvukfQwq6SqyorX1ENQ Apparently they don’t mechanic so good. Real sad /s.

I’d put money on 3 nights or less but fair point.

Those -35s will give the Raptor guys (or Israelis) something to do if the ballon goes up.

Might also be worth calling up the local (or national) hotline to submit NOTAMs and put one in; pretty easy to do and will let everyone IVO know what’s going on.

Possible results of Ukrainian Wild Weasel sorties.

Great post and very well said.

Russia just keeps having trouble with their munitions dumps exploding.

There’s a dubbed Comanche language version if you really want to go nuts.

Lol wrong is wrong, glad to see that AFSOC went with a solid contender.

I don’t know man, how many threads on Baseops lately have devolved into garbage political pissing matches. Was kinda nice to have one dedicated to other funny shit.

I’m in no way, shape or form associated with AO so I can’t speak to the capes of the aircraft. I can say that this guy’s reasoning/data analysis on why he thinks it’s gonna be the AT-6 made a lot of sense to me. Official announcement is supposed to come by the end of the month.

Had a discussion with a guy who’s supposedly in the know on this yesterday; he’s pretty sure it’s gonna be the AT-6.