DirkDiggler

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/22/us-in-talks-with-qatar-over-supplying-lng-to-eu-reports If Russia's leverage over the EU's energy security is much diminished, the calculus for could change for Mr. Putin. Russia's economy is heavily reliant on the petroleum sector; sharply diminished exports, isolation from the SWIFT system, and cutting off Russia's largest banks from the Western market would make for an extremely turbulent and difficult time in Russia. This would be further exacerbated if a Russian invasion of Ukraine bogs down and/or is beset with heavy casualties. History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme. The Russia civil war happened only 100 years ago and while the political and military situation is very different, there are some parallels. If a Ukrainian invasion goes poorly, or ends in a brutal stalemate disaffecting the Russian people, and more importantly, the military, things could get tense in Russia. The ultimate irony of this is that while Russia (really Putin) plays the long game quite well in many instances, an all-out invasion of Ukraine will probably have an opposite effect of what he's trying gain (security and spheres of influence). Eastern European countries like Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic could conceivably start rapid military buildups/rearmament programs (Poland is already there in some respects). The have recent memories of what its like being under the Russian thumb. The Baltic States already contribute more than the obligatory 2% NATO requires on defense (a fact my Estonian friend was always very proud of); a further increase would be very likely as would an increase in invasion preparations like arms stockpiling for guerilla warfare, mining of LOCs, fortifications etc. Sweden and Finland would very likely apply for NATO membership. Even some of the Western European states might start an arms buildup (I see this as less likely for some though). BLUF is that for as strong as Russia is in some respects, they're far from invincible and actually quite vulnerable in many aspects. Russia has few allies and the ones it does have either aren't strong and/or don't trust Putin much more than we do (see Belarus and several of the Stans). Russia's military, while its made some significant advances in the last 15 years, isn't the Soviet military juggernaut of 1945 or 1980. M2's Baseops signature block still holds some truth today.

My guess (speculating) is that this was intentional on NATO's part. It would be very easy for the Russians to use something like allowing overflight of weapons by the German government as justification/pretext of "Ukraine is sliding further toward neo-nazism (something they've already been hyping to the Russian population), NATO is getting ready to invade, remember what the Germans did in WWII and they're coming again, etc" type stuff. Better for us on the information warfare front left of bang for the Brits to do what they did.

Pretty comprehensive analysis of the Ukraine crisis with some good recommendations going forward. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine

I'm starting drift towards her viewpoint (was honestly on the fence for a while, wasn't sure what I thought of the situation). Putin's list of demands for this latest round of "negotiations" read like something from the late 19th century, or maybe 1938-39. Either way most of those demands are non-starters. At a minimum, in addition to what you mentioned above, I think we should start providing additional heavy conventional armaments to Poland and the Baltic states. Army has reactivated its European long range artillery unit I believe. Maybe its time to station an armored division or two in Poland permanently as well. F-35s to Romania. Reactivate a NATO led Baltic Sea flotilla formed around small SAGs. I'm sure there's reasons why all this is a bad idea but letting Putin reestablish a new Russian empire at the expense of our allies and at least a semblance of the international order is horseshit.

Kinda controversial but interesting article regarding US/European response to Putin's aggression in Ukraine. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/us-must-prepare-war-against-russia-over-ukraine/360639/

Is an assignment to CVS going to drive me into homemade toilet wine production?

MC-130H

No idea honestly. I'll probably have better insight once I get the download from my friend but that won't be for another couple weeks. It seems unfortunate; as an outsider looking in I thought this was a good concept and had potential to be productive.

He's in a bit of a weird spot; he's a LtCol (so older) and his previous MWS is retiring in 20 months.

Thread revival (and also maybe termination). A good buddy of mine was in the first 13O training class; he told me this weekend that the AF is terminating the the 13O career field and that he needs a job. Anybody else hear the same?

Had a really good buddy take this route. He punched at 13 years for the airlines. He didn't get hired by the flying unit at his airline domicile (tough unit to get into) and he didn't want to commute to a Guard/Reserve job. He ended up taking a non-flying Exec position at a Guard Mx Group (think it was Guard) at his airline domicile location. He said the job/work is boring but it was his insurance in case the airlines went tits up. Low and behold, COVID happens; he was able to pickup a year of orders while waiting the his airline to sort itself out.

Good article on Putin/Russia's view regarding Russian power, and Ukrainian neutrality. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/01/10/why_neutrality_is_no_answer_for_ukraine_811228.html

I hadn't heard about this at all until today. The AFSOC/CC just put out an official statement on Instagram regarding it. https://www.instagram.com/p/CYaE5UflyRo/

This info is 14 years old so take it with a grain of salt. I went to SOS with a Viper driver (previous B-1 WSO, not sure which he was when he was matched) who had been a bone marrow donor. He didn't make any specific comments regarding the AF medical process (at least he didn't say he had any issues with it) itself but he did reinforce that the recovery was pretty rough (they're driving large bore needles into your pelvis/legs I believe). He said he was on crutches for a week and it was a pretty painful recovery. That said, he was pretty happy he was able to help (rightfully so) and said he was back flying not too long after the procedure. I'd tell you to reach out to your local Flight Doc but given my recent experiences there's a good chance they may not know what bone marrow is. Best of luck!

Thanks for that, I actually lol'd. Back on my first deployment as a young 1Lt, I had a Nav who, while a good dude, was super loud/brash and would forget his head if it wasn't attached to his body. He kept leaving his shit all over ops and the plane, so by month two of the deployment pretty everything he owned had hogs drawn all over it. He finally loses his shit one day on the all of us in ops, yelling, unspecified threats towards the next mofo that draws a dick on his stuff, pretty epic rant honestly. After a couple minutes of this he storms out the door in a very angry fashion. Unfortunately for him he forgets his snack banana, left it lying on the table. No one says a word. I picked the banana up and drew a big veiny triumphant bastard on said banana. 5 minutes later he comes back in to get his snack, picks it up and sees this giant cock drawn on the side of it with the whole crew sitting there silently staring at him. Hangs his head in defeat, unpeels it (looking disturbing like very loose foreskin at this point), and walks out the door.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/01/06/putins_calculation_for_war_is_sincere_810817.html Very good article on Putin's Ukraine calculus.

Mosul on Netflix is worth watching if you have some spare time and are looking for a war movie. Pretty good depiction of brutal urban combat against ISIS. Plot was a little thin but was still overall a well done movie.

Not directly related to the current Russia-Ukrainian tensions, but it will be interesting to see if the situation in Kazakhstan effects or influences Russian (really Putin's) decision making with regards to Ukraine. Russia loathes instability on it's borders, Nazarbayev was solidly in Putin's orbit (one of the last "old school" USSR types besides Lushenko in Belarus), and by all accounts the current instability has caught the Russians off-guard. If the CTSO "peacekeeping force" employs the standard heavy handed repression the Russians are known for things could get messy there. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

Don't mean to derail this thread but this topic is something that interests and affects me. While I haven't seen a decrease in the quality of the UPT product, our community has gotten much, much younger in all positions, to include IPs (instructors in all crew positions really). In some ways this is a positive, since previously the time to upgrade to IP in AFSOC was sometimes excessive/out of whack with other communities. And honestly there's some high speed dudes that have both benefited from it and had good return on investment to the guys on the line. In other ways I think it's been a negative. In the last 3 years I've heard more incorrect/poorly considered techniques and sometimes downright wrong concepts/tactics than in my previous 15 years. I also think that the ops tempo, as you discussed, has led to a serious reduction in the amount of time IPs have to spend with new copilots. Finally, I think the airline hiring spree is about to crush the MC community. The AF got a reprieve for 18 months in the form of COVID, but now I'm seeing a large chunk of the O-4 IP/EP 2-3,000 hour guys either punching or on the verge of doing so. I've read/been presented the Shaw Class A. It was a tough read, especially as a senior IP. I wholeheartedly agree with your point about FTU instruction versus line instruction; the two just aren't the same. It's not cosmic, but how a line IP approaches student training versus an FTU IP is just a different mentality (and sometime skill set) that I didn't fully appreciate until I was an FTU IP. I'm absolutely not against improving/modernizing our UPT syllabus, but I'm of the personal opinion that actual hours in the airplane CANNOT be replicated, regardless of the level of technology present in whatever training device is being used. Back on topic, think the AF will bump the bonus back up to $35K this year?

What are the big changes in the new syllabus (especially for the T-1 MAF/AFSOC tracked guys)? In the 2.5 years I've been back flying from staff, my community has seemed to win the co-pilot lottery (most of the new guys have been average to above average). We've also gotten more than the average amount of T-38 guys than I've usually seen. A couple folks I know on the AETC side of the house have been foretelling this coming wave of drastically less capable pilots coming out of the pipeline but I haven't personally seen it yet.

Thankfully I bought right before things went really crazy in the market where I’m at. Assuming no issues with the inspection/appraisal I’m about to make a stupid amount of money on a house I’ve only owned for 2.5 years.

My current location went up almost $500….two months before I PCS

Fucking awesome pic. If a military member was interested in this as a career post military retirement, how early would you recommend starting the app and networking process?

That was a really good read for an abstract, thanks for posting. One of the best guest speakers I've ever listened to was a Ph.D advisor to NDU, she was a specialist on international energy security/politics; she came and spoke to us while I was at JPMEII. Energy security is a huge part of and a major consideration in most countries' foreign policy; until the EU is able to secure additional energy sources outside of Russian gas Putin will hold some sway over the continent.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/12/08/putin_can_take_eastern_ukraine_but_he_wont_like_what_he_gets_806873.html Good article about some of the challenges Putin would face in a Ukrainian invasion.