I'm a career AGR and there's no fucking way I'd take an ART job, even though I'm not an airline bound guy. Put simply, the 2.5% multiplier of an Active duty year is worth a hell of a lot more than the bullshit 1% FERS multiplier. Another thing people are missing, the FERS retirement for new hires since oh 2014, requires a yearly vesting fee of 4.4%!!! compared to goose egg for the military retirement. The FEHB offering is also expensive compared to Tricare. ART Pay is also 100% taxable vice AGR. It's just not anywhere near parity. The ART job nickle and dimes your paycheck to death, for a lower multiplier retirement.
The value of buying back AD time is diluted when you consider you gotta wait until 50-whatever to collect the Reserve one to give you parity with the AD one, and you still have to do 5 physical years, you just can't buy back and call it time served. Nevermind you're doing so to shift down from 2.5% to 1% per creditable year. Maybe if they extended ARTs the fedral LEO multiplier you'd have a deal. Alas, nothing.
If I knock out an active duty retirement in my late 40s (in my case) you'd have to make up that entire disbursement over 15 years, compared to me going and doing something else with my life and getting a monthly retainer check for waking up in the morning. And that's the problem with the ART calculus: It assumes you'd have no other option than doing the exact same shit you're doing right now, which just isn't the case for most dudes. Even if you know you're gonna hold on to this job until they kick you out at 57-60, you'd still be better off doing 20 AD in the AGR program and then mulling over if you want to continue as an ART for 5 years or whatever you need to tide you over. But that only works if you hussle all the way to fully vested retirement. If you stop short of that as an ART (the whole "it's only 5 years" vesting premise), you would have been better off getting an AD retirement, collecting a check immediately, and done something else with your life....
..and the reason is that put simply: I don't need half a mil at 80, I need that money today so I can have a life while I'm young and active. Check of the month club in my 40s and 50s allows me the flexibility to reinvent myself without concern for the initial paycut. That's gonna be a different and personal answer for everybody. If you know for a fact there's nothing else you'd rather do between now and 60, go ART and have a nut. I don't have that kind of certainty in my life, certainly not anymore.
For me it's all about that Time value of money homey, and I'm not just talking about compounding. Youth has a $$$ equivalent to me. Lower but earlier disbursement is more valuable to me than later/higher. I can guarantee myself today, tomorrow is not owed to me. That math is really not complicated.
It matters not though. In AFRC the manning picture tells the tale. The ART program was 55% manned last time I gave a crap and looked at it. That was immediately followed by the retrofit ART-to-AGR restoration, which is why ARPC has been sucking hind teet on the personnel management/order cutting front for the last 3 FYs. Proof is in the pudding, the rank and file overwhelmingly favors the AGR. Even with it, manning on the full time side is not anywhere near 100%. So Occam's Razor. I digress.