We're conflating topics here gentlemen. AFRC white jet dude != AD white jet dude. Much to the grimacing of Active Duty, there is a difference, or at least there used to be one. Invol IA for the institutional reserves is a game changer, and one that the sycophants at the puzzle palace seem to be seriously underestimating.
AFRC does 22% of UPT/IFF/PIT pull on 17% of the effective manning. AETC is already on the record stating they cannot meet current production, let alone the surge, without the AFRC piece. Even the pipe dream of some in AETC, the elimination of the Reserve Associate IP Program, is statistical vaporware in a regAF already 2000 flyers in the red at-large.
Pulling this invol non-flying IA stunt will yield effective manning below 50% in the less desirable GSUs for the AFRC side, just like the Navy Reserve folks learned in the late 00s/early 10s, as @Buddy Spike already alluded to.
The BL is that this will directly impact AETC's ability to come up with the pilot production surge HAF is clamoring for, especially in these new days of UPT-Next and other assorted faggotry. Regardless of the fact we all understand the AF has a retention problem and NOT a production one, the fact remains UPT is the flavor of the year for HAF, good bad or indifferent. This move will not help AETC. It would be ironic if they had any hand in suggesting this myopic COA to the HAF against their supporting MAJCOM (AFRC). I have not heard any supporting evidence that AETC had a hand in this, so I'll reserve judgement on that end.
At the end of the day, and as far as I'm concerned, AFRC just showed their cards. There's no going back now. There's is no amount of dollars they could throw at me in this environment to sign a retention agreement of any kind in the AFRC or ANG.
Maybe wiser heads will prevail, maybe not. But they are truly asleep at the wheel if they don't recognize the sheer attrition they're about to cause themselves by doubling down on this checkers-move decision that benefits neither AETC or AFRC, only CENTCOM. Biggest moral hazard I've seen in all my years in AFRC. This isn't bluffing, the Navy Res has all the data already. How the eff do you think we know? We hired their exodus!